Turkey’s internal politics is currently undergoing significant changes due to widening fissures within political alliances, the emergence of new political parties and Turkey’s ever-changing political agenda. To predict the consequences of these changes in Turkey’s near future, it is imperative to analyze the ongoing reshaping of Turkey’s internal politics.
The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) remains anxious about the exposition of its alliance with the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).
The electoral success of the main oppositional CHP in the local elections of June 23 occurred thanks to its alliance not only with the Good Party (İP) but also with the HDP. Nevertheless, the CHP has abstained from announcing their alliance with the HDP.
Meanwhile, the HDP appears resentful of the CHP’s reluctance to openly acknowledge their electoral alliance, despite their contribution to their success in the local elections of Istanbul. Pervin Buldan, the HDP’s co-chair, recently announced that the HDP’s grassroots demand that their alliance with the CHP be transparent.
Despite the HDP’s official call in its congress, the CHP’s leadership would like to keep their alliance under wraps not only to prevent a possible backlash from its secular-nationalist voter base but also to conserve its alliance with the Turkish nationalist İP. Recent resignations of members of Parliament from the İP have affirmed the CHP’s anxiety.
A transparent alliance between the HDP and the CHP might force the İP to leave the Nation Alliance.
If the implicit alliance between the HDP and the CHP becomes an open alliance, the İP might leave the Nation Alliance. In this case, the nationalist voting base of the İP would most probably cease to support the CHP in the upcoming elections of 2023.
In order to preserve its political existence and to become an established political institution, the İP should adopt an independent political position by separating itself from the alliance formed between the CHP and the HDP.
Emerging political parties cannot find a serious support base within the Turkish constituency.
Former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s newly founded Future Party will take part in the upcoming elections of 2023. Former Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan is also expected to form a new political party of his own. However, these emerging political parties cannot have yet to establish a significant support base within the Turkish constituency, as the existing political parties continue to preserve their voting rates.
Turkey’s internal politics is undergoing significant changes.
As the implicit alliance between the HDP and the CHP becomes transparent, the Nation Alliance could come to an end, while the CHP might encounter backlash from its nationalist voters. If the CHP insists on preserving the secrecy of its alliance, the HDP itself might look for new electoral strategies. This divergence in political alliances could change the balance of power in the political order.
The CHP’s impossible challenge is to please different political groups simultaneously. It seems highly unlikely that the CHP’s populist political discourses could please its secular-nationalist voting base, Turkish nationalist voters of the İP, conservative voters of the Felicity Party (SP), Kurdish nationalist and marginal socialist voters of the HDP, and former voters of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) who have distanced themselves from the ruling political party due to economic issues.
As Turkey’s internal politics undergoes significant changes, all political parties have to develop new political approaches, new electoral strategies and new electoral discourse to gain the public's support.