The regional order in the Middle East and the Mediterranean is undergoing a transformation. Disputes over maritime jurisdiction and the allocation of energy resources have become key issues on the agenda of Mediterranean countries. The maritime jurisdiction agreement signed between Türkiye and Libya has attracted considerable attention, as it creates opportunities for new forms of regional cooperation. Following the agreement, discussions have emerged about extending this framework to include Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Spain. Such an expansion could pave the way for a new, law-based regional partnership and the development of an energy, economic, and security corridor across the Mediterranean. The following sections examine this proposed axis and its legal framework.

Expansion of EEZ

Greater integration across the Mediterranean, supported by agreements on exclusive economic zones (EEZs), offers considerable potential for reducing disputes over maritime jurisdiction and encouraging countries to develop energy resources through cooperation rather than conflict. A win-win approach could generate prosperity for participating countries while also benefiting global markets.

The proposed expansion of this corridor would create a strategic security, economic and energy network extending from Spain in the Western Mediterranean to Türkiye in the east, via North Africa.

At a time when the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait faces a serious risk of closure, and the Black Sea carries similar risks. The Mediterranean could provide an alternative route for reliable and uninterrupted European energy supplies from North Africa, particularly given the substantial natural gas resources of Algeria and Libya. As scenarios involving a third world war are increasingly discussed, this corridor represents a strategically valuable project.

The maritime jurisdiction agreement between Türkiye and Libya is both lawful and legitimate. The 2009 Romania-Ukraine case concerning Snake Island, decided by the International Court of Justice, as well as the maritime agreements concluded between Tunisia and Italy from 1971 to 1979, provide relevant precedents in this regard.

The agreement was concluded with reference to the continental shelf and EEZ rights established under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). It was subsequently registered with the U.N. Secretariat pursuant to Article 102 of the U.N. Charter.

Expanding the scope of the Türkiye-Libya agreement to include Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria and Spain could have a significant impact on regional balances. Unlike the individual energy agreements these countries currently maintain with other states, a broader partnership encompassing defense, economic cooperation, and long-term strategic coordination could provide a more comprehensive and secure foundation for regional cooperation.

Mediterranean countries hold differing positions on maritime jurisdiction. Addressing these disputes through negotiations, developing shared approaches to energy resources, and strengthening cooperation in defense could encourage further countries to participate. Over time, competition in the Mediterranean could give way to a broader framework of regional unity.

EU and Greek perspective

The EU's support for Greece's maritime jurisdiction claims, which Türkiye regards as unjust and contrary to international law, is noteworthy. The reasons behind Brussels’ stance are as follows.

First, energy security will remain a central issue on the international agenda. In this context, ensuring that Mediterranean energy resources and transport corridors remain within the sphere of EU members, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration, would provide the European Union with greater energy security.

Second, Greece's national borders also form part of the EU's external framework. Any expansion of Greece's maritime jurisdiction would therefore have implications for the wider area of European influence.

Third, the issue has an ideological dimension. Some circles wish to undermine Türkiye's legal rights in the Mediterranean in favor of an arrangement that strengthens Israel's regional position. Gas agreements, electricity interconnectors, defense cooperation and other initiatives involving Israel, Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration are viewed as part of a broader effort to increase their influence across the region.

Through its interpretation of the maritime effects of Crete and Rhodes, Greece claims maritime jurisdiction in areas of the Mediterranean that Libya also considers its own. The agreement with Türkiye has enabled Libya to defend its position against Greece's claims over a maritime area of 16,700 square kilometers.

The Eastern Mediterranean is a strategically important region because of its oil and natural gas resources. Türkiye's technological infrastructure, seismic research capabilities, and drilling expertise could help Libya explore and develop its offshore energy resources. In this regard, cooperation between the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) and Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) is particularly important.

Algeria and Tunisia

More comprehensive cooperation between Türkiye, Libya, Algeria and Tunisia could bring together Türkiye's seismic research and drilling technologies, Libya's hydrocarbon resources, Tunisia's strategic geographical position, and Algeria's experience in the energy sector.

The continental shelf represents a major strategic and economic asset in the Mediterranean. The participation of Tunisia and Algeria in a broader framework built around the Türkiye-Libya agreement could strengthen their positions in international discussions on maritime jurisdiction and help protect the maritime areas to which they claim legal entitlement.

Libya ranks among the world's leading holders of proven oil and natural gas reserves. With approximately 48.36 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, it ranks tenth globally, while its estimated 53 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves place it 22nd. It has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa and is also home to one of the continent's major natural gas reserves. Algeria, on the other hand, ranks 15th globally in proven oil reserves, with approximately 12.2 billion barrels, and 10th in proven natural gas reserves, with approximately 159 trillion cubic feet.

Türkiye, with its experience in expanding drilling projects, and Tunisia, with its strategic position in the middle of the Mediterranean, could complement the collective influence of this partnership.

