The ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan display obvious confidence in anticipation of the coming early elections on June 24 while confusion reigns among the opposition. Months-long discussions between the AK Party and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) have created a strong election alliance, with the government's string of election victories in the past one-and-a-half decades behind this confidence. The presidential candidate, Erdoğan, remains the biggest draw for the government, and the well-oiled campaign mechanism of the ruling party is ready to pick up speed.

"Erdoğan is a political actor that is well connected with the voters and is able to project their choices. This is what has given him leverage and confidence against his rivals," İbrahim Uslu, the president of ANAR Research Company, says. Erdoğan announced the June 24 snap parliamentary and presidential elections last week, following the call by MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli to hold elections ahead of schedule, initially planned for November 2019. The opposition had interpreted the move as a problem for the government, indicating that the government's popularity was in decline. Uslu says, however, that Erdoğan is a "rational politician" that respects intraparty mechanisms in decision-making processes, rather than reaching conclusions right away.

"In fact, there is an upward surge in support for Erdoğan and the government. The decision to hold elections is made to maintain and maximize their advantage," Uslu said.

The AK Party has won every election since its formation in 2001. The party so far has participated in five general elections, in 2002, 2007, 2011, June 2015 and the November 2015 snap elections, winning 34.3 percent, 46.6 percent, 49.8 percent, 40.9 percent and 49.5 percent of the vote, respectively, and coming in first in three municipal elections in 2004, 2009 and 2014, with 41.7 percent, 38.4 percent and 42.9 percent, respectively.

In 2014, Erdoğan had resigned from party membership as he geared up for the presidential elections, which he came out as the winner with about 52 percent of the votes from the people. However, after constitutional changes were approved in the April 16 referendum last year, the president re-applied for membership to the AK Party, and he was re-elected as party chairman on May 21 last year.

Adil Gür, the head of the A&G Research Center, says Erdoğan capitalizes on several factors, which give him a solid confidence in the race in the run up to the presidential elections. Gür says polls conducted by AK Party months in advance, the close electoral base of AK Party-MHP, and also the lack of unity among opposition is what makes Erdoğan believe that he will win the presidential elections.

"First of all, Erdoğan and the AK Party were aware of the survey results for a while now, and consider them to be to their advantage. Otherwise, they would not just say 'yes' to snap elections," Gür said.

He also added that the AK Party and MHP are not ideologically distant parties, when compared with the opposition bloc, which consists of the secularist Republican People's Party (CHP), the far-right Good Party (İP) and the conservative Islamist Felicity Party (SP).

ALLIANCE OF SECULARISTS, ISLAMISTS AND FAR-RIGHT

Meanwhile, THE confusion among the opposition becomes clearer every passing day. The CHP Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remains adamant about not putting himself forward as a presidential candidate while blocking other party members from doing so. The secret negotiations with the far-right İP culminated in the CHP just handing over 15 deputies over the weekend to allow the İP to create a 20-strong parliamentary group. It allowed İP Chairwoman Meral Akşener the opportunity to run for president.

Gür said the electorate saw the İP entering the elections with the CHP's help. "Those AK party voters that may consider switching their support to the İP would refuse to do so after seeing what happened."

"Currently there is a weird scenario," Erdoğan said yesterday during AK Party's weekly group meeting at the Parliament, referring to the transfer of deputies from CHP to İP. He also mentioned the evident unwillingness of the former CHP deputies for not switching to the seats at the aisle allocated to the İP. "Why were the 15 deputies not sitting in the seats of İP?" he asked.

News reports have also been giving the impression that a third opposition party, conservative Islamist SP, is playing a key role in creating an anti-Erdoğan opposition alliance among ideologically disparate political movements.

Reports also point to former president, Abdullah Gül, as a possible candidate for the joint opposition alliance. Gül served as a prime minister and foreign minister from the AK Party before being put forward by Erdoğan, who referred to him as "my brother Gül," as a presidential candidate. Despite considerable CHP opposition, Gül became the president in 2007. He had to resign as a party member after assuming the post, which had to be seen as being above politics. Since being replaced by Erdoğan in 2014, Gül hasn't rejoined the AK Party.

Rumors in Ankara claim that the SP is in negotiations with the CHP and the İP to persuade them to accept Gül as a joint candidate of an opposition alliance.

Erdoğan responded to a question by reporters on Gül's candidacy, saying, "I'm not concerned about it."

Meanwhile, leftist groups within the CHP are opposed to their party supporting anyone outside their movement.

CHP İzmir Deputy Selin Sayek Böke voiced opposition to rumors about Gül's joint candidacy in a tweet on Monday. "We had shared our opinion months ago, let's repeat it. Gül, who had played a leading role in destruction of democracy, will not be the candidate of our party," she wrote.

Despite lagging behind AK Party/MHP, in such a complicated and confusing environment, opposition parties naturally find it hard to proceed to launch their campaigns.

A&R Research Center head Gür said the parties in the opposition bloc, despite having a common stance of being anti-Erdoğan, "are ideologically distant from each other," which makes it difficult for them to act strategically. "Even if they agree to act together, making compromises while appealing to their electoral bases will be very difficult," he said.