In Sunday's municipal elections across Türkiye, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and its chairperson, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, tasted its first major election defeat since 2001, when the party was established, against the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).

Ahead of the elections, pundits and polls had speculated that the AK Party would struggle to win back the biggest three provinces. Türkiye's cultural and commercial capital, Istanbul, as well as the official capital, Ankara, were lost to the CHP in the 2019 municipal elections after more than two decades of AK Party rule in the metropolitan cities. In Izmir, a traditional CHP stronghold, a win was not quite expected, yet the AK Party was seen to be increasing its voter base with a successful campaign relative to previous elections.

In other Anatolian cities, including some AK Party strongholds, however, while some shuffling was expected, not many expected a significant change, let alone the CHP coming out as the first party in overall results.

Voter signal amid economic struggles

Of course, there is a list of reasons for the harsh defeat, which is termed as a strong signal by the voters to the AK Party. Indeed, the voters have chosen the party as the winner in all elections for over two decades, including last year's parliamentary and presidential elections. Moreover, it is important to underline that the main opposition, the CHP, or the opposition bloc in general, has not come close to winning in the past two decades. However, a new factor has been affecting the citizens, including the AK Party supporters. That is the economic difficulty despite the macroeconomic program having seen positive changes in the recovery period. The high cost of living felt by the middle/low-income workforce as well as the senior citizens, particularly due to very high rent increases in the housing sector and high inflation in food prices, coupled with the depreciating Turkish lira, has directly affected the average citizen on the street.

The economic situation, however, is not the sole factor to blame, nor does it explain the party's defeat. Here, it is important to note that the economy was in relatively worse shape at the time of last year's elections. Yet, Erdoğan still came as the victor of the presidential election, defeating the rival opposition Nation Alliance bloc, led by then-CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

So, what other factors, aside from the economic conditions, led to a change in voters' tendencies toward the AK Party?

The answer is in Erdoğan's remarks, where he evaluated the elections during his party's Central Executive Board (MYK) meeting two days after the elections.

According to party sources, Erdoğan first acknowledges that the current economic situation has been a heavy burden on the citizens, that many segments of society suffered a loss of welfare and that efforts to alleviate the distress of retirees did not reach the desired point.

Yet, he reportedly moved on beyond the economy and strongly suggested a self-criticism of the party, saying that everyone, including himself, is responsible and nobody can be excluded from self-criticism for the defeat.

Citizen complaints about party management, bureaucracy

According to Erdoğan's remarks shared by the party sources, another important factor is citizens' complaints regarding the negative attitudes that have emerged in the different levels of the party's management and bureaucracy.

As a party proud of establishing strong ties with all segments of society and being able to touch their hearts and souls, this criticism is perhaps one of the most important factors for the low turnout in the elections, many of whom are said to be AK Party voters. While the CHP did not significantly raise its voters, the AK Party has lost more than 8 million votes in these elections. There is strong criticism that the AK Party elites have built walls between them and their voters, alleviating the accountability.

According to party sources, Erdoğan thinks that in addition to the loss of votes, there is a "loss of blood and soul" in the party's character, and the party itself should be blamed, not the voters. According to the president, the AK Party has to recognize its mistakes, pull itself together and strengthen its bridges with the nation again if it does not want to fade away and disappear in Turkish politics.

President Erdoğan has embraced the election results calmly, respecting the nation's democratic will reflected at the ballot boxes. This was also at the very heart of his post-election "balcony speech" on Sunday night in his party's headquarters in Ankara, where he met with a crowd of supporters.

The AK Party has traditionally been a party that can read the messages from the public very well and rejuvenate itself under Erdoğan's strong leadership. Indeed, as a master of politics, Erdoğan is again expected to make significant changes in his party management to stop "the loss of blood and soul." This time around, however, the changes may be harsher and more comprehensive than previous ones. This will not be soul-searching. Rather, this will be a reset or rolling back to the party's factory settings and reinstalling the AK Party vision at all levels. Erdoğan's popularity and support from the voters surpass his party's by a large margin. Suppose the AK Party can undergo the changes and receive the messages given by the voters. In that case, that margin can be minimized and the AK Party's popularity can come close to its leader, President Erdoğan.

On another note, Sunday's elections again showed the strong democratic tradition of holding free and fair elections across the country, refuting the international media or political actors' baseless claims about Türkiye's democracy in the previous elections. On the other hand, maybe Western media only hails Türkiye's democracy and accepts election results when the opposition wins and Erdoğan loses.