World Bank lowers Turkey's growth forecast

Falling oil prices and rising domestic demand have contributed to growth, while depreciation of the currency has held it back. The World Bank expects Turkey's growth rate to be 3 percent and inflation to be 7 percent in 2015



The World Bank published Turkey's Economic Information Note for April, downgrading the growth forecast of the country for 2015 from 3.5 percent to 3 percent.Stating that stagnation in demand caused growth to remain at 2.9 percent in 2014, the note pointed out that unexpected stock formation, weak indicators and current economic weakness might prevail over the first half of 2015.According to the note, the fall in energy prices and weak domestic demand contributed to reducing the current account deficit, however, their impact on inflation remains lower than expected due to the continuation of the depreciation of the Turkish lira.It is expected that the rate of decline in inflation will considerably slow down, while year-end inflation is expected to be 7 percent. Although weak industrial activity reduces the rate of employment creation, the current account deficit continues to decline thanks to the increase in gold trade and falling energy prices.The note also suggests that uncertainty about the forthcoming general elections continues to adversely affect investor behavior, underlining that it is of critical importance to practice structural reforms rapidly to re-establish confidence. Concerning economic support given to Turkey, the note said that the World Bank supported projects that would run Turkey's competitive power, including a development policy loan to support key reforms in capital and labor markets in MY15, and additional financing given to the Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAŞ) for the completion of the Tuz Gölü Gas Storage Facility. The bank also contributed to Turkey's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with innovative financial instruments such as Islamic financing and factoring.The work undertaken by the World Bank in Turkey is based on a common Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) covering the period between 2012 and 2016. The CPS aims to support Turkey's transition to higher income through $6.45 billion worth of financing expected for the five-year period, as well as providing policy analyses and consultancy services. Increasing the competitive power and employment, improving equality and public services and consolidating sustainable development are among the CPS's key objectives. The World Banks' cooperation with Turkey is expanding in a way that will cover the sharing of information and experiences with a broader international mass.