Relations between the United States and Israel, which have recently been described as an unshakable partnership or the closest of alliances, have faced a significant test due to critical elections held in both countries. On Oct. 27, Israel held general elections, and the ruling bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost its majority in the Knesset. Lately, President Isaac Herzog tasked opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot with forming the new government. Meanwhile, on Nov. 3, the Republican Party lost its majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the U.S. midterm elections.

Given this situation, questions remain as to whether the defeats suffered by the leaders of both countries will alter the dynamics of U.S.-Israel relations, which have thus far been touted as a model partnership. This is of the utmost importance because the course of U.S.-Israel relations shapes not only the relationship between the two countries but also U.S. policy toward the Middle East. Therefore, it is useful to examine the dynamics that have shifted following the elections and outline the policies that both countries are likely to pursue toward one another.

Relations before election

Israel is an exceptional country that holds a bipartisan position in U.S. politics, thanks to the intensive efforts of the Jewish lobby within the U.S. legislative and executive branches. In other words, regardless of which party holds the presidency or a majority in Congress, Israel has always been protected and supported, and ensuring Israel’s security has become one of the fundamental goals of U.S. foreign policy.

While the U.S. has shaped its Middle East policy with a focus on Israel’s security, it has also sought to normalize relations between Israel and countries in the region. In this context, it has not only proposed plans to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but has also played a significant role in facilitating peace agreements between Israel and the regional countries. U.S. administrations, which have backed Israel at the United Nations and other international organizations, have provided military and economic support to Israel while also shielding it from isolation and sanctions. As a result, Israel has been able to commit human rights violations against Palestinians for years, while simultaneously expanding its occupation of Palestinian territories.

The U.S.’s excessive support for Israel has at times reached such a point that, even though there was no American interest at stake, steps were taken solely on the grounds of Israel’s security and interests. For this reason, the U.S. has faced intense criticism worldwide. The U.S., which has supported Israel’s attacks on Gaza before, has also turned a blind eye to the genocide committed after Oct. 7. In this context, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on prosecutors and judges in an attempt to discredit the ongoing genocide case before the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against Netanyahu.

As if all this weren’t enough, the fact that President Donald Trump first struck Iran’s nuclear facilities during the 12-Day War in June 2025 and then stood by Israel’s side in the following war with Iran is highly significant in terms of demonstrating U.S. policy toward Israel.

However, despite their close ties, Trump reportedly began distancing himself from Netanyahu as the war in Iran failed to unfold as planned and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove up energy prices, fueling public criticism in the U.S. This shift was also seen as an attempt to avoid influencing the upcoming Israeli elections. It has even been reported that Trump did not meet with Netanyahu, who had come to the U.S. for the 81st session of the U.N. General Assembly, for this very reason.

Impact of genocide, war

Had both Netanyahu and Trump won the elections, no significant changes in U.S.-Israel relations would have been expected, as both leaders would have consolidated their political power. However, with both leaders losing the elections, certain contentious issues can no longer be swept under the rug.

One of the most significant of these issues has been the support provided by U.S. administrations to the genocide in Gaza. Both former President Joe Biden and Trump provided strong support for Israel’s policies in Palestine, and were criticized both domestically and internationally as a result. Gaza, which cost the Biden administration the 2024 election, was also one of the main reasons for Trump’s defeat in the midterm elections.

Trump won the 2024 election on promises to revive the economy, make America great again and, perhaps most importantly, end wars around the world. Yet, he has pursued policies that have produced the opposite of what he pledged. Against this backdrop, it becomes clearer why American voters punished the Republican Party in the midterm elections.

Furthermore, despite the signing of the Gaza cease-fire agreement on Oct. 10, 2025, following Trump’s efforts, the lack of positive developments on the ground and the fact that the Peace Council, established with high hopes, has yet to make any significant impact have also contributed to the decline in support for Trump.

However, the most significant development affecting the dynamics of relations both between the two countries and between Trump and Netanyahu has undoubtedly been the war with Iran. For a while, when Trump was still intoxicated by the "victory” of the intervention in Venezuela, Netanyahu convinced him that he could similarly and easily overthrow the Iranian regime, drawing him into the war. However, despite all its losses, Iran’s resilience and its play of the Strait of Hormuz card not only caused Israel’s fanciful plan to collapse but also dashed Trump’s hopes.

As the war in Iran has dragged on far beyond its initially projected three to four days, its costs for both Israel and the U.S. have mounted. Israel has faced some of the most intense attacks in its history, undermining public confidence in Netanyahu, while rising living and energy costs have fueled opposition to Trump in the U.S., where calls for an end to the war are growing.

Had the U.S. and Israel succeeded in overthrowing the Iranian government, it could have been portrayed as a major victory, much like Venezuela. Instead, the failure fueled disappointment, prompted a reassessment of bilateral relations and influenced elections in both countries, casting a shadow over their so-called unshakable partnership.

Public-government divide

The most significant self-criticism regarding why the Republicans lost the midterm elections came from Vice President JD Vance. In a post on his social media account, Vance noted that "everyone knows why the elections were lost” and stated that "for the Republican Party to win back its voters, it must, first and foremost, end the war, improve people’s living conditions by lowering inflation, prioritize U.S. interests above all else and, perhaps most importantly, change its relationship with Israel.” This has led us to believe that the U.S.’s current policy toward Israel will be altered.

The Jewish lobby’s influence on U.S. politics has also been shaken at this point. As U.S. voters have expressed dissatisfaction with Israel’s policy toward Gaza and called on politicians to prioritize domestic issues, many American politicians have even been forced to declare that they have not received financial support from AIPAC. These developments are expected to lead the U.S. to reevaluate its relations with Israel in the coming period.

A similar shift on the Israeli side also appears inevitable. Indeed, because Netanyahu has tied Israel’s relations with the U.S. almost exclusively to Trump and has virtually cut off communication with the Democrats, critics have begun to argue that U.S.-Israel relations have become politicized and lost their nonpartisan character, a development that harms Israel’s interests. The most concrete examples of this include Trump’s alignment with Türkiye’s position on Syria and his efforts to withdraw from the war in Iran without achieving regime change or eliminating the so-called nuclear threat.

Although Trump endorsed Netanyahu just before the election, Israeli voters did not give him the support needed to form a government, suggesting that U.S. influence over Israeli politics is waning. Shortly after the election, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak revealed that Trump’s support came with strings attached: Israel had agreed to a $4 billion cut in annual U.S. military aid. The revelation sent shockwaves through the political landscape.

Consequently, we are entering a new period in which U.S.-Israel relations will be kept within reasonable bounds. Israel will continue to be a key factor in U.S. regional policies but will no longer be the sole determining factor. The U.S. will have to take its relations with other countries in the region into account and make decisions based on its own interests to the greatest extent possible.

Ultimately, the setbacks suffered by the Netanyahu and Trump camps in the elections have exposed the distortions in U.S.-Israel relations, making the existing dynamic unsustainable for both sides. It has become inevitable to reset and reshape these relations, which have become a burden for both parties. How the relationship between the two countries will evolve in this new era may depend on how Trump governs without congressional support and who leads Israel after Netanyahu. However, whatever happens, it no longer seems possible for U.S.-Israel relations to return to the way they were before.