Shortly after the outbreak of World War II, Germany defeated France in 1940. Four years later, with the decisive support of the U.S., the U.K. and Canada, France was liberated from German occupation. At the end of the war, it became one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council with veto power. The U.S. and the U.K. wanted the France they had helped liberate to re-emerge as a major power in post-war Europe. There were two principal reasons for this: to prevent Germany from becoming dominant once again and to establish a strong Western European state capable of balancing the Soviet Union.

The central figure of the French resistance during this period was French general and statesman Charles de Gaulle. De Gaulle envisioned a France that would remain an independent global power while taking part in the process of European integration. Despite France's status as a permanent member of the UNSC, De Gaulle believed that European integration could reduce France's political weight by placing it on the same footing as medium-sized European states and increasing the influence of supranational institutions.

Unlike the hardline nationalists of his time, he was not opposed to European integration. He believed that it would help keep Germany under control, strengthen France economically, reduce its dependence on the U.S., and reinforce Western Europe against the Soviet threat. In his view, these objectives would ultimately deliver greater security, stability and prosperity.

What De Gaulle rejected, however, was the idea of a "United States of Europe." He did not envision a Europe that governed its member states, but rather one in which sovereign nations cooperated while preserving their independence. This vision became known as "Europe of Nations."

The political debates of that era continue to shape French politics today. The divide between isolationist nationalists and the Gaullist, pro-European tradition remains at the heart of France’s political landscape.

Contemporary French politics

The fundamental disagreement between France’s pro-European President Emmanuel Macron and his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen is no longer about whether France should remain in the EU. Rather, it concerns the scope of the EU’s authority and the extent of its influence over French politics.

Macron advocates deeper European integration through common defense, industry and foreign policies while seeking to position France as the leading force behind this vision by placing French identity at its center.

Leader of the National Rally (RN) party, Marine Le Pen, by contrast, does not reject the EU itself but argues for a more limited form of integration. Her vision calls for reducing EU involvement in France’s domestic affairs, restoring national control over immigration policy, preventing EU law from taking precedence over French law, and limiting the powers of Brussels. In essence, she advocates safeguarding French identity and preserving France’s full national sovereignty within the EU.

The roots of this debate lie in the way France perceives itself. France has never regarded itself as merely a medium-sized European state. As one of history’s greatest colonial powers, it continues to retain a strong sense of geopolitical prestige. Today, France remains a permanent member of the UNSC, a nuclear power, and a country with overseas territories and a vast exclusive economic zone (EEZ) stretching from Africa to Latin America. Combined with its extensive military capabilities and economic influence, these assets make France considerably more powerful than most other EU member states.

In this context, France will hold its next presidential election in 2027, and the outcome is expected to have consequences extending well beyond the country’s borders.

Rising profile of Le Pen

At present, Le Pen appears to be the strongest contender. If she wins the presidency, France is likely to undergo profound political change. Le Pen is a transformative political leader. Since taking over the nationalist-populist party founded by her father in 2011, she has fundamentally reshaped both its identity and its political vision.

To understand what France might look like under a Le Pen presidency, it is necessary to examine both her political trajectory and the evolution of the party she transformed.

The RN party was founded in 1972 by Jean-Marie Le Pen under the name National Front. The party emerged from a coalition of the nationalist Ordre Nouveau movement, Secret Army Organization (OAS) circles that opposed Algeria’s independence, the Pieds-Noirs, former Waffen-SS volunteers who had collaborated with Nazi Germany, radical Catholic groups, and anti-communist movements.

Its ideological foundations rested on French nationalism, opposition to immigration, anti-communism, anti-Semitism and the revival of France’s historical global power and prestige, captured in the concept of "grandeur." Its principal targets of criticism were NATO, European integration, and the dismantling of France’s colonial empire.

The party entered a new era in 2011 when Marine Le Pen succeeded her father as leader. She launched a comprehensive transformation of both the party’s image and its political agenda, culminating in a remarkable achievement in the 2022 presidential election, where she won 41.2% of the vote in the second round.

