With the Großmacht (large power) reflex left behind from the empire era, Germany has all too often interfered in the politics of other countries, putting bilateral relations between Ankara and Berlin in danger, Kemal İnat, a professor from Sakarya University, argued in his interview with Daily Sabah. Pointing to some "obstacles" German authorities face to achieve normalization with the Turkish government, including Germany's support for the PKK terrorist organization and Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) as well as smear campaigns against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkey, İnat underlined that there can be no possibility for Germany to go back to the times of good relations with Turkey in the short term unless it breaks its habit of interference.

Turkish-German relations experienced a new low in recent days when the German foreign minister threatened a full "overhaul" of Turkey relations, implying that economic sanctions on its NATO ally and EU candidate country Turkey must be imposed.

Prominent academic Professor Kemal İnat from Sakarya University believes that German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel's remarks about Turkey is closely related to the upcoming German elections in September and draws attention to the latest polls that show that the SPD's estimated vote could decrease to 23 percent, lagging behind the CDU/CSU bloc by 15 percent and therefore, SPD leader Martin Schulz and Gabriel's increasingly harsh statements against Turkey should be perceived as an attempt to persuade their possible coalition partners.

According to Professor İnat, who obtained his Ph.D. in the University of Siegen, Germany is acting in accordance with the Großmacht (large power) reflex of the empire era, especially in its relations with Turkey, and he stressed if Germany is to continue to act like the leader of Europe and interfere in the politics of other countries, relations between Turkey and Germany won't be normalizing any time soon.

Underlining that normalization of Turkish-German relations is the rational choice, İnat emphasized that there are certain obstacles to achieving normalization and the previous level of good relations, such as Germany's support to the PKK terrorist organization and Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) as well as smear campaigns against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Turkey. Drawing attention to Germany's soured relations with some EU countries, Professor İnat believes that Germany's relations with Turkey and other European countries will be normalized in the short term if Merkel renounces her attempts to dominate Europe and starts to respect other countries' sovereignty.

Daily Sabah: How do you evaluate the ongoing crisis between Turkey and Germany?

Kemal İnat: Actually, it's interesting that Germany, known for its rationality, is escalating tensions with Turkey without a reason. This is an unusual divergence in terms of the foreign policy of Federal Germany that was established in 1949 after World War II because this state defined itself as a "trade state," emphasizing economic interests, while shying away from power and influence policies.

However, when we look at today's government of Germany, we can clearly see that it's acting in accordance with the Grossmacht (large power) reflex of the Empire era, especially in its relations with Turkey, meanwhile determining influence areas and interfering in the conduct of countries in these areas. It can be assumed that Germany surviving the financial crisis in Europe and consolidating its dominating position in the EU is effective in this new policy. We shouldn't forget that the technocratic governments of Greece and Italy were mostly determined by Germany. Known as "the savior of countries in crisis," Germany is possibly having "Grossmacht" nostalgia.

Another development that reminded Germany of Grossmacht reflexes might be U.S. President Donald Trump's attacks on the German economy. Focusing on economic development by relying on the U.S. after World War II, Germany is now receiving demands and threats (decreasing trade surplus, increasing military expenditure, economic sanctions on German companies and sanctions on Russia that target Germany's natural gas trade with the country), which in turn led to Chancellor Merkel stating, "Europe has to take care of itself." This statement also means that Europe no longer accepts U.S. leadership and will determine its own fate.

D.S.: Which country would try to become the leader of Europe in the absence of the U.S.?

K.İ.: Looking at Germany's recent policies on Turkey, Greece, Italy, Poland and Hungary, it's clear that they are playing for leadership. We can regard the said policies of Germany as an attempt at marshaling. We see that Germany is interfering in the domestic policies of the aforementioned countries; the reason is sometimes economic stability, democracy or human rights. In accordance with this policy, Germany interferes with the wage raise of civil servants in Italy and Greece, while also standing against constitutional reforms in Turkey and Poland.

Therefore, we should see the ongoing crisis between Turkey and Germany as a part of these policies. As is the case with many countries in Europe, Berlin's intense interference in Turkey's domestic policies are discomforting for Ankara. This crisis isn't something new. The German government, which adopted a harsh policy against Turkey with the Gezi Park protests, made the situation worse by enabling a smear campaign against Turkey in politics and the media, seemingly supporting the putschists during and after the attempted coup of July 15, advocating "no" during the campaign for the April 16 referendum and lastly making a call that means an economic boycott of Turkey.

