The Middle East has been undergoing a major transformation for the last two decades. First, the Arab Uprising and Revolutions that erupted in 2011 have uprooted the region. The Arab peoples started to rebel against their oppressive regimes with good intentions. That is why it was coined as the "Arab Spring” by international observers. Then, some pro-status quo regional powers such as Iran, Israel and the United Arab Emirates, and global powers such as the United States and Russia, directly or indirectly intervened in the regional crises and turned the region upside down.

Eventually, the "Arab Spring” turned into an "Arab Winter,” and the Arab world began to experience one of the worst periods in its history. However, the spirit of the Arab uprisings of 2011 continued to influence the regional balance of power. While most of the heavyweight players in the Arab world lost their influence in the region, Israel experienced one of the most secure periods in its history, as there was no longer any potentially threatening Arab state in the region. State structures in Tunisia, Libya, Syria and Iraq largely collapsed. Egypt, the largest and strongest Arab state, was severely weakened.

Israel tried to exploit the conjuncture and fill the power vacuum left by the Arab states. First, it tried to impose its hegemony through the Abraham Accords. Several Arab states such as the UAE, Morocco and Bahrain diplomatically recognized the state of Israel, and they agreed to let it resolve the Palestinian issue on its own terms. In other words, the Palestinian issue was considered a burden to be rid of. The Abraham Accords that secured Israel’s regional hegemony were used as the main instruments for the ultimate solution.

Having freed itself from regional threats, Israel began to act recklessly. Its unrestricted aggression and expansionism in the region, its genocide against the Palestinian people, and its attacks on the regional countries have severely undermined regional stability and plunged the region into further chaos. Unfortunately, most Western global powers remained silent in the face of all of Israel’s atrocities.

Lastly, the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, followed by Iran’s retaliation, have dramatically altered the regional power equation and disrupted the existing regional order. All regional states, both involved and uninvolved, became increasingly concerned about their political sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national security, realizing that neither the U.S. nor any other Western power would protect them.

New regional context

After Iran lost its influence, a major power vacuum emerged in the region. As a result of these altered conditions, there has been a significant change in the mindset in the Middle East. Regional and global powers have begun to restructure their policies in accordance with the new realities. Upon closer examination, we can see that all actors have drawn different conclusions from the new regional environment.

In this new context, two countries, Türkiye and Israel, have come to the forefront, trying to fill this power vacuum. However, these two states have different and often conflicting perspectives, which causes them to compete and clash in the region. Accordingly, the other regional states are divided into two fronts: while some support the Israeli stance, others support the Turkish vision.

The U.S. has relatively understood the new situation in the Middle East and implemented a withdrawal from the region. Determined to reduce its military presence in most states in the region, it appears that the U.S. will soon withdraw its forces from Iraq, just as it did in Syria. Although it is the strongest supporter of Israel, the U.S. has been trying to follow a relatively balanced policy between Israel and Muslim states. Therefore, it does not alienate Türkiye to the extent that Israel desires. For instance, U.S. government officials welcomed the Mecca Pact signed by Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

However, the major European countries are either unable or unwilling to accurately interpret what is happening in the region. On the one hand, major European powers such as Germany provide unconditional support for Israel’s aggression, regional expansionism, and, more importantly, its genocidal policies against the Palestinians. On the other hand, European countries continue to adopt a condescending attitude toward the countries of the region. For the sake of supporting Israel, they do not hesitate to alienate Muslim countries across the region.

Arab states were divided into two groups in their response to developments in the region. Some Arab states such as the UAE continued to maintain good relations with Israel, while others such as Saudi Arabia reconsidered their relationship with it. The second group, seeking greater cooperation against potential threats, largely turned to Türkiye, the country with the best understanding of regional developments and the only remaining state that can prevent Israeli expansionism.

Türkiye's perspective

The new perspective developed by Türkiye is based on "regional ownership,” which calls for states to find their own solutions to their problems and offers an exit strategy for all regional states willing to participate in the project. This perspective calls for the development of regional cooperation processes and the empowerment of state capacity in the region. It prioritizes the establishment of complementary regional platforms, institutions, mechanisms, and networks. Regional ownership provides a framework based on equal partnership.

This perspective is rooted in a quest for peace and stability. Ankara has been calling on all regional states to play constructive roles in the normalization of Middle Eastern politics. In other words, no single actor should be able to dominate the region. This is how states can achieve cooperation and mutual trust through regional ownership. Turkish officials have been calling on all sides to normalize their relations with their neighbors. If Türkiye and its allies fail to establish genuine regional ownership, they will remain dependent on some of their neighbors and on global powers.

The Turkish perspective is an inclusive one. In principle, it embraces all relevant regional actors by establishing a continuous dialogue. Therefore, the possibility of expanding the Mecca Collective Security Treaty is quite high.

Türkiye has been working to build a terror-free region. One of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s latest mottos is the consolidation of the domestic front. The Turkish government is determined to establish greater domestic political unity and, subsequently, to create a terror-free region. Accordingly, Türkiye has begun to oppose regional actors that threaten this objective while seeking to build a broader political coalition. Turkish officials understand well that without achieving a terror-free region, it will be almost impossible to consolidate the domestic front. A terror-free Türkiye and a terror-free region are therefore two complementary phases of the same project.

Israel's perspective

This perspective, based on Israel’s regional hegemony, demands political instability for the region. Its main goal is to establish a hierarchical regional order. The essence of the Abraham Accords is ensuring Israel’s supremacy. Therefore, Israel has been following a destructive policy toward all regional actors.

It is trying to ensure that every Muslim state in the region remains weak, and Türkiye is no exception. Its recent attacks on Syria are also aimed at this destructive goal. Most regional states opposed Israel’s attack on the al-Zuhur military base, which was also intended as a message to Türkiye.

Lastly, Israel is trying to restrict Türkiye’s influence in the region and is therefore persistently seeking to marginalize Türkiye. It tried to use the Kurdish card against Türkiye, but it failed to do so. The Syrian Kurds, on the other hand, have been trying to integrate with the rest of the Syrian state. Now, Israel has been trying to use the Druze card against both the Syrian government and Türkiye. However, the exploitation of ethnic and religious identities is destined to fail. Türkiye, together with many other actors, has begun to take measures against potential threats.