The unprecedented array of world late crises has set human progress five years backward and fueled a global wave of uncertainty, said Human Development Index (HDI) report released recently by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

Titled "Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World," the report warns that due to the impacts of the multiple crises, mounting layers of uncertainty and increasing polarization, human development has dropped to its 2016 levels, "reversing much of the progress" toward the Sustainable Development Goals.

"We've had disasters before. We've had conflicts before. But the confluence of what we're facing right now is a major setback to human development," UNDP chief Achim Steiner said.

UNDP Index

For the first time in 32 years, the UNDP report — a measure of countries' life expectancies, education levels and living standards — declined for two years straight, in 2020 and 2021.

According to the report, the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, sweeping social and economic shifts, dangerous planetary changes, and an increase in polarization pushed the HDI score down for over 90% of countries in either 2020 or 2021, with more than 40% registering a decline in both years – erasing the gains of the preceding five years.

"Nine out of 10 countries in this year's human development report index are shown to have faced a decline," Steiner said. "This has never happened before, even at the height of the last global recession which broke out in 2007, the index declined in only around one in 10 countries," he added.

This year’s rankings showed that some countries are beginning to get back on their feet, while others remain mired in deepening crises.

According to the index, Switzerland is the most highly developed country in the world while Norway and Iceland come in close second and third place. Germany came in ninth place, behind Sweden, Denmark and Ireland, but ahead of the Netherlands and Finland.

The United States took first place in 1990 when the index was first calculated but has since slipped to 21st place.

The least developed country listed in the ranking is South Sudan, followed by Chad and Niger. North Korea, Somalia, Nauru and Monaco were not listed on the index.

The 2021 index data counted Hong Kong, which came fourth as the most highly developed territory in Asia, separately from mainland China, but not Taiwan or Macao.

The report pointed out that "not all indicators were available for all countries."

The report's lead author, Pedro Conceicao, said that the unprecedented decline in human development was driven by economic recession and an extraordinary life expectancy decline.

This includes the 21st-ranked United States, which has seen a dramatic drop in life expectancy due to COVID-19 from 79 years to 76.1 years.

Besides, Conceicao said that other new data from the report show global levels of trust are the lowest on record, adding that those who are most mistrustful hold the most extreme political views.

"Uncertainty and the feeling of insecurity harden people’s commitments to a group that shares a similar set of beliefs and increases hostility to other groups that think differently," he said.

"And digital technology often adds fuel to this flame of divisiveness. So, as a result, the report documents that democratic practices are under stress," he added.

Steiner said, "The world is scrambling to respond to back-to-back crises. We have seen with the cost of living and energy crises that, while it is tempting to focus on quick fixes like subsidizing fossil fuels, immediate relief tactics are delaying the long-term systemic changes we must make."

New uncertainty complex

Further, the report identifies an emerging "uncertainty complex," fed by three "volatile and interacting strands" of the destabilizing planetary pressures and inequalities of the Anthropocene, the pursuit of sweeping societal transformations to ease those pressures and the widespread and intensifying polarization.

This uncertainty complex, it stresses, is unsettling lives and impeding human development.

"We are living through very distressing times, whether it is a world underwater, a world with no water, a world on fire or a world amid the pandemic," Steiner said.

The report extends the conversations of earlier reports and presents a fresh narrative on human development, examining how novel layers of uncertainties interact to create new kinds of uncertainty in addition to the everyday uncertainty that people have faced in the past.

These novel sources of uncertainty are associated with the Anthropocene's dangerous planetary change, the transition toward new ways of organizing industrial societies, and the intensification of political and social polarization across and within countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine have led to global energy, food and finance crises and are devastating manifestations of today's uncertainty. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has repeatedly warned of a prolonged global food crisis due to the confluence of war, the pandemic and warming temperatures.

Challenges

Reducing inequalities in human development in the 21st century rests in our hands. By unlocking our human potential and tapping into our creativity and diversity anchored in trust and solidarity, will challenge us to imagine, aspire, and create futures in which we thrive.

The publication suggests that among the many reasons why the change isn’t happening is the loop of insecurity and polarization feeding off each other "to prevent the solidarity and collective action we need to tackle crises at all levels."

To chart a new course, the report calls to tackle the roots of interconnected challenges, and recommends implementing policies that focus on investment in an array of areas from renewable energy to preparedness for pandemics, and insurance - including social protection, so as to prepare our societies for the ups and downs of an uncertain world.

Besides, innovation in many forms can also build capacities to respond to whatever challenges come next.

The Human Development Report has made it possible to fundamentally reconsider the place of the individual in development, including the impact of direct intervention by humankind into the earth system and nature.

"To navigate uncertainty, we need to double down on human development and look beyond improving people’s wealth or health ... to protect the planet and provide people with the tools they need to feel more secure, regain a sense of control over their lives and have hope for the future," Pedro Conceicao, said.

* Palestinian author, researcher and freelance journalist; recipient of two prizes from the Palestinian Union of Writers