German unemployment falls to record low, growth forecasts raised
A man enters a German labour office (Agentur fuer Arbeit) building in Hanover, Germany, Jan. 07, 2014. (EPA Photo)


Germany's top economic researchers raised their growth forecast on Thursday as labor office figures in Europe's largest economy showed seasonally adjusted unemployment holding at a record low of 6.1 per cent in September and job vacancies hitting an all-time high.

The Federal Labor Agency said Thursday that the number of jobless fell 76,682 in September from August, with a total of 2.61 million people out of work.

When adjusted for seasonal factors, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.1 percent.

IHS economist Timo Klein says employment has been helped by migration from troubled eurozone countries and Eastern Europe. The influx of asylum seekers in 2015, primarily from the Mideast "will strengthen this tendency during 2016-17 as more and more ... obtain right of residence."

He says increased immigration has changed Germany's long-term outlook and now "the working-age population and also labor supply will not decline any time soon."

"The job market is still in good shape and continues to support private spending while public spending has been boosted by refugee-related expenditure," said Ferdinand Fichtner from the Berlin-based German Institute for Economic Research (DIW). "This means that domestic activity overall is very strong," he said.

Fichtner was speaking at a press conference where the DIW joined four other German economic research institutes in announcing they had raised their 2016 growth forecast for the nation to 1.9 per cent.

This compares to the 1.6 per cent they had projected in their last report in April.

Economic growth should then slow next year to 1.4 per cent, they said, slightly decreasing their earlier prediction of a 1.5-per-cent expansion rate.

The growth rate should edge higher again in 2018, to expand by 1.6 per cent, according to the group of institutes, which also includes the Ifo institute in Munich, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Halle's IWH and the Essen-based RWI.

Employment in Germany is set to continue to grow, the institutes said, predicting that nearly half a million new jobs will be created next year thanks to a pickup in investment and exports.

"The demand for new employees continues to be high," said Labour Agency chief Frank-Juergen Weise.

The number of job vacancies climbed to an all-time high of 686,797 in September from 685,238 in August, the labor agency said.

At the same time, jobless numbers actually fell 77,000 to 2.608 million in unadjusted terms, the agency said as school leavers found work.

Correspondingly, the unadjusted unemployment rate declined from 6.1 per cent in August to 5.9 per cent in September.

The solid state of the labor market is also helping to produce a healthy set of German state finances.

Despite the high costs of providing shelter for about one million refugees, the institutes said they expect Germany to produce a budget surplus of 20.1 billion euros (about 22.6 billion dollars) this year and 13.7 billion in 2017. The institutes see the surplus at 16 billion euros in 2018.

However, the institutes also warned of the economic risks for Germany, saying Britain's decision in June to exit the European Union could impact German business.

"In various parts of the world, political and social movements are seeking to unravel the integration of the global economy," Fichtner said.