Turkey-DAESH oil claims: A mathematical explanation

To hide the long-time oil trade going on in the region between DAESH and the Russian-backed Assad regime, Russia strategically tries to portray Turkey as the one buying oil from the terror organization instead



It's that time of the year again: Blame Turkey for buying oil from DAESH. Every single time political tension occurs between Turkey and someone else, this argument is brought forward, as if it is robust and logical. The very same assertions were utilized by local rivals of the Turkish government before, but with a little difference: The amount of the alleged oil trade in question was small at that time. Every time someone talks about the same issue, the amount snowballs. Allegations started as low as $1 million oil in transactions per day between DAESH and Turkey and rocketed up to $100 million per month.Russian media outlets started the latest smear campaign after Turkey downed a Russian warplane that violated its airspace. This act of Turkey was lawful and legitimate according to international law. However, the Russian side did not approach this problem in a mature way and started to attack Turkey with every available black propaganda tool, including mobilizing local media outlets in Turkey to spread the false allegations.The funniest item in this propaganda war was published by RT, a Russian government-funded television and news network. According to this shocking news, the son of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is seen with bearded DAESH leaders in a photo. It doesn't stop here, adding that those DAESH leaders participated in massacres in Syria's Homs and Rojava. RT might be thinking that this is successful journalism, but in reality it is only a miserable attempt at revenge. The truth is that these bearded guys are the owners of a well-known kebab shop (Ciğeristan) in the Aksaray district of Istanbul. The only massacre they participated in is probably the massacre of tomatoes. They literally cut hundreds of kilograms of tomatoes every day for kebabs. This story was told to show how absurd the Russian media can be when it comes to propaganda. All of the news regarding Turkey that originates from Russian sources must be reviewed with caution nowadays.One of the latest ridiculous news items that appeared in the Russian media (Sputnik) reads, "DAESH has made $800 million in eight months from selling oil in Turkey." According to this article from Sputnik, an Iraqi politician named Mowaffak al-Rubaie claims that DAESH sells its oil in the Turkish black market for $20 per barrel, while the regular price of oil is around $50, making $800 million in the last eight months. The only truth in this sentence is that the international oil price is around $50 (Brent crude oil price is $45 actually). The rest is nonsense. Here is where simple math takes the stage, and we check to see whether these allegations are true.We have two basic claims: DAESH has made $100 million per month by selling oil to Turkey, and it sells a barrel for $20. This means that DAESH has sold 5 million barrels of oil to Turkey; one oil barrel holds 159 liters of oil, and if we multiply this figure by 5 million, the result is 795 million liters. That's a huge amount of oil. To our knowledge, there are only four possible methods to transport oil: By rail carriers, oil tankers, oil trucks or pipelines. If DAESH has not built its own pipeline to Turkey without the knowledge of any Turkish authority or anyone living in the area, the only possible way to bring its oil to Turkey is using oil trucks. An average oil truck has a capacity of 35,000 liters, which means that to move 795 million liters of oil from Syria to Turkey, DAESH needs nearly 23,000 truck trips per month - 766 per day. If the claim is true, then DAESH must have at least 766 oil trucks, and they should pass through the Turkish border back and forth every day, and this must have been happening for the last eight months.When we speak of figures only, it is easier to believe those allegations, but once we try to put the figures into practice, the absurdity becomes crystal clear. It is physically impossible for DAESH to sell its oil to Turkey by sending 766 oil trucks every day without anyone noticing such traffic at the borders. Not to mention the fact that all foreign media outlets have their own reporters on the ground near the Syrian-Turkish border to cover the latest developments in Syria. Long story short, it is nonsense to claim that Turkey buys $100 million worth of oil every month from DAESH.This is definitely apparent to the knowledgeable.Then, why do they constantly keep publishing this type of news? There are various possible answers to this question, but the most important and relevant one is seen as an effort to conceal the oil trade between DAESH and Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime in Syria. On the 25th of this month, the United States sanctioned a Syrian businessman (George Haswani), who was also sanctioned by the EU earlier this year for the same reason. He was serving as a middleman in the oil trade between DAESH and the Assad government. Also, two other middlemen, Mudalal Khuri and Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, were also sanctioned for helping the Syrian regime on behalf of Russia. As we can also see from these latest developments, it is well known to everyone that the biggest oil trade partner of DAESH is the Assad government itself. The groundless allegations by Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as some of the Russian media toward Turkey essentially mean that they are trying to cover up this cold fact.Consequently, it is proven both mathematically and logically that it is impossible for Turkey to buy that amount of oil from DAESH. Even if Turkey wanted to, it could not, because there is a bigger, stable buyer of DAESH oil with lower transportation costs and without customs problems, which is the Russian-backed Assad government.