Years ago, Politico, one of the most prominent American magazines, published an article on Turkey. The article was about the balance of power in the country. The premise was that the power diagram in Turkey was composed of three vectors. First, there was President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) as the active forces in civilian politics, the second power was the military elite and the third vector was the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ). According to the magazine's predictions, whichever of these powers eliminated the others would determine the future of Turkey.

While publishing such an article, Politico magazine probably defined the powers as friends and foes, as is the general approach of the United States.

NATO as a ruling tool

It is a little-known fact that after World War II, the U.S. tethered most European states, such as Germany, Italy and others, to itself through military tutelage using the NATO concept. Although Turkey was not on the defeated side of the war, it was connected to the U.S. through military tutelage by means of the 1960 military coup. This tutelage renewed itself through new coups in every period when it was weakened. In 1997, the Feb. 28 declaration, widely known as the "postmodern coup," forced the government to resign. It was later clear that FETÖ never had civilian plans. The terror organization's aim was to seize the country by employing military forces, like those who staged coups on behalf of the U.S. Again, the common public opinion later came to be that FETÖ never desired to rule the country but to prepare for its invasion.

Within 10 years, the AK Party government and its leader, Erdoğan, defeated the other two vectors of power mentioned and handed the country over to civilian politics in a reliable manner. Turkey has regained its strength by overcoming extensive incidents such as the bombing of its Parliament and fighting against terrorist organizations. Eventually, Turkey became not only strong again but also well aware of the limits of its power.

Therefore, the prophecy of Politico magazine has come true and Erdoğan has succeeded in shaping today's Turkey.

Domestic and foreign politics

The level of the AK Party government's genius in domestic politics became clear in the first 10 years as a struggle took place mainly within the country. The AK Party spearheaded a revolutionary success story in domestic politics.

The new Turkey’s stance and attitude regarding its rights in the international arena at that time were not so clear. Turkey's exemplary foreign policy was more evident when conflicts of interest with Western states emerged. Each counter-struggle resulted in Turkey getting incrementally stronger. The AK Party government provided foreign policy achievements in the second decade of its ruling. Like the ingenious work carried out in domestic politics in the first decade, the AK Party government accomplished successes in foreign policy in the second decade.

The 2023 Turkish presidential elections are scheduled. As has been the case for the last 20 years, opposition parties have not been able to exert much influence. They have no vision for the future. Thus, with the election, the AK Party has a shot at being the most effective vector in Turkey's future.

Two problems appear in front of the government: first, the opposition, which gathered strength against the People's Alliance by making alliances on the way to the elections; the second, the cost of living.

No crisis in the last 20 years has had such an impact on the AK Party government. The AK Party has never taken the existing cultural and intellectual criticisms of the opposition seriously. The high cost of living has also strengthened the effectiveness of the opposition's non-economic criticisms. Until recently, the AK Party was able to keep the public support behind it without getting hurt.

Rationality test

Since the day it was founded, the AK Party has been rational. It would not be wrong to say it was the party that brought rationality to Turkish politics. The AK Party governments continue their beneficial investments as they always have and are not slowing down even if the political return of such investments in the elections is negligible.

For two years, the pandemic has created economic imbalances across the world. Once we declared that the pandemic was over, the Russian-Ukrainian war started in our region. Meanwhile, all the states of the world are trying to cope with this situation in their own ways.

There has not been an energy crisis or a supply chain break in food and other commodities in Turkey. However, the abnormal price increase is similar to the examples in the rest of the world. Inflation is very high and exchange rates are rising uncontrollably. This situation is damaging.

The government maintains its rationality in all areas and takes measures, including reasonable steps in the economy.

The AK Party must get its voters to understand that the government is taking "rational" steps in the economy as far as world conditions allow. If this can be achieved, it will provide a significant advantage to winning the 2023 elections because the AK Party's biggest opponent in the elections is the cost of living.