Turkey is opposing Sweden and Finland’s bid for NATO membership, arguing that any new NATO candidate must recognize Turkey's security concerns. Ankara says that Finland and to a greater degree Sweden have been backing PKK militias and organizations for years on their soil, highlighting that the Nordic countries have applied a weapons embargo on Turkey as well. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government wants them to stop backing the PKK, recognized internationally as a terrorist organization, and to end the weapon ban on NATO member Turkey.

Ankara’s demands

The Turkish government demands that these two countries publicly denounce not only the PKK but also its affiliates before being allowed to join the security alliance. Actually, Ankara’s reservations come from past regret. Turkey accepted Greece’s return to NATO in the '80s after the war in 1974 over Cyprus, which is clearly seen as a vital mistake today. Thus, Turkish officials do not want to repeat the same mistake since Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration emerged as key obstacles, blocking Turkey’s European Union membership and rejecting a United Nations vote on a unification plan for the island. Now what Turkey expects from Sweden and Finland is to commit to standing in solidarity with Ankara against the PKK.

On the other hand, there are also other issues, such as being excluded from the F-35 program. Although Turkey clearly says it is not bargaining over other issues, this objection may open the door to being re-included in the program. Besides Ankara also wants new F-16s from the U.S. and to upgrade the kits for its existing fleet. Therefore, Turkey’s objection might encourage all these discussions and lay new ground for dialogue.

The war and its reflection

All 30 members of NATO must agree to admit new candidates. Turkey can block Sweden and Finland's memberships, which raises eyebrows in the alliance given that since the Russian occupation of Ukraine, the West has become a fierce bloc. However, I myself have doubts about approving such an application in these circumstances. Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has already made his objections about deploying troops in these countries, may view it as provocative. Russia hit Ukraine based on the possibility of Kyiv’s NATO membership; so who can guarantee that Moscow won’t hit Stockholm or Helsinki during the negotiation process? In my view, the timing is not right. The hot war zone in Ukraine should calm down at least before the application process continues. But this is my opinion. Ankara does not base its objection on the situation in Ukraine or on Russia’s position. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said: "Our stance is perfectly clear and open. This is not a threat, not a negotiation, we are trying to leverage our interests."

What the minister said is important. Sweden should lift the arms embargo against Turkey. Sinan Ülgen, a former diplomat and director of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), an Istanbul-based think tank, says it is unreasonable for a NATO country to impose an arms embargo on another ally within the same alliance.

It is also natural to ask Sweden in particular to be more active against the PKK, which Turkey has been fighting for 40 years, over the course of which it has taken thousands of lives through acts of terrorism.

So if there is a ground for dialogue, these problems can be discussed and overcome. Ankara is not intrinsically opposing Sweden and Finland’s membership. It only wants the alliance to emphasize with Turkey and understand its security concerns.