To reach that point, Le Pen worked to broaden the appeal of a party that had received only around 10% of the vote when she inherited its leadership. The party’s name, logo and political language were redesigned, and anti-Semitic discourse was abandoned. Anti-EU rhetoric was softened, and the defense of the welfare state moved to the center of the party’s platform. In France, this transformation became known as "dédiabolisation," the process of normalizing a party.

Her determination to reshape the party went so far that, in 2015, she expelled her own father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, because he opposed this new direction.

In 2018, she completed this transformation by renaming the party as National Rally.

Marine Le Pen also abandoned the antisemitic rhetoric that had characterized her father’s leadership. Instead, she embraced a political discourse centered on radical Islam and terrorism, while openly supporting Israel’s security concerns in the Middle East. This shift brought her greater legitimacy among pro-Israel circles.

In short, the prospect of a radical right-wing populist government in France is no longer a distant possibility. Should Le Pen come to power, France is likely to witness significant changes in both its domestic and foreign policies.

Macron vs. Le Pen in 2027 elections

Despite her strong electoral prospects, Le Pen's path to power is far from straightforward. Her political rivalry with Macron has become one of the most intense strategic contests in contemporary French politics, resembling a gladiatorial duel.

To understand this high-stakes confrontation, it is worth taking a closer look.

Since President Macron lost his parliamentary majority in 2022, Le Pen has systematically turned motions of no confidence into a powerful political weapon.

The first clash came in February 2023, when the Macron government attempted to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 by invoking Article 49.3 of the Constitution and bypassing a parliamentary vote. Le Pen responded by tabling a motion of no confidence. She followed with several more over the budget, energy policy, and the Mercosur trade agreement.

Macron's real political crisis began after the 2024 elections. None of the political parties secured enough seats to form a government. Meanwhile, RN emerged as one of the strongest forces in the National Assembly and acquired significant political leverage. By coordinating tactically with the left, it reached a position where it could bring down governments through votes of no confidence whenever it chose.

As a result, Macron was unable to form a stable government for an extended period. The prime ministers he appointed were brought down one after another, leaving France in prolonged political paralysis. Although Michel Barnier and François Bayrou were all appointed prime minister, none managed to remain in office because of the political "pincer strategy" employed by Le Pen and the left.

As the political kingmaker, Le Pen repeatedly capitalized on this leverage, keeping the Sword of Damocles hanging over Macron. But she did not stop there. She also backed the Yellow Vest protests against the government, further intensifying the political pressure on Macron.

Macron, however, also had powerful cards to play. He accused Le Pen of being "Putin's Trojan Horse in France," citing the loan her party received from a Russian bank in 2014 and accusing the party of receiving funding from Russia.

But an even greater challenge soon emerged. Le Pen's legal troubles began to surface. She was prosecuted for using EU funds for party activities during her term as a Member of the European Parliament between 2004 and 2016.

In March 2025, the Paris Criminal Court found Le Pen guilty of misusing public funds for the benefit of her party. She was sentenced to four years in prison, fined 100,000 euros, and barred from holding political office for five years.

The political ban effectively ruled out her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election. Reacting furiously to the verdict, Le Pen denounced the case as a "witch hunt” and presented the inexperienced Jordan Bardella as her alternative leader. Her strategy was to preserve the party’s electoral strength throughout the five-year ban while continuing to direct both the party and, politically, the country from behind the scenes. Once the ban expired, she expected to reclaim the party leadership easily from Bardella, whose personal political influence is limited.

Just as it seemed that the court ruling had brought the Macron-Le Pen rivalry to a halt, a surprising development unfolded. In July 2026, the Court of Appeal reduced Le Pen's sentence.

Her prison sentence was reduced to one year, to be served under electronic monitoring, while her political ban was shortened to 15 months. Because the revised ban will expire before the 2027 presidential election, the ruling reopened the legal path for Le Pen to run for the presidency.

This time, however, Macron will not be Le Pen's opponent, as the French Constitution does not allow a president who has served two consecutive terms to seek a third consecutive term. Nevertheless, much like Le Pen's Bardella strategy, political circles in France are increasingly speculating that Macron may back another candidate to manage the 2027 election before attempting his own political comeback.

The rivalry between Le Pen and Macron is far from over. Both are backed by powerful political networks and influential allies. As France moves toward the 2027 presidential election, this rivalry is likely to produce many more political surprises.