Experts do not expect resolution from Geneva talks on Syria
The Syrian peace talks between representatives of Syrian President Bashar Assad and internationally recognized opposition is starting today at the U.N.'s Palais des Nations in Geneva. The talks aim to end the five-year civil war in Syria that has resulted more than 300,000 deaths and millions of refugees. They were supposed to start on Monday, but were postponed due to Russia's failed efforts to include the Syrian PKK affiliate Democratic Union Party (PYD) in the talks. Even though issue of representation seems to be solved for now, both representatives from the Assad regime and even opposition do not expect the Geneva talks to result in a resolution to end the ongoing bloodshed in Syria.Commenting on this issue, director of the Ankara-based think tank Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM) Associated Professor Şaban Kardaş said that the Geneva talks are supposed to a follow on the reconciliation reached in October at the Vienna talks, and that the political transition framework formula established during the Geneva I talks led to United Nation's Resolution 2254. He anticipates that trust-building measures not being implemented and Russia's entrances into the theater bombing residential areas have already overturned the parameters of a possible political solution. He said that with the U.S. not willing to get involved on the ground in Syria, it allows efficiency to Russia's arguments on the field. "This means pressure on opposition will continue and that there will be an expectation for them to surrender. As the opposition will not accept surrendering, expecting a solution from this round of Geneva talks is difficult at this point," Kardaş said.
According the Foundation for Political Economic and Social Research (SETA) Foreign Policy Director Dr. Ufuk Ulutaş, the Geneva talks have transformed into a process of eliminating the Syrian opposition. "Russia is trying to define those who will be placed on the Syrian regime side while it tries to define who will be on the other side of the table as well. This means Russia is aiming to determine those on the opposition. [Moscow] has insisted it is the PYD, but that hasn't happened yet, but even now there are opposition delegates who can be described as Russia's organic opposition of Russia. Worst of all, the U.S. and Russia currently meet at the same ground and completely think alike. Thus, when we combine the two matters, the upcoming Geneva meeting having any benefit for the Syrian people is highly unlikely," Ulutaş said.
The director of the Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE), Professor Dr. Birol Akgün, asserted that as much as the attitude of the Assad regime and opposition matters, the attitudes of the U.S. and Russia will actively determine the future of the talks. "I believe that reaching a cease-fire and protecting the hopes for a possible transition period is highly significant for the U.S. and Russia. I believe that the big powers will do whatever they can do prevent this process from being unsuccessful," he said.
Underlining that both the U.S. and Russia will display serious efforts this time around to not have an unsuccessful image from the Geneva negotiations, Akgün also said the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 and realizing the reconciliation agreement reached in Venice is not expected.
Director of Global Political Trends Center (GPOT), Professor Dr. Mensur Akgün, underlined the difficulties of the peace process and said that peace meetings are always important even though they do not always produce a result. "Look at the Cyprus, there is no close combat for over 40 years, but there is also no solution yet. Thus, it is not possible to reach a solution for these kinds of problems every time," he said, while stressing the importance of turning the Syrian civil war into limited problem to minimize the deaths and other destructive effects on the region.
He said that there are a great number of internal and external factors that influence the Syrian civil war and it is difficult to reach a common point, and added that the issue became much more complex after Russia's military intervention. "Under these circumstances, even the Geneva meetings should be considered a miracle, [but] nobody expects another miracle, which would a resolution of the conflict in a short time," he said. He said that Turkey should support the Geneva talks without any reservation "[b]ecause the continuation of this war harms Turkey the most. For instance, nobody is satisfied with the refugees issue even though Turkey has done whatever it could. Additionally, Syria should be calmer in order to concentrate an efficient fight against DAESH," he said.
According the Foundation for Political Economic and Social Research (SETA) Foreign Policy Director Dr. Ufuk Ulutaş, the Geneva talks have transformed into a process of eliminating the Syrian opposition. "Russia is trying to define those who will be placed on the Syrian regime side while it tries to define who will be on the other side of the table as well. This means Russia is aiming to determine those on the opposition. [Moscow] has insisted it is the PYD, but that hasn't happened yet, but even now there are opposition delegates who can be described as Russia's organic opposition of Russia. Worst of all, the U.S. and Russia currently meet at the same ground and completely think alike. Thus, when we combine the two matters, the upcoming Geneva meeting having any benefit for the Syrian people is highly unlikely," Ulutaş said.
The director of the Institute of Strategic Thinking (SDE), Professor Dr. Birol Akgün, asserted that as much as the attitude of the Assad regime and opposition matters, the attitudes of the U.S. and Russia will actively determine the future of the talks. "I believe that reaching a cease-fire and protecting the hopes for a possible transition period is highly significant for the U.S. and Russia. I believe that the big powers will do whatever they can do prevent this process from being unsuccessful," he said.
Underlining that both the U.S. and Russia will display serious efforts this time around to not have an unsuccessful image from the Geneva negotiations, Akgün also said the implementation of U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 and realizing the reconciliation agreement reached in Venice is not expected.
Director of Global Political Trends Center (GPOT), Professor Dr. Mensur Akgün, underlined the difficulties of the peace process and said that peace meetings are always important even though they do not always produce a result. "Look at the Cyprus, there is no close combat for over 40 years, but there is also no solution yet. Thus, it is not possible to reach a solution for these kinds of problems every time," he said, while stressing the importance of turning the Syrian civil war into limited problem to minimize the deaths and other destructive effects on the region.
He said that there are a great number of internal and external factors that influence the Syrian civil war and it is difficult to reach a common point, and added that the issue became much more complex after Russia's military intervention. "Under these circumstances, even the Geneva meetings should be considered a miracle, [but] nobody expects another miracle, which would a resolution of the conflict in a short time," he said. He said that Turkey should support the Geneva talks without any reservation "[b]ecause the continuation of this war harms Turkey the most. For instance, nobody is satisfied with the refugees issue even though Turkey has done whatever it could. Additionally, Syria should be calmer in order to concentrate an efficient fight against DAESH," he said.