Türkiye held local elections on March 31 and local politicians were elected to office for the next five years. While there was a significant decrease in voting rates of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has emerged stronger and increased its voting base, especially in the majority of metropolitan cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and Antalya.

Political analysts note that despite granting President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan a significant victory, garnering over 52% of the vote in last year's presidential election, the Turkish electorate has now expressed discontent with the government by voting against it. It is believed that voters, who strategically entrusted the country's leadership to President Erdoğan until 2028, have opted to voice their concerns amid the ongoing cost-of-living crisis and hardships. In this local election, where there was no risk of a change in the central government, reactive voting behavior took precedence over strategic voting behavior.

As the local elections have the potential to give the first signals about the upcoming general elections in four years, it is of great importance for the AK Party to evaluate the results of this election properly and take the necessary steps. The first message given by President Erdoğan regarding the results seemed to be his awareness of this: "The will of the nation is manifested at the ballot box. The nation has its say through the ballot box. The nation conveys its message to the politician through the ballot box. The nation conveys its warning and appreciation through the ballot box. March 31 is a turning point for us. We will discuss the reasons for this decline on a local basis. Wherever we lose, we will identify the reasons and make the necessary interventions."

Erdoğan basically meant "message received" and signaled that his party would scrutinize the outcome extensively. Likewise, as an important note, Erdoğan also declared stern support for the current orthodox anti-inflationary economic policies aimed at achieving macroeconomic stability and that he would remain loyal to the Medium-Term Program with tight fiscal and monetary policies.

The post-election political climate holds significant importance for both the opposition's future steps and the government's policies. Therefore, the implications of the March 31 elections extend far beyond a mere local political contest for Türkiye. Understanding the key factors influencing this outcome and interpreting the results within the broader context are essential tasks for foreign analysts, and I have outlined the most pertinent points below.

The effect of 'Gen. P' in Turkish politics

In this election, 1.1 million young people became voters for the first time, while 2.2 million newly retired voters were added to the electorate. In 2023, Türkiye’s elderly ratio exceeded 10% of the population for the first time. The average age of the country in 2023 has reached 35, as a historical peak. Türkiye is rapidly approaching the aging crisis that developed countries are struggling with.

In this context, pensioners were the most important voter segment in this election. Retired voters, troubled with the economic crisis, have waited until the last minute for an additional salary increase. Although their salary was increased by 45% upon the reactions following the 39% increase given to retirees at the beginning of the year, this increase was quite insufficient in the face of inflation approaching 70% annually. The fact that the minimum monthly salary is TL 10,000 (approximately $310) has caused a great decline in the purchasing power of retirees. It seems that the election results could have been very different if the government had announced an additional raise for retirees just before the election. Surveys show that retired voters, who remained undecided until the last minute, preferred not to go to the polls or to vote for smaller parties as a reaction.

Retirees will be critical in all future elections in Türkiye, as well, and it is essential that all political policies be determined accordingly. It is no longer Generation Z that determines Türkiye’s politics, but "Generation P" (P for pensioners). With their number approaching 16.5 million, constituting 27% of the voter base of 61 million, retirees will keep on being kingmakers in Turkish politics.

Response to cost-of-living crisis

According to the latest data published by the Confederation of Turkish Labor Unions (Türk-Iş), the hunger limit for a family of four has approached TL 55,000, while the minimum wage is only TL 17,000 and the minimum salary is only TL 10,000.

The elections have shown the citizens’ reaction to the cost-of-living crisis triggered by high inflation, on the one hand, and to the tight monetary policies of the Treasury and Finance Ministry, on the other. Undoubtedly, the economic situation of the country rather than local politics was decisive in this election. It is seen that the foreign exchange crisis and the subsequent cost-of-living crisis that has been experienced during the last two years have significantly affected voters.

The 2023 general elections defied conventional wisdom in political science which suggests that "Empty pots can overthrow governments," yet the recent local elections have proven that "Empty pots can convey significant political messages."

"Empty pots" is a phrase used in Turkish political discourse, often attributed to Süleyman Demirel, a prominent Turkish politician who served as prime minister and president of Türkiye. The phrase refers to the notion that an empty pot, symbolizing discontent or dissatisfaction among the electorate, can have significant political consequences.

Nonetheless, this message should not only be interpreted as a message just to continue the tight monetary policy at a severe social cost. To avoid further political repercussions, the entire cost of the crisis should not be billed just to the low-income segment. By applying a very sensitive policy between tight monetary policies for decreasing inflation and protecting low-income segments with social policy tools, the electorate is required to be reconsolidated.

