The "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022" report published by the United Nations on Jan. 13 starts with the finding that the human, economic and social cost of the COVID-19 pandemic is devastating. The global pandemic has forced the world to confront an umbrella of problems such as increasing poverty, job losses, fragmented safety networks and health systems on the verge of collapse and has overshadowed the effects of climate change. On the U.N. agenda since the 1970s and later gaining momentum in the 1990s, the Sustainable Development Goals were defined under 17 main headings in the 2000s but have become almost inaccessible today.
The U.N. has reiterated that an uncertain, unequal and unjust recovery where gender inequality and the intensification of inequalities between countries at different income levels is a strong possibility. Although ambitious vaccination campaigns, bold support and incentive packages were offered to all stakeholders in the economies of the G-20 and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries, unfortunately, the opportunities for recovery have not been shared equally between continents, geographies and countries. United Nations Secretary-General Guterres emphasizes that it is now time to close the inequality gaps within and between countries; and that if we work in solidarity as a family, we can make 2022 a real year of recovery for everyone.
Guterres' call is for the U.N. system to work together with every country to overcome the global pandemic and move forward to build a flexible, inclusive, equitable and sustainable world economy that all humanity deserves and needs. However, the report also warns that the pressures of rising inflation in both advanced and emerging economies pose additional risks that will hinder economic recovery. Global core inflation rose to 5.2% in 2021, more than 2 percentage points above the last 10-year average. According to the report prepared by the experts of the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), the global economy is expected to grow by 4% in 2022, which naturally will remain below the 5.5% global growth rate for 2021.
The report predicts that the 2023 global growth rate will be below the 2021 and 2022 growth rates at 3.5% due to the waves of the global pandemic, ongoing difficulties in the job market, pressures in the supply chain and increasing inflation. It pointed out that after a 3.4% contraction in 2020, the high growth in 2021 lost its momentum toward the end of the year. The U.N. report states that the slowdown observed at the end of 2021 also includes large economies such as China, the European Union and the United States and that the expiration of the pandemic aid packages and disruptions in the supply chain both play an important role in this slowdown. For this reason, governments that make a difference thanks to their economic policy measures and that can keep their country away from this troublesome trend will be successful.
‘A deficit of 52 million jobs in 2022’
The "World Employment and Social Outlook – 2022 Trends" report, which is defined as the flagship report by the International Labor Organization (ILO), published on Jan. 17, indicates an employment gap that could reach 52 million full-time jobs will continue in 2022. Global unemployment, which was already at 186 million as of the end of 2019 before the global pandemic, increased to 207 million in 2022. It can only go back to its 2019 levels after the world economy, global trade and global supply chain recover and the participation in the labor market improves. However, considering the job losses and unemployment expectations of 2022, let's not ignore that the overall employment participation rate will still be 1.2 percentage points lower than that of 2019. The negative factors affecting women and youth employment require more comprehensive policies during the improvement process. Therefore, both the G-20 and OECD countries have to take the ILO's call for an inclusive and people-centered recovery seriously.