D.S.: Looking at statements made by Germany during the last week, we see that CDU Chairwoman and Chancellor Merkel was relatively silent, while Minister of Foreign Affairs Sigmar Gabriel of coalition partner SPD made some harsh statements about Turkey. What's behind the SPD's statement?

It's all about elections and the coalition the SPD wants to form. Germany will have a parliamentary election on Sept. 24, and Martin Schulz's chairmanship of the SPD and candidacy for chancellor didn't improve their chances against Merkel. During the time when Martin Schulz's candidacy was announced, there was an increase in the SPD's estimated votes, raising them to 32 percent, which was about 2 percent lower than the CDU/CSU bloc. However, because people didn't trust Schulz's ideological and adventurous policies, it decreased immediately. The last polls show that the SPD's estimated vote decreased to 23 percent, lagging behind the CDU/CSU bloc by 15 percent.

This is why the SPD is making such statements about Turkey. Schulz, seeing that he won't be able to prevent Merkel from securing her fourth term as chancellor, seemingly forced Minister of Foreign Affairs Sigmar Gabriel, who is known for his rationality, to make the aforementioned statement on Turkey. As you know, anti-Turkish sentiments worked in the Netherlands. Mark Rutte showed that he was as anti-Turkish as Geert Wilders and won the election. Similarly, Sebastian Kurz is trying to win the election over anti-Turkish sentiments in Austria.

Thus, in Europe and especially in countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Austria, anti-Erdoğan and Turkish notions that were exacerbated in the last three or four years have become a reality that politicians should consider. There is a mass that has anti-Turkish and Erdoğan sentiments, and politicians want to have a share of them. They want to transform people's anti-Turkish notions into votes.

The SPD, being desperate against Merkel, wants to benefit from already existing anti-Turkish and Erdoğan notions by resorting to populism. They are trying to act like they're "putting Turkey in its place" and creating a perception that Merkel is passive in these matters – all in order to persuade the voters to vote for them. They believe that Merkel won't be able to strike back because of the Refugee Agreement with Turkey.

Schulz and the SPD are also thinking about forming a leftist coalition by breaking the taboo and including the Left Party (Die Linke). All parties were rejecting forming a coalition with the Left Party whom they perceived as overly ideological. Now, we see that the SPD led by Schulz is trying to form a leftist coalition with the Greens and the Left Party. Considering that these two parties lead the anti-Erdoğan and Turkish discourses, Schulz and Gabriel's increasingly harsh statements against Turkey should be perceived as an attempt to persuade their possible coalition partners.

D.S.: In your opinion, how long will tensions continue between the two countries? Do you expect the tensions to decline after the elections?

It will depend on the election results. It seems not very probable, but if the SPD, the Left Party and Greens form a leftist coalition, it will worsen relations between Turkey and Germany. As I have said, the Left Party and Greens are negative towards a Turkey led by President Erdoğan. At times, we even see that the Left Party acts like an opposition party of Turkey, hinting at the extent of their anti-Turkish notions. For instance, during the April 16 referendum campaign, Co-Chair Katja Kipping and Group President Sahra Wagenknecht were clearly against the constitutional reform proposed to the people and acted in favor of the "no" campaign through their statements in written, visual and social media. It's known that this party has many PKK members in its ranks along with MPs who are sympathetic towards the PKK. This party becoming a coalition partner will further irrationalize Turkish-German relations and cause wounds that will be hard to mend.

Similar things can also be said about the other leftist party, the Greens. It's known that high-ranking officials of the party, including Cem Özdemir and Claudia Roth, are interested in the domestic policies of Turkey and openly support radical groups that are against the AK Party's rule. Similarly, the Greens also opposed the proposed constitutional reform in Turkey and they were against Turkish people making their own decision. Considering that the Schulz-led SPD is inclined towards a more radical stance because of Schulz's ideology and populist reasons, it is clear that a possible leftist coalition in Germany will have adverse effects in relations between Turkey and Germany.

If the CDU/CSU wins the election, relations with Turkey will be largely determined by Merkel, even though there might be some slight changes, depending on the parties they form a coalition with. In this respect, if Germany is to continue to act like the leader of Europe and interfere in the politics of other countries, relations between Turkey and Germany won't be normalizing any time soon. Merkel further influencing policies will mean that the tensions will continue to exist, even if they won't be as harmful as the leftist coalition. However, if Merkel renounces her attempts to dominate Europe and starts to respect other countries' sovereignty, Germany's relations with Turkey and other European countries will be normalized in the short-term.

D.S.: In statements, the German government stated that they were very patient with Turkey and that they will give a new direction to their Turkish policies. What kind of a change do you foresee in relations between Turkey and Germany after these statements?

