The regulation regarding Sweden's NATO membership bid underwent a crucial vote in the Turkish Parliament on Tuesday. Among the 346 members of Parliament participating in the 600-seat assembly, 287 voted in favor, 55 against and four abstained. The fact that both ruling and opposition parties supported the measure underscores its significance as a "state matter."

In the lead-up to the vote in the Turkish Parliament, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban foreshadowed the unfolding developments with a tweet, signaling Budapest's yet-to-be-confirmed approval of Sweden's membership bid.

"Today I sent an invitation letter to Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson for a visit to Hungary to negotiate on Sweden's NATO accession," Orban said, thereby signaling a potential avenue for discussions.

It is known that Türkiye has requested F-16 aircraft from the United States in exchange for approving Sweden's membership, and this is likely to expedite the process. If Hungary manages to fulfill its demands and successfully passes a similar decision through its Parliament, Sweden will become a member of the Pact.

As for how Russian President Vladimir Putin perceives these developments...

Considering the relationships of the key players with Russia, it can be asserted that no actions have been taken contrary to Putin's wishes. Both Türkiye and Hungary are adept at maintaining a delicate balance in their relations with Russia, skillfully navigating between the polarized West and Russia. Both Ankara and Budapest abstain from endorsing Western sanctions against Russia. Putin and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, collaborators in various fields, including a nuclear power plant, uphold robust relations, with even expectations of Putin visiting Türkiye in the coming days.

The significance of Sweden's NATO membership appears less important to Putin than its relations with Türkiye and Hungary.

Sweden's position

While NATO's expansion is undeniably against Putin's interests, Sweden, entirely surrounded by NATO countries with no direct border with Russia, had previously made it clear that joining the alliance wouldn't allow for the deployment of nuclear missiles and foreign military bases on its soil. Meanwhile, Putin acknowledged that Moscow has no issues with the decisions taken by the governments in Helsinki and Stockholm, emphasizing that these choices alone do not pose a threat to Russia. However, he cautioned that any expansion of military bases in the region would undoubtedly prompt reciprocal responses, the magnitude of which would be determined by the nature of the threat. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also asserted that the inclusion of two new countries in NATO wouldn't fundamentally change the regional dynamics, given the alliance's ongoing military expansion eastward and its operations in the territories of Finland and Sweden.

So, how will Sweden's accession to NATO affect the existing balance and what consequences will it entail for the involved parties?

Despite having no security concerns, Sweden will voluntarily embrace unnecessary challenges as it aligns itself under the NATO umbrella, requiring concessions in its national policies.

The Joe Biden administration, having faced setbacks in the ongoing war in Ukraine, will leverage this development as a preelection success narrative.

On the contrary, the Russian president will seize a more robust position to argue that NATO is provocatively expanding. This could prompt Putin to take additional measures against NATO, particularly in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine being the starting point.