Such cooperation could strengthen trade and security ties while generating economic benefits through energy transit routes crossing participating countries. The exploration and development of the Mediterranean's substantial hydrocarbon resources could create further opportunities for collaboration in energy production, transportation, logistics and regional economic integration. To protect these networks and promote regional stability, the framework could also incorporate joint defense, intelligence and security mechanisms, drawing on Türkiye's advanced defense capabilities.

Egypt despite odds

Meanwhile, Egypt ranks 24th in oil reserves, with approximately 3.3 billion barrels, and 18th in natural gas reserves, with approximately 63 trillion cubic feet. Moreover, the country stands out due to its exceptionally advantageous geopolitical position.

However, Egypt is also among the countries affected by Israel's expansionist ambitions, particularly given Israel's previous occupation of the Sinai Peninsula. Economic difficulties and the risk of domestic instability have compelled Egypt to cooperate with Israel and Greece, despite the resulting loss of maritime jurisdiction. This stance has largely stemmed from Cairo's reluctance to act independently due to its economic vulnerabilities, geopolitical constraints and heavy reliance on financial assistance from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to sustain its economy. Furthermore, the Abraham Accords between the UAE and Israel have placed additional pressure on Egyptian decision-makers to maintain cooperation with Greece and Israel in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Despite these challenges, Egypt has shown a willingness to move toward an EEZ agreement with Türkiye. This would help Cairo secure more than 15,000 additional square kilometers of maritime jurisdiction, along with valuable areas for natural gas and oil exploration that, according to this perspective, Greece has claimed in violation of UNCLOS.

Israel also maintains close cooperation with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration concerning its offshore natural gas resources, including the Leviathan and Tamar fields, as well as its ambitions to access European markets. The proposed EastMed pipeline is part of Israel's broader strategic and economic objectives in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Türkiye-Libya maritime agreement and the proposed Egyptian EEZ framework directly challenge these plans.

Spain could link continents

With their substantial energy potential, Libya and Algeria are important suppliers of natural gas to Europe. By strengthening energy cooperation with these countries, Spain could become a major hub for transporting North African energy resources to European markets. Its geographical location and existing infrastructure make it particularly well-positioned to develop energy connections between North Africa and Europe.

Green hydrogen is another potential area for future cooperation. Transporting green hydrogen, produced using solar energy in North Africa, to European markets would require new energy infrastructure and stronger logistical connections. Spain could play an important role in the transportation and distribution of these energy resources.

Algeria's declaration of an EEZ in 2018 led to disputes concerning maritime jurisdiction around Spain's Balearic Islands. Spain's participation in broader Mediterranean cooperation could create an economic opportunity for both countries, allowing them to pursue mutually beneficial partnerships and explore opportunities to develop offshore resources rather than remain focused on maritime jurisdiction disputes.

At a time when closer security cooperation strengthens their ability to coordinate on migration management and maritime security in the Western Mediterranean, such cooperation could also influence Spain's political position within the EU.

Spain's strategic geographical position connects continents, while the Strait of Gibraltar gives the country considerable importance in both economic affairs and military strategy. Yet, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government's opposition to Israel's military actions has undermined Israel's regional policy, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Sanchez persona non grata. Besides, Netanyahu's threats against Spain concerning a sudden influx of migrants and a train accident, as well as subsequent developments, have drawn significant attention.

Under these circumstances, Spain’s general election in November is vital. Sanchez's continued leadership could create opportunities for the proposed Mediterranean EEZ partnership to advance. Moreover, as geographical and economic balances shift, conflicts intensify, and energy crises emerge, Spain's general election will heavily influence the country's future direction, Mediterranean energy and defense policies, and the course of conflicts in the Middle East.

Syria, Italy and more

Syria's Mediterranean coastline, strategic ports and potential future energy projects make it an important partner in a broader regional cooperation framework. It is expected to reach an EEZ agreement with Türkiye, forming a geostrategic bloc.

Following the stabilization of the new Syrian state, efforts have continued to destabilize the country through uprisings, airstrikes, and the activities of terrorist organizations, with Israel playing a role in this process. Israeli occupation also continues in the Golan Heights.

Syria's participation in the bloc would help strengthen its security, political and economic stability, support the country's reconstruction, and regional economic networks.

Should a Mediterranean EEZ alliance come into being, it could also attract Italy's interest and encourage Rome to consider joining the partnership. Through the opportunities offered by a Mediterranean EEZ framework, Italy could seek to respond more constructively to a global environment increasingly shaped by crises and conflicts. Cooperation in energy, security, migration and trade could support a more stable path focused on development and regional security.

The Mediterranean EEZ framework serves as a corridor for energy security, green energy, trade, logistics, and shared prosperity based on mutual benefit and economic development. Such cooperation could also promote a fairer and more equitable win-win development model, offering an alternative to external powers' efforts to expand their political and economic influence across Europe, Asia and Africa.