Merkel ally sees 'tail wind' from German state election


A senior member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's party says the conservatives' unexpected strong win in the Saarland vote has given them a "tail wind" for the bigger upcoming elections.

Merkel's Christian Democrats easily beat the center-left Social Democrats in the State of Saarland on Sunday. A tighter race was expected after the Social Democrats were boosted in the polls by nominating Martin Schulz to challenge Merkel in September's national election.

Armin Laschet, a Christian Democrat deputy leader, told ZDF television Monday, "Everything that was said about the Schulz train rolling over everything and changing everything didn't come true."

The Saarland governor's popularity apparently made the difference on Sunday. Laschet faces a tough task to oust a center-left regional government in May in North Rhine-Westphalia. He said, "We have tail wind, but we haven't won anything yet."

The Christian conservatives' victory in Saarland is also to be attributed to the Christian Democratic Union of Germany's (CDU) local Minister-President since 2011, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who is popular with the local populace and, despite Chancellor Merkel's difficulties with popularity in some other states, has been dubbed "mini-Merkel."

Talking numbers under Kramp-Karrenbauer's leadership, the CDU won 40.7 percent of the vote in the 2017 state elections, up from 35.2 percent in 2012, which, considering how well the resurgent Social Democratic Party has been doing under Martin Schulz, is very good news for Merkel and the CDU, even though Saarland traditionally votes conservative.

With a population of just over 1 million, Saarland is Germany's least populated state, however it has been seen as concrete summery for things to come in the rest of Germany's 16 Federal States.

Under the leadership of the former President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, who was unanimously accepted by the socialists to lead their party, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) has been seemingly surging in the polls neck-to-neck with Merkel's CDU, who's been leading the country since 2005.

While the mainstream parties such as the CDU and the SPD together hold some 60 to 66 percent of the country's voting bloc, they have been wary of the country's new Eurosceptic party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD).

While the AfD, led by Frauke Petry, does not threaten either of the big parties, it has consistently come in third, leaving behind the left, the greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). The AfD, operating on a Eurosceptic, anti-mass immigration and anti-globalist platform, has gathered some 11 to 15 percent in recent polls. As a party, it can be compared to Marine Le Pen's Front National which has a good chance of winning the French presidential election in the country's run-off election to be held in this May.

As shown with Brexit and the victory of U.S. President Donald Trump, last year polls often generated results were horribly inaccurate. For example, the SPD was expected to make gains in Saarland, however it ended up losing popularity even though the polls suggested otherwise, which is why Merkel's CDU is pleased with the party's "stress test" and performance.