Foreign experts see limited impact of Afrin offensive on markets


International market experts claim the impact of Turkey's Operation Olive Branch in northwestern Syria's Afrin to eliminate the threats of the PKK terrorist organization's Syrian affiliate the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed branch, the People's Protection Units (YPG), on markets will be very limited and emphasized that Turkey continues to benefit from the rise in the emerging markets. Timothy Ash, senior EM sovereign strategist at the London-based Bluebay Asset Management, said the Afrin offensive has not largely impacted the markets so far, but the effect has remained contained. Ash pointed out that the operation came at a time when the global markets are solvent, which has led to a sound result against potential risks. "In order to secure more profit, investors welcome the idea of ignoring the geopolitical and country-based risks," he said and underscored that the country's economic outlook will remain untainted by the operation. Ash also noted that Turkish assets deliver a performance that does not fully deliver the expectations, particularly compared to the South African and Russian assets.

Economist İpek Özkardeşkaya highlighted that even though the Turkish Lira started the week on a downward curve in Asian markets, markets have reversed, compensating for the early losses. "In the eyes of the markets, the partial shutdown of the U.S. government due to a budget crisis, the flow of global capital into emerging market currencies and the rise in commodity prices seem to have balanced out the geopolitical tension in the Turkey-Syrian border," she remarked.

Noting the fact that the U.S. dollar fell below 3.80 against the Turkish lira despite tensions, Özkardeşkaya said the lira has not fallen behind the rally in emerging markets. Capital Economics Senior Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson also noted the current situation might be a reflection of last week's sales on Turkish assets, pointing out his surprise in the limited impact of the operation on domestic markets.

The rise in Turkish lira-denominated assets continued yesterday as well. Borsa Istanbul's benchmark index BIST 100 rose 0.52 percent, or 608.10 points, to 117,843.57 points and then hit 118,549 around 4 p.m., seeing an all time record.

The U.S. dollar fell to 3.77 Turkish liras at 9:30 a.m. local time, although it later hit 3.80, only to retreat back to 3.77 at 4.09 p.m. The euro-lira rate also dropped to 4.63 from the previous day's close of 4.65.