Imamoğlu corruption case may further derail Turkish opposition
Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (L) and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu wave to reporters after a meeting, in the capital Ankara, Türkiye, June 14, 2023. (AA Photo)

A political ban may loom for Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu amid a corruption trial, at a time of growing calls for the resignation of CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu following his election defeat and the rise of the mayor as his potential successor



Once a trendy figure in the opposition, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu has his chances to unite or run it dimming. Still reeling from election defeat to President Tayyip Erdoğan, the Turkish opposition suffered a fresh blow to its renewal prospects on Thursday as a court began hearing a case against one of its brightest stars on a tender-rigging charge.

The case against Imamoğlu began less than three weeks after Erdoğan defied poll predictions and the hopes of his opponents to win a presidential runoff vote.

Imamoğlu faces a potential jail sentence of three to seven years and a political ban if found guilty in the latest case, having already been sentenced to over two years in prison in 2022 for insulting public officials. He also faces a political ban if that ruling is upheld. His case on Thursday was adjourned to Nov. 30, and the trial is set to hang over the opposition as it tries to regroup and rally disheartened voters ahead of local elections in March 2024.

At the same time, calls have grown louder for the opposition's defeated presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to resign as chairperson of Imamoğlu's Republican People's Party (CHP). While Kılıçdaroğlu has refused to openly say whether he will stand as a candidate in the party congress in the autumn, he appeared to suggest that he may step down after 13 years at the helm of Türkiye's oldest party.

"I will open the way fully for change, don't you worry," he told his party's parliamentary group on Tuesday. "It is the captain's duty to take the ship safely back to port," Kılıçdaroğlu added, suggesting he could keep the reins for a longer while.

Many see Imamoğlu, who has called for "total change," as the strongest contender to replace Kılıçdaroğlu. "We can't make the mistake of doing the same things and continuing on our path," Imamoğlu told reporters last week, citing the CHP's losses in the previous three presidential elections. But others are also vying for Kılıçdaroğlu's position, and the decision will depend on who can rally more support within the party.

Tanju Tosun, a political science professor at Ege University, said the CHP's internal politics could overshadow its preparations for next year's local elections. "If the internal rifts within the CHP continue until local elections, candidates from the ruling (Justice and Development Party, or AK Party) could defeat opposition candidates in many cities," he said.

Imamoğlu shot to the center of domestic politics after he won the 2019 mayoral elections in Istanbul, delivering the AK Party their biggest defeat since they came to power in 2002 in a city where Erdoğan rose to prominence as a successful mayor in the 1990s.

As Imamoğlu's five-year term draws to a close, the CHP and other opposition parties it cooperated within 2019 to secure the victory in Istanbul will also need to decide whether they will unite again for local elections scheduled for March 2024.

Last month's defeat, including a weaker-than-expected showing for the center nationalist Good Party (IP) in parliamentary elections, complicates the prospects of another partnership.

Reports have suggested that the IP may request the CHP support its candidate in some metropolitan cities, like in 2019, but in CHP strongholds this time. In 2019, the CHP endorsed IP candidates in the western towns of Balıkesir and Denizli, but they failed to beat AK Party candidates then.

The Green Left Party's (YSP) role remains critical for victory in local elections after it helped the CHP claim Istanbul and Ankara in 2019 by not fielding candidates. But party officials have suggested they may not follow that strategy next year after they suffered a drop in their votes in last month's elections.

"The YSP may field candidates (in Istanbul and Ankara)," Meral Danış Beştaş, a senior YSP official, said. "We've received tough criticism from our party base for not fielding a candidate in the presidential elections."