The fact that the U.S. and Iran have suspended their mutual attacks may not mean the war is over. On the contrary, recent developments suggest the war is poised to enter a new phase. Ukraine may be the most notable player in this new phase. This is because a critical question arose following Ukraine’s targeting of an Iran-linked vessel in the Caspian Sea on July 25: Is Ukraine becoming the second front in the war against Iran?

In the second phase that began after the 40-Day War, U.S. attacks against Iran continued in 13 waves. Iran responded with attacks on targets in the region. However, the sustainability of high-intensity conventional warfare is becoming increasingly difficult for the U.S. In particular, reports that strategic ammunition stocks are nearing critical levels are one of the key factors that could explain why Washington wanted to pause the conflict. But the real question is: Will the same war continue using the same methods? This is where Ukraine enters the equation.

Ukraine’s targeting of an Iran-linked vessel in the Caspian Sea is no ordinary development. Ukraine and Iran do not share a common border. The two countries’ militaries are not facing off in the traditional sense. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s attack on an Iran-linked target in the Caspian Sea indicates that the gap between the Ukraine-Russia war and the Iran-centered conflict is gradually closing. Iran’s strong reaction to the attack and its message that it will retaliate against Ukraine make this possibility even more significant. Because if Iran truly begins to face attacks originating from Ukraine, a new military problem will arise for Tehran. Iran will be forced to divert forces to the north.

If the U.S. and Israel’s military pressure on Iran from a single front becomes both costly and increasingly difficult in terms of ammunition, putting pressure on Iran from another direction could serve as a significant force multiplier. If Ukraine enters the fray, Iran may be forced to shift a portion of its air defense systems, missile forces, drones and intelligence capabilities to the north and the Caspian Basin. This could reduce Iran’s force concentration on other fronts against the U.S. and Israel. Therefore, in such a scenario, the expectation is not that Ukraine will defeat Iran. Rather, it is to force Iran into a two-front struggle. This is the fundamental military calculation that makes Ukraine significant in the war against Iran.

Meetings in Washington

Immediately following the attack in the Caspian Sea on July 28, there was notable diplomatic activity in Washington. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy were both in Washington that same day, and U.S. President Donald Trump met with each leader separately. The meeting with Netanyahu centered on Iran. The discussions focused on diplomacy, maintaining pressure on Iran, and evaluating various options, including a renewed military strike. The stated agenda for the meeting with Zelenskyy, however, was not Iran, but rather the strengthening of Ukraine’s military capabilities. And significant developments are unfolding here.

On July 22, during his meeting with Matthew Whitaker, the U.S. permanent representative to NATO, Zelenskyy discussed the implementation of production licenses for Patriot interceptor missiles and the U.S.-Ukraine "drone deal.”

A day later, on July 23, a meeting was held with a delegation from Raytheon, a defense contractor and business unit of RTX Corporation. Once again, the critical issue of the joint production of Patriot missiles was on the table. Subsequently, the implementation of Patriot production licenses was also raised during the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.

This process should not be interpreted merely as the provision of a few more air defense systems to Ukraine. A more structural transformation is underway. The goal is to integrate Ukraine into the production chain of American air defense technology and, at the same time, to integrate the drone technology Ukraine has developed throughout the war into the U.S. defense ecosystem. On one side, the Patriot missiles, on the other, drone technology. In other words, Ukraine’s capabilities in both defense and asymmetric attack are being enhanced.

Why Ukraine?

Because Ukraine is no longer just a country engaged in conventional front-line warfare. The ongoing war with Russia has given Ukraine significant experience in sabotage, intelligence operations, long-range drone attacks, and striking strategic targets deep within enemy territory. Operation "Spider Web” was one of the most striking examples of this. Ukraine has demonstrated that it can reach targets thousands of kilometers deep inside Russian territory. Therefore, the lack of a land border between Ukraine and Iran is not an insurmountable military obstacle.

Indeed, the attack in the Caspian Sea was one of the first concrete indications of this. A potential Ukraine-Iran war would not be a conventional front-line war involving tanks facing off against each other. Drone attacks, long-range missiles, acts of sabotage, intelligence operations and covert activities would take center stage, and that is precisely the form of warfare in which Ukraine has specialized in recent years. In this scenario, Ukraine could become a significant force multiplier.

However, this would have a very dangerous consequence. If Ukraine were to become a second front against Iran, the two major theaters of war, which today appear separate, could become interconnected. On one side is the Russia-Ukraine war, on the other is the Iran-centered conflict in the Middle East, and between them lie the Black Sea, the Caucasus and the Caspian Sea.

Such a development could shift the geography of the conflict from the Middle East to a much bigger security zone. This is where the real danger lies for Türkiye, as it is situated at the center of this new geopolitical arc.