New opportunities to compensate for setbacks in foreign policy


As social movements broke out in Tunisia, Egypt and Syria, Ankara chose to lend an ear to the voice of Arab streets instead of maintaining relations with regional regimes. The cost of this principled attitude shown to the Arab Spring was high for foreign relations. The relations and achievements Ankara successfully accumulated in a delicate balance since the beginning of the 2000s was harmed for the near and coming future. Relations with Iraq were suspended for a long time and the conflict in Syria started to clearly threaten Turkey's borders. Turkey had to host 1.6 million Syrian refugees. The incidents in Syria also poisoned relations between Turkey and Russia, which are two powerful partners of the region. Meanwhile, Iran did not abstain from showing hostility to Turkey by directly taking a side in the conflict in Syria.Acting with the requirements of democratic concerns and human rights, Ankara also reacted against the military coup staged in Egypt that overthrew the democratically elected government of Mohammed Morsi. Turkey did so while the U.S., EU and international public ignored the coup. As Turkey objected to the coup, it started to have problems with Gulf capital and countries. The pro-coup Egyptian regime was involved in an oil and gas partnership in the Eastern Mediterranean with Greek Cyprus and Israel, with whom Ankara has problems. In other words, Turkey confronted a new balance and a new threat in the Eastern Mediterranean along with the Middle East.The regional cost Ankara paid does not consist of that. The U.S. and EU did not provide the required support for the Arab Spring, ignored the Arab streets and the coup in Egypt and endeavored to involve Turkey in some initiatives in Syria that contradict the country's interests. This all caused Ankara to have problems with some of its allies, including the U.S.The picture we portrayed so far is on the costs Turkish foreign relations has paid and the threat Turkey faces in a period when the Middle East is in chaos. Well, will it always continue this way? A space for new moves and opportunities is now emerging for Ankara. It was eventually understood that the rigid sectarian policies of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of Iraq tangled the country. Maliki lost his seat and Ankara and Baghdad renewed relations once again upon that. Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu paid a visit to Baghdad and the relations between the two countries are rapidly being reformed.The second development is about Russia. At the beginning of this week, President Vladimir Putin of Russia came to Ankara a day after Pope Francis completed his visit to Turkey. It is necessary to evaluate his visit in the context of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, which invaded and annexed Crimea, and the extraordinary drop in oil prices that is greatly affecting Moscow. Putin is answering the EU and U.S., who try to punish Russia, through getting closer to Turkey. Within this context, Putin announced in Ankara that Russia cancelled the South Stream Line that would transfer oil to Europe, using its energy card against Europe. Instead of the South Stream Project, a new energy distribution center will be established along Turkey's Greek border. Russia will sell liquefied gas from here to world markets, except Europe.A third development might be experienced with the U.S. in relation to Syria. Busy traffic between senior officials is ongoing with the U.S. Firstly, Gen. John Allen, U.S. President Barack Obama's lead coordinator for the international coalition against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), and then U.S. Vice President Joe Biden came to Turkey in the previous week. The Syrian crisis and the fight against ISIS were tabled during negotiations. Some sources from Ankara said the U.S. got closer to Turkey's position on Syria.The U.S. asked to use Turkey's İncirlik Air Base to fly anti-ISIS missions. Some allege that it also demands land forces from Turkey. Ankara also requires that Bashar Assad be removed from power while fighting against ISIS and to train opposition groups fighting against both ISIS and Assad. It also demands no-fly zones and safe zones where refugees could reside along the Turkish border in Syria. No problem remained on the matter of training opposition fighters. However, in official statements, Washington emphasizes that they do not really favor the ideas of a no-fly zone and safe zone. According to talks in the corridors, the U.S. might make different remarks in public and behind the scenes because it is said that the matters of a safe zone and no-fly zone were on the agenda during the negotiations conducted with the U.S. The name of the no-fly zone has not been determined, according to claims. It is now being discussed whether it would be a "no-fly zone" or an "air-exclusion zone."