Turkey's foreign policy in a changing world

Turkey will continue to seek EU membership and remain in NATO for the foreseeable future. In the meantime, Turkish foreign policy will become more active in its surrounding region, where fighting terrorism and ensuring its border's security are top priorities



Change and continuity are two important concepts in foreign policy analysis. We live in a world that continuously changes. Some changes are slow and gradual, while others are quick. At one given time, rapid changes can occur along with relative stability and continuity. Often, events that lead to sudden changes are unpredictable, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Arab Spring, and the recent coup attempt in Turkey. Sovereign states as well as institutions adapt to these changes.Globalization is an ongoing process that connects the world and affects everyone, positively or negatively. Due to political globalization, domestic issues become international issues. Due to economic globalization, countries must coordinate their economic policies for the health of each country's economy. G20 meetings have brought together finance ministers and central bank governors of the top 20 largest economies since 1999, as well as heads of state since 2008, in the form of summits. The 10th summit was held in Antalya, Turkey last year, and the 11th was recently held in Hangzhou, China. Unfortunately, there are less developed countries that could not engage in the global economy in a way that benefits them.TURKISH-RUSSIAN RELATION UP AND DOWNTurkey is an OECD country and a G20 member. Its economy experienced mostly positive growth during the last 15 years, except for 2009, due to the "great recession" in the U.S. and eurozone. Its economy has been the fastest growing among OECD countries in many of these years. The U.K.'s PwC forecasts Turkey's economy to be the 14th largest by 2030. Currently, it is the 17th largest. Turkey's economy has proven to be resistant to crises, such as the crisis between Turkey and Russia last year due to the Turkish military's downing of a Russian warplane at Turkey's Syrian border and the domestic political crisis that recently occurred due to the failed coup on July 15. Turkey's economy grew 3.1 percent during the second quarter of 2016, despite the coup attempt.Turkey, with its strategic location, economic size, and military (the second largest in NATO) is an important regional power. It cannot be ignored in regional developments, nor can it stay idle regarding the developments that potentially threaten Turkey's security. Turkey and Russia recently understood how important their economic ties were for the health of their future relations and therefore reconciled after the dispute that arose from the downing of a Russian warplane. Since the end of the Cold War, normalization of Turkey-Russia relations and increasing economic ties continue, despite disagreements on Russia's annexation of Crimea and Russia's support for Syrian President Bashar Assad.Turkey is dependent on Russia's natural gas and Russia is an important market for Turkey's exports as well as for Turkish construction companies. Also, millions of Russian tourists visit Turkey every year.From the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) rise to power in 2002 to the Arab Spring, Turkey followed a foreign policy based on "strategic debt" and a "zero problems with neighbors" vision. Thus, Turkey improved its relations not only with Russia, but with almost all of its neighbors, including Assad's Syria, during this period. It prioritized the "soft powers" of diplomacy and economic relations in its foreign policy. The Arab Spring destabilized many authoritarian regimes of the Middle East, including that of Syria. Even though Turkey encouraged Assad to make democratic reforms, he rejected such reforms, and the country fell into chaos. Turkey took the side of the Syrian people demanding their democratic rights and supported democratic opposition groups. However, the Syrian chaos created a perfect environment for terrorist groups' recruitment and operations, which could have been prevented with early international intervention. Having resolved its crisis with Russia, Turkey now wants to ensure the security of its Syrian borders from the threats of such terrorist groups, especially DAESH. Turkey, as a member of coalition forces against DAESH, entered Syria in support of the Free Syrian Army, in order to ensure that its border region is controlled by friendly forces. Recapturing the territories from DAESH also enabled some Syrian refugees to return to their homes, particularly in Jarablus. Nonetheless, Turkey's direct military involvement, and its use of "hard power" in Syria is a new foreign policy output toward the Syrian conflict.EU'S VISA-FREE BLUFF OVER REFUGEE DEALWhile Syrian chaos is continuing and the country's future is still uncertain, Turkey is hosting 3 million Syrian refugees and coping with illegal immigrants going from Turkey to Europe. In March 2015, Turkey and the European Union agreed on a refugee deal according to which Turkey would readmit illegal refugees going to EU countries through Turkey, and the EU would give 6 billion euros for refugees in Turkey and visa-free EU travel to Turkish citizens. Although this deal decreased the flow of refugees from Turkey to Europe, the EU has not fulfilled its promise of the visa-free travel. This issue, along with the Turkish government's emergency laws after the failed coup, is causing rhetorical conflict between EU and Turkish leaders. In the past, Turkey adopted EU membership as one of its strategic goals, and Turkey-EU accession talks have been going on since 2005. Even though Turkey-EU relations started in the early 1960s, long before the EU's relations with its newly admitted members in the 2000s, leaders of several EU countries have not showed support for Turkey's membership. After a long wait, the Turkish public's support for EU membership has declined. Nevertheless, Turkish foreign policy has not changed its membership goal. For now, the EU has been occupied with its own problems, ranging from the Eurozone crisis, to refugees, to Brexit.Turkey will continue to seek EU membership and remain in NATO for the foreseeable future. In the meantime, Turkish foreign policy will become more active in its surrounding region with fighting terrorism and ensuring its border's security as top priorities.* Assistant professor, Business Department Chair at the American University of Iraq Sulaimani