In recent years, the global system has entered a critical phase characterized by a discernible tendency for conflicts to broaden. When we examine Türkiye's immediate surroundings, regional geopolitics increasingly reveal themselves as a convergence zone for multiple, simultaneous crises. These crises are significant dynamics that directly affect Türkiye's security environment. For this reason, the geopolitical environment surrounding Türkiye exerts intense security pressure, often described as a "belt of fire." At the same time, the limited number of actors capable of reducing tensions and balancing conflict dynamics further increases the risk of regional instability. This situation requires a reconsideration of the concept of deterrence.

Deterrence is often defined primarily in terms of military capacity and displays of power. However, the current international context shows that such an approach is insufficient. In recent years, Türkiye has introduced a different dimension to deterrence by framing it not only through military instruments but also through diplomatic capacity and crisis management mechanisms.

In this regard, proactive mediation has become an important component of Türkiye's deterrence strategy. Türkiye's mediation initiatives should therefore be interpreted not merely as goodwill-driven diplomatic efforts but also as a strategic instrument that prevents escalation and makes actors' cost-risk calculations more visible. Türkiye's deterrence strategy is not shaped solely by military power, but also by diplomatic mediation, crisis management and the production of regional stability.

In recent years, Türkiye's defense industry has made remarkable strides, establishing the country as a key player in deterrence. This growing capability has not only enhanced Türkiye's credibility but also fostered confidence in both allies and adversaries, significantly contributing to the nation's security framework. However, in the context of deterrence debates today, it is necessary to focus on another dimension as well: mediation. Türkiye's approach, developed through its mediation mechanisms, presents a noteworthy model. The concept of proactive mediation particularly shapes this model.

Deterrence, peace diplomacy

Since 2019, and particularly following the COVID-19 period, Turkish foreign policy has experienced an intense phase of geopolitical activity and strategic engagement. Between 2019 and 2025, Türkiye’s immediate geopolitical environment has been surrounded by multiple simultaneous crises, including the Russia-Ukraine war, protracted conflict and normalization attempts in Syria, the fragile political equilibrium in Libya, the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process in the South Caucasus, tensions in the Horn of Africa between Somalia and Ethiopia alongside the Sudanese civil war, and competition over maritime jurisdiction and energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean.

This complex environment has necessitated that Türkiye implement its foreign policy not only through traditional diplomatic tools but also through a broader strategic framework that incorporates security, diplomacy and strategic communication.

In this context, deterrence theory should not be interpreted merely as a military capability of threat or retaliation. Rather, deterrence functions as a strategic framework that operates through communication, credibility, institutional mechanisms and diplomacy. Therefore, deterrence can also be considered an instrument of stability production, influencing how actors calculate risks, costs and escalation dynamics in crisis environments.

Since 2020, Türkiye has integrated a new dimension into its understanding of deterrence. Ankara is now incorporating mediation and stability diplomacy as a layer of deterrence focused on preventing escalation. In this regard, proactive mediation has emerged as one of the most visible instruments in Turkish foreign policy practice. Acting with an awareness of the historical and political codes of its surrounding geopolitics, Türkiye has sought to highlight potential risks and costs to actors involved in conflict environments.

In this sense, diplomacy serves not only as a conflict-resolution mechanism but also as a strategic deterrence layer that prevents escalation. This approach has operated through several key mechanisms: Bringing actors to the same negotiation table and making cost-risk calculations visible (e.g., the Istanbul negotiations and diplomatic initiatives related to Somaliland); establishing concrete and verifiable mechanisms (such as the Black Sea Grain Corridor initiative); using legal and regime-based leverage to limit the scope of conflict (for example, the implementation of the Montreux Convention); breaking crisis-escalation spirals through confidence-building and technical security mechanisms (such as the NATO deconfliction mechanism in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea mine countermeasures cooperation) and by maintaining the diplomatic table despite provocations.

This reflects Türkiye’s strategic approach of maintaining diplomatic channels even amid heightened tension. Türkiye’s proactive mediation and stability diplomacy can be interpreted as an expanded application of classical deterrence theory that incorporates diplomacy, communication, and institutional engagement. In this framework, deterrence becomes not only a function of military power but also a multi-layered strategic instrument produced through diplomatic capacity, institutional mechanisms, and crisis-management tools.

Defense Industry, diplomacy

Today, the country's most notable approach, despite being surrounded by intense conflict and war, is its effort to preserve peace and maintain stability. Even in a geopolitical context where military tensions are rising, Türkiye prioritizes maintaining diplomatic channels and preventing the escalation of crises. In this sense, Ankara's approach reflects not only a strategy of security production but also a form of peace diplomacy aimed at maintaining regional stability. For this reason, the Turkish experience can be described as a "human-centred model of deterrence.”

Türkiye's growing capacity and influence in the defense industry have become increasingly significant within the global system. Advances in defense technologies, unmanned systems and domestic production capabilities have given Türkiye a new strategic dimension in deterrence. This development has strengthened not only Türkiye's military capabilities but also its position as a reliable security partner in international relations.

According to the 2026 report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Türkiye ranked 11th among the world's largest arms exporters during the 2021-2025 period. However, this development should not be interpreted merely as an increase in military power. Türkiye evaluates its defense industry capacity within a broader strategic framework that integrates peace and stability production.

In this respect, the defense industry becomes not only a tool of power but also an instrument of diplomacy and security cooperation. Particularly in the Afro-Eurasian region, defense industry partnerships have strengthened Türkiye's image as both a security partner and a stabilizing actor. Ongoing crises such as the tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States clearly demonstrate the depth of fractures within the global system. In such an environment, deterrence gains meaning only when combined with diplomatic mechanisms that support peace and stability. Otherwise, in a world where crises are increasingly widespread, deterrence that is not aligned with peace and stability ultimately results in a loss not only for states but for humanity as a whole.