Russia: Untouchable no more
As pundits were busy debating whether or not the incident might lead to a Russo-Turkish war, the U.S., EU and NATO sided with Turkey by documenting the Russian downed jet was indeed in Turkish airspace.
When Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war by launching airstrikes against the regime's opponents in September, hardly anyone thought something bad was going to happen. By deploying troops and the Russian Air Forces to Syria ahead of the Vienna talks, the Kremlin wanted to strengthen Syrian President Bashar Assad's hand and, at the very least, carve out a piece of land for the regime around Latakia - with Russian military bases on it. Under the pretext of fighting DAESH, the Russians have since been targeting a number of moderate rebel organizations with no known ties to the terrorists.
Just like in Ukraine, the Russian military has been like a bull in a china shop. Facing no challenge from either the United States or the European Union, the Kremlin has developed a mafia-style foreign policy, which puts military power above everything else, and proceeded to follow its own rules without interruption. Encouraged by a sense of impunity, Moscow had been trying to strongarm a number of Eastern European countries and put pressure on international organizations. In the end, an overdose of self-confidence led the Kremlin to hurt the interests of all countries with which Russia pretended to work closely: Not only has the Russian military been targeting moderate rebels backed by Turkey and the United States but also Russian fighter jets did repeatedly violate Turkey's airspace. The initial transgressions took place on Oct. 4-5 and left the Turkish government notably frustrated. (I discussed Turkey's response in greater detail on Oct. 12 and noted that Turkey had officially told the Russians that it would respond to future violations in accordance with the rules of military engagement.) At the time, a Turkish government official, recalling the recent downing of an unmanned aircraft, had warned that "we cannot avoid similar incidents in the future unless Russia abandons its policy of aggression."
For Turkey, the Kremlin's most unsettling move took place last week, as the Turkmen community in northwestern Syria's Bayırbucak region came under fire by Russian jets and the Assad regime's ground forces. Ironically, there were no DAESH militants in the area, where Moscow unconvincingly claimed to combat the terrorists. According to Turkish officials, the Russian campaign sought to accomplish two goals:
(1) To secure the Khmeimim Air Base, the primary hub for Moscow's air bombardments. Turkey believes that the moderate rebels' advances toward Latakia triggered a heavy response from Russia, which has since reinforced the base with S-400 missiles.
(2) To prevent a joint military operation by Turkey and the United States against DAESH positions near Jarabulus. Instead, the Kremlin would like to facilitate the capture of Jarabulus by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) forces to help create a direct route to the Mediterranean.
In an interesting turn of events, Turkey downed an unidentified warplane which ignored at least 10 warnings and proceeded to violate the Turkish airspace on Nov. 24. Within hours, it became clear that the downed jet was a Russian Sukhoi Su-24, whose picture appeared on the front page of every major newspaper around the world. As pundits were busy debating whether or not the incident might lead to a Russo-Turkish war, the U.S., EU and NATO sided with Turkey - which, they said, had documented that the plane was shot down in its airspace.In the meantime, escalating tensions between Ankara and Moscow reached new heights as Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Turkey to apologize for the shootdown, offer compensation and discipline the Turkish pilots who downed the violator. In response, the Turkish government adopted a rational and diplomatic approach to stand its ground and turn down the request for an apology. "We won't apologize to Russia. Instead, those who violated our airspace should offer an apology," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told CNN International's Becky Anderson on Thursday. Turkish government officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, maintained that Turkey merely protected its sovereignty rights by downing the Russian jet. Meanwhile, public statements by the Turkish leaders indicate that the country would like to leave the incident behind and de-escalate the situation. At a time when certain Russian universities have decided to terminate their contracts with Turkish colleges, a Russian politician has called on Putin to "destroy Istanbul with a nuclear missile strike." Having hardly launched any airstrikes against DAESH in Syria, the Kremlin has even accused Turkey, a country fighting the terrorists alongside the U.S., of supporting DAESH. Unfortunately, Moscow's response to the shootdown has been nothing short of uncontrollably irrational.The reason behind the Kremlin's frenzy is a thinly-veiled secret: For the first time since 1952, a NATO member has downed a Russian aircraft. For the first time since the Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war, a Russian soldier has lost his life. And for the first time in a long time, a country has reminded the Russians that there are certain limits to their power. As Turkey downed the Su-24, Moscow's impunity came to an abrupt end - which, almost overnight, led to a new wave of criticism toward Russia in a number of countries bullied by the Kremlin. One would hope that Moscow will draw important lessons from the affair and avoid new adventures in the Middle East.
