A country’s claim in the world’s economy-politics is directly linked to its ability to run a successful, fully independent, national economy and making it sustainable.
All of the countries that have a powerful position in the economy, diplomacy, technology, production and global trade have never neglected two specific areas that are the basis of their success.
The first of these is self-sufficiency in the fulfillment of its energy needs while the second is self-reliance in the field of defense and national security.
While the world’s leading developed countries, which are referred to as the Group of Seven (G-7), took decisive steps in this area, this never-ending struggle continues among the Group of 20 (G-20) countries.
In Turkey – a member of G-20 – there have been some revolutionary transformations due to its ability to mobilize its resources and capabilities, its strong steps in national energy and defense systems and its capacity to produce high-end technology in energy and defense sectors as well.
Such a revolutionary change in the two key areas has encouraged the private sector and increased mobility toward a completely independent national economy in the country.
The world's reputable countries, especially the NATO members, are following Turkey’s success in armed and unarmed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), missile systems, the MILGEM project – an initiative to locally design and build a fleet of multipurpose corvettes and frigates – and its results in the fight against terrorism in Syria, Libya and Iraq with appreciation.
Undoubtedly, it should not be overlooked that the rise in the success since 2016 is related to the fact that the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), the instrument of the dark forces of the Atlantic Alliance, has been largely cleared from the civil and military bureaucracy.
Having said that, the Blue Homeland strategy – initiated after the fall of the same dangerous terrorist structure – has come to a point where historic statements will be given on Turkey’s own hydrocarbon rights in the regions of Black Sea, Marmara, Aegean and the Mediterranean.
Turkish construction giant Kalyon Holding’s revolutionary move in solar energy has highlighted Turkey’s economic independence with its renewable resources and the energy it produces.
Kalyon's investment allows Turkey to have the first and only factory in Europe and the Middle East that produces ingots of poly-silicon, one of the most important stages of the solar panel manufacturing and one that requires high-end technology.
The next 10 years will see low carbon competition in global trade. Turkey's historic and revolutionary steps toward renewable energy technologies and resources can enable the exponential growth of our exports to numbers reaching above $220 billion by 2023, primarily from the EU market.
Growth in second quarter
Although the negative impact of COVID-19 on Turkish sectors is still unknown, a rough estimate can be made regarding the manufacturing industries. The agricultural sector, however, has not experienced a major breakdown.
The results indicate that the Turkish economy, with 70% probability, experienced a recession between minus 9.2% and minus 8.05%, with a minus 8.6% median for the second quarter of 2020.
If the losses in the agriculture and services sector are more severe than our estimates, the contraction in the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2020 could reach between minus 13.67% and minus 17.46%.
When we look at the real growth rate of various countries in the second quarter, compared with the same quarter of the previous year and seasonally adjusted, the contraction in the whole EU reached minus 14.1% and minus 15% in the eurozone.
The same rate is minus 22.1% for Spain, minus 21.7% for England, minus 19% for France, minus 17.3% for Italy and minus 11.7% for Germany.
When we go to the Americas, it is observed that Mexico has contracted by 19%, Canada by minus 13.5%, and the U.S. by minus 9.5%.
On the other hand, when we look at Asia, which has been the world's supply center for a long time, while Indonesia shrank by minus 5.4% and South Korea by minus 3%, China experienced a 3.2% growth in the second quarter.
Japan, however, is well separated with a minus 27.8% contraction in the second quarter. This rate is the worst Japan has seen since 1955. Although the Chinese and Asian economies are trying to mitigate the effects of the global virus pandemic, another risk awaiting them is new quests in the global supply chain.