The already grim humanitarian situation in Syria is becoming worse and millions of Syrians may not survive the winter if aid deliveries from Türkiye to the opposition-held northwest regions aren’t renewed next month, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in a new report.
Guterres said in the report to the U.N. Security Council obtained Monday by the Associated Press (AP) that cross-border aid to the northwest remains "an indispensable part" of humanitarian operations to reach all people in need.
Deliveries across conflict lines within the country, which Syria's close ally Russia has pressed for, have increased. Still, Guterres said they cannot substitute for "the size or scope of the massive cross-border U.N. operation."
Russia has also pushed for early recovery projects in Syria, and Guterres said at least 374 had taken place throughout the country since January, directly benefitting over 665,000 people. Still, he said: "further expansion" is needed.
The council asked for a report from the secretary-general on Syria's humanitarian needs in the July resolution that extended the delivery of food, medicine and other desperately needed aid through the Bab al-Hawa crossing from Türkiye to northwest Idlib for six months until Jan. 10.
Russia has sought to reduce cross-border aid to eliminate it.
In July 2020, China and Russia vetoed a U.N. resolution that would have maintained two border crossing points from Türkiye for humanitarian aid to northwest Idlib. Days later, the delivery of aid was reduced to just the Bab al-Hawa crossing for a year, as they demanded.
In July 2021, Russia pressed for a further reduction, finally agreeing to a six-month extension with another six-month contingent on a report from the secretary-general on progress in cross-line deliveries. But in July this year, Russia insisted on U.N. authorization for just six months.
Enormously appealing for Bab al-Hawa to remain open for U.N. assistance, Guterres warned that "a halt to cross-border deliveries amid winter months would risk leaving millions of Syrians without the aid needed to endure harsh weather conditions."
He said cross-border aid "remains a lifeline for millions of people," and Security Council renewal of the resolution authorizing continued deliveries is not only "critical" but "a moral and humanitarian imperative."
According to his report, 7.5 million people live in areas not under Syrian regime control, mainly across the north, with a small number in Rukban in the southeast, and 6.8 million of them need humanitarian assistance due to hostilities and widespread displacement.
More broadly, Guterres said, "After 11 years of conflict, the country still has the largest number of internally displaced people in the world, drives one of the world’s largest refugee crises, and the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate." He said that the already dire situation is compounded by cholera spreading across the country, the COVID-19 pandemic, a worsening economy and climate, and other human-caused shocks.
"As a result of these challenges, in 2023, 15.3 million people, out of a total population of 22.1 million, are estimated to require humanitarian assistance, compared to 14.6 million people in 2022," the secretary-general said. "This is the highest level of people in need since the start of the conflict" in 2011.
Data on humanitarian needs collected by the U.N. and its partners from over 34,000 households in July and August found that 85% of households were unable or insufficiently to meet their basic needs, an increase from 75% in 2021, according to the report.
The report also cited a 48% increase in severe acute malnutrition among children aged 6 months to 5 years in 2022 compared to 2021. At least 25% of children under the age of 5 in some districts are stunted. At the risk of irreversible damage to their physical and cognitive development and "repeated infection, developmental delay, disabilities, and death," it said.
Guterres said winter weather is expected to worsen the situation for millions of Syrians. Among the most vulnerable are those in the northwest who rely on cross-border aid deliveries and face declining humanitarian conditions due to ongoing hostilities and "a deepening economic crisis."
"Today, in the northwest, 4.1 million people, 80% of them women and children, out of a population of 4.6 million, are estimated to need humanitarian assistance to meet their most basic needs," he said.
During talks with Russia earlier on Saturday, Türkiye, home to the highest number of Syrian refugees, also stressed the need to extend the vital border crossing into Syria for continued access to aid, a Foreign Ministry statement read.
The long-running operation has been in place since 2014.
According to the U.N.’s situation report published this month, in November, 693 trucks loaded with food, cholera kits, shelter items and other aid crossed from Türkiye to northwestern Syria, reaching 2.7 million people on average.
"Today, 44% of the population in northwestern Syria cannot afford bread. As of September 2022, the average price of a WFP (World Food Programme) food basket, comprising bread, vegetable oil, sugar, lentils and rice, has increased nearly fourfold in two years. Over the last seven months alone, the price of vegetable oil and wheat flour has increased by over 40% because of the impacts of the crisis in Ukraine," the U.N. said.
For years, the Assad regime has ignored the needs and safety of the Syrian people, only eyeing further gains of territory and crushing the opposition. With this aim, the government has bombed vital facilities like schools, hospitals and residential areas for years, causing the displacement of almost half of the country’s population while adopting policies to make their lives even more miserable.