As I have said, these statements are connected with the new direction the SPD has taken with Martin Schulz and the SPD's low rating in the polls. Merkel and the CDU, on the other hand, won't be able to completely forsake anti-Turkish voters to the SPD; ultimately, all political parties focus on grasping or maintaining power, rather than national interests, during elections.

For this reason, one should expect harsher statements from Turkey until the election has concluded. Not wanting to risk the Refugee Agreement, Merkel will be more moderate in comparison to other politicians; however, their ever-escalating anti-Turkish notions will also force Merkel's hand. We shouldn't forget that Merkel's party, the CDU, and its coalition partner, the CSU, have many deputies who advocate employing anti-Turkish notions in Germany to win the elections.

D.S.: According to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution's (BfV) 2016 Anti-Terror Report, there are 14,000 PKK members active in Germany. Considering that the PKK is an organization blacklisted by the EU, how do you evaluate the PKK's unobstructed activities in Germany?

Germany's policy about the PKK is scandalous, to say the least. Countries being lenient or supportive to certain terrorist organizations that threaten the security of other countries are a reality in international relations. Unfortunately, in some cases, states may use terrorist organizations as a tool for foreign policy, despite their anti-terror discourses. However, the relation between the PKK and Germany seems extraordinary in this respect. Germany is one of Turkey's NATO allies, and we know that fighting against terrorism is a prominent aspect of the post-Cold War NATO.

As a NATO ally, Germany is expected to support Turkey in the fight against the PKK. Moreover, the EU also defines the PKK as a terrorist organization. Considering these facts, Germany allowing the PKK to recruit people, collect funds, propagate anti-Turkish notions through their representatives in politics and the media should be perceived as Germany's passive support to the terrorist organization. Disregarding Turkey's call for cooperation against the terrorist organization, Germany preventing President Erdoğan from making a speech at a rally organized by Turkish citizens in Germany, while allowing PKK leaders to speak freely at meetings organized by the terrorist organization is a scandal. Moreover, it's against the basic norms of international law.

Last week, FETÖ's Germany imam Ercan Karakoyun said, "Germany is becoming a new center for the Hizmet movement" in his Die Zeit interview. What is your take on this issue?

Germany's leniency towards the PKK seems to encourage FETÖ as well. On the other hand, it's known that FETÖ members who fled Turkey after the Dec. 17-25 and July 15 coup attempts were received well in Germany. Federal Intelligence Service (BND) President Bruno Kahl's statement that he "isn't convinced FETÖ is behind the coup attempt" and Justice Minister Heiko Maas's statement about not extraditing FETÖ members to Turkey both show that Germany is a safe harbor for the terrorist organization.

Known for its anti-refugee notions, CSU Secretary General Andreas Scheuer's eagerness to provide sanctuary to FETÖ fugitives seems to further encourage the terrorist organization. FETÖ members may also be hoping that the German government is using them as a tool for Turkish policies, just like the PKK.

D.S.: Considering all this, what will be the fate of relations between Turkey and Germany in the midterm?

K.İ.: It should be indicated that relations between these two countries are important to each of them. It's clear that both Turkey and Germany depend on each other in terms of economy and security. This need for cooperation has constantly brought Germany and Turkey together throughout the century. Even though they went their separate ways for a while after both world wars, they always converged on security and economy.

Normalization of Turkish-German relations is the rational choice; however, there are certain obstacles to achieving normalization and the previous level of good relations. With the smear campaigns against President Erdoğan, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and Turkey in Germany, the people of Germany now have a negative perception towards Turkey. Moreover, allowing the extreme left and right that conducted these smear campaigns created a significant anti-Turkish lobby in Germany.

As German governments believed that AK Party rule would be toppled as a result of these campaigns and that the new government in Turkey would have better relations with Germany, they enabled these campaigns and the lobby conducting them. However, despite all their efforts, Erdoğan and the AK Party are still in power. Even if Germany accepts the Turkish government as a reality and tries to form rational relations based on security and economy with Turkey, they will have a hard time facing the anti-Turkish lobby and notions that it allowed to exist.

The said anti-Turkish lobby will want to use anti-Turkish sentiment to its last drop and will force German government to do so. For this reason, the future of Turkish-German relations in the midterm and long-term depends on what kind of a coalition government will be formed in Germany, their desire to normalize and have rational relations and their success in doing so.

Turkey also should thoroughly analyze these dynamics in Germany and should relieve the tensions if a German government desires to reestablish rational relations.