When the Cold War ended, while Asia had a population of 3.2 billion, the population of Africa was 634 million, and the total population of the Atlantic Alliance, formed by Europe and North America, was at the level of 1 billion. Thus, the share of the Atlantic Alliance countries in the world population was almost 20%. In 2020, the same ratio fell to 14%.
In 2050, it is expected to fall to 11.6%. Whether demographic or economic, the global economic-political tensions brought by the ongoing "center of gravity" shift between the Atlantic and Asia-Pacific from 2020 to 2050 will continue to cause chaos and uncertainty.
The COVID-19 pandemic deepened the confusion and uncertainty that marked the first 20 years of the 21st century with its socioeconomic effects. It brought new challenges, new expansions and new support in terms of the employment of more than 3 billion people and struggles for hundreds of millions of companies worldwide. It made cost management much more important for national economies.
It also sparked the debate on global supply and demand security and the enrichment and diversification of global supply chains. It took global and regional competition between countries to the next level.
The rules of competition have become harder. All these elements, without a doubt, have forced countries to fight to open a new chapter for this period, which we will have to call the age of chaos and uncertainty.
Turkey, as Eurasia's playmaker country, is heading toward a new peak and a new success story. It is carrying out a transformation that will change the fate of the geographic sphere under its influence. If today’s Turkey could have carried out humanitarian operations in Syria and Libya, its success with its hard and soft powers in the 1990s, we would not have experienced a genocide like Srebrenica in the middle of Europe.
Therefore, for the stability of the Balkans, establishing economic and cultural cooperation between Turkey and Balkan countries will be very important for Turkey, who is writing a new chapter. Not only for Bosnia-Herzegovina but also for the development of Serbia and Croatia, the projects that will be carried out by Turkish companies in this region are of critical importance.
In a world where carbon-based energy derivatives, which are the No. 1 triggers of global climate change, lead to heated debates, Turkey is writing a new story based on green energy through renewable energy and with an effective vision. With its moves in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey is getting involved in changing balances in the energy game and energy strategies as a playmaker country.
It is time to turn a page in Turkey-Britain relations with Brexit and in EU-Turkey relations with the revision of the customs union. Turkey will be the shining star in the age of chaos and uncertainty as a rare country that can write a new story for itself and the region based on inclusive development.
U.S.-China struggle
The U.S.-China relationship, which has taken on a trend of "having your cake and eating it too," is impossible to predict.
The U.S., on one hand, is restricting China's influence with the support of Britain and France in the global competition for the communication industry and mobile technologies; on the other hand, it is delaying the sanctions on the Hong Kong Security Law, which is another topic that escalated tension between the two countries.
The sanctions against Chinese officials, in particular, were perceived as unlikely, despite U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism of China's human rights record and technology espionage, as well as him referring to the coronavirus as the "Chinese virus."
Having said that, in economic-political circles, the issue is interpreted as the U.S. eating the whole cake and then wanting another slice.
China's newly announced macro data shows that, despite the serious virus threat, the Chinese economy has the ability to recover quickly due to its strong infrastructure.
Therefore, it is obvious that the U.S. economy, which has been severely damaged by the pandemic, will want to export $200 billion to China by 2022 as part of the framework of the Phase 1 trade agreement, which it has finally agreed on with China.
For this reason, the U.S. administration, which seems to not want to increase the tension with Beijing and prefers to continue the negotiation process, will not apply the sanctions it had previously threatened for Chinese senior officials.
The new law passed through the U.S. Congress authorizes the administration to impose sanctions on officials, including Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam and Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Han Zheng, who allegedly damaged Hong Kong's autonomy. Meanwhile, a recent development in the topic mentioned last week was Britain's decision to join the digital embargo on China in favor of the U.S.
At the end of January, despite all the pressure from the U.S., the U.K., which approved Chinese companies to be included in its 5G technology infrastructure to a limited extent, six months later banned the use of Huawei equipment in the infrastructure after a decision last Tuesday.
According to this, British telecom companies will no longer be able to purchase products from this company after the end of the year and by 2027, they will be removing all products of the company from the system.
The Chinese government, on the other hand, is very angry with the U.K.'s decision. It seems that in the race for 5G and later 6G technology, the U.S. is determined to prevent China from coming to the fore.
Germany's approach, which resists U.S. pressure, will be decisive here. Trump has given a signal with the decision to withdraw 9,500 of the 34,500 soldiers at the American bases in Germany. In the end, we will see if this whole process will end up with "eating" or "having" the cake.