Reactive voting preference

In last year’s parliamentary and presidential elections, the AK Party received 18.5 million votes, while President Erdoğan received 27.8 million votes. In this election, the AK Party received 16.3 million votes. This represents a decrease of 2.2 million votes for the party and a decrease of 11.5 million compared to the votes received by the Turkish president.

The New Welfare Party (YRP), a relatively small yet firmly established conservative party, appears to have received 2.8 million votes. It is considered that the majority of those who voted for this party are reactive AK Party voters and primarily pensioners. It is seen that the party made a high increase in votes not in the metropolitan cities, but mostly in the conservative and low-income regions of Anatolia.

In addition, the election participation rate reached its lowest level in the last 18 elections in which Erdoğan participated and won. It seems that a significant portion of the AK Party's traditional voters did not show up. While the participation rate in the 2023 general election was 87%, it dropped to 78% in this election. Only 48.1 million out of 61.4 million voters cast their votes, and critically 2.2 million of them cast invalid votes. The doubling in the number of invalid votes compared to the last election shows that invalid votes were a reaction as well. Data shows that a significant portion of AK Party voters, especially retirees and low-income voters, did not go to the polls, and even if they did, they cast invalid votes or reacted by voting for alternative smaller parties.

The results have shown that the opposition has managed to consolidate their electorate after last year's election defeat. Turning the election into an atmosphere of a general election in places where mayors are deemed largely unsuccessful by the public, such as Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, seems to have worked against the AK Party. It is seen that small party voters, such as voters from the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), a successor of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), the Good Party (IP) and the Victory Party (ZP) shifted to the CHP and the party reached 17.4 million by adding 4 million votes to the 13.4 million votes it received in the last election across the country.

Controversially, if the election had been held in the atmosphere of a "local election" and the on-the-ground failure of policies of the candidates had been emphasized, the opposition voters could have voted for the small opposition parties, and it would have felt less like a defeat aimed at the federal government. It seems that the atmosphere of a general election, political polarization and the consolidation of the electorate have helped the opposition in this election. The majority of voters acted reactively rather than assessing the mayor's performance while casting their votes.

Local politics also had an impact on the latest election results. Instead of the names that came first in the surveys and field polls, other candidates were nominated in some constituencies by the governing party. It is seen that public reaction occurs in places where politicians from outside the city are nominated instead of local politicians. In other words, wherever local politics are neglected. The fact that names previously originating from the AK Party were chosen as mayor from other parties in provinces such as Nevşehir and Şanlıurfa also shows the mistakes made in candidate selection.

Likewise, the impact of the major earthquakes that occurred on Feb. 6, 2023, centered in Kahramanmaraş, was also seen in these elections. The fact that the participation rate in the earthquake zone has become the lowest in the country proves this. The problems experienced in strengthening local services despite the time passed since the earthquake seem to have caused this outcome. Likewise, in some constituencies parties that are essentially in line or alliance have competed with each other, and the opposition has managed to benefit from this.

New phase for Turkish politics

The local elections have yielded results that require important lessons to be learned for every Turkish politician. The evolution of the strategic voting behavior we saw in previous elections into reactive voting behavior this time has been decisive. Likewise, it is considered that minimum wage earners and retirees, who deeply feel the effects of the purchasing crisis, wanted to give a warning to the government.

President Erdoğan's first statements show that the message is well received. In fact, Erdoğan has won all the elections over the last two decades because he is a political engineer who reads the behavior and warnings of the voters very well and has a strong political intelligence for reading Turkish society. One can be sure that while Erdoğan is preparing a large-scale renewal and infusing "fresh blood" into his team, he will conduct extensive surveys and field studies to understand the demands of the citizens. Moreover, a continuation of strict policies to prevent the inflation crisis is also an almost sure thing.

Nevertheless, it is critical to take steps to increase the income and living standards of low-income segments, especially pensioners, and to continue anti-inflationary policies. Likewise, the government needs to produce comprehensive policies to listen to the problems of the poorest segments and raise their living standards, specifically in metropolitan cities. It is expected that the AK Party will conduct important internal accounting in the coming days. In summary, whatever the forthcoming days bring, we have entered an important phase of Turkish policies of recent history in which social policies, welfare and economic stability would be critically important.