Just like in Ukraine, the Russian military has been like a bull in a china shop. Facing no challenge from either the United States or the European Union, the Kremlin has developed a mafia-style foreign policy, which puts military power above everything else, and proceeded to follow its own rules without interruption. Encouraged by a sense of impunity, Moscow had been trying to strongarm a number of Eastern European countries and put pressure on international organizations. In the end, an overdose of self-confidence led the Kremlin to hurt the interests of all countries with which Russia pretended to work closely: Not only has the Russian military been targeting moderate rebels backed by Turkey and the United States but also Russian fighter jets did repeatedly violate Turkey's airspace. The initial transgressions took place on Oct. 4-5 and left the Turkish government notably frustrated. (I discussed Turkey's response in greater detail on Oct. 12 and noted that Turkey had officially told the Russians that it would respond to future violations in accordance with the rules of military engagement.) At the time, a Turkish government official, recalling the recent downing of an unmanned aircraft, had warned that "we cannot avoid similar incidents in the future unless Russia abandons its policy of aggression."
For Turkey, the Kremlin's most unsettling move took place last week, as the Turkmen community in northwestern Syria's Bayırbucak region came under fire by Russian jets and the Assad regime's ground forces. Ironically, there were no DAESH militants in the area, where Moscow unconvincingly claimed to combat the terrorists. According to Turkish officials, the Russian campaign sought to accomplish two goals:
(1) To secure the Khmeimim Air Base, the primary hub for Moscow's air bombardments. Turkey believes that the moderate rebels' advances toward Latakia triggered a heavy response from Russia, which has since reinforced the base with S-400 missiles.
(2) To prevent a joint military operation by Turkey and the United States against DAESH positions near Jarabulus. Instead, the Kremlin would like to facilitate the capture of Jarabulus by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) forces to help create a direct route to the Mediterranean.
In an interesting turn of events, Turkey downed an unidentified warplane which ignored at least 10 warnings and proceeded to violate the Turkish airspace on Nov. 24. Within hours, it became clear that the downed jet was a Russian Sukhoi Su-24, whose picture appeared on the front page of every major newspaper around the world. As pundits were busy debating whether or not the incident might lead to a Russo-Turkish war, the U.S., EU and NATO sided with Turkey - which, they said, had documented that the plane was shot down in its airspace.In the meantime, escalating tensions between Ankara and Moscow reached new heights as Russian President Vladimir Putin urged Turkey to apologize for the shootdown, offer compensation and discipline the Turkish pilots who downed the violator. In response, the Turkish government adopted a rational and diplomatic approach to stand its ground and turn down the request for an apology. "We won't apologize to Russia. Instead, those who violated our airspace should offer an apology," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told CNN International's Becky Anderson on Thursday. Turkish government officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, maintained that Turkey merely protected its sovereignty rights by downing the Russian jet. Meanwhile, public statements by the Turkish leaders indicate that the country would like to leave the incident behind and de-escalate the situation. At a time when certain Russian universities have decided to terminate their contracts with Turkish colleges, a Russian politician has called on Putin to "destroy Istanbul with a nuclear missile strike." Having hardly launched any airstrikes against DAESH in Syria, the Kremlin has even accused Turkey, a country fighting the terrorists alongside the U.S., of supporting DAESH. Unfortunately, Moscow's response to the shootdown has been nothing short of uncontrollably irrational.The reason behind the Kremlin's frenzy is a thinly-veiled secret: For the first time since 1952, a NATO member has downed a Russian aircraft. For the first time since the Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war, a Russian soldier has lost his life. And for the first time in a long time, a country has reminded the Russians that there are certain limits to their power. As Turkey downed the Su-24, Moscow's impunity came to an abrupt end - which, almost overnight, led to a new wave of criticism toward Russia in a number of countries bullied by the Kremlin. One would hope that Moscow will draw important lessons from the affair and avoid new adventures in the Middle East.