The six-party opposition coalition witnessed a crushingly disappointing outcome during the May 14 Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections, thereby raising a risk of dissolution and further disarray among the diverse party leaders.

A critical run-off takes place on May 28 after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan only narrowly missed an absolute majority, with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu – presidential candidate of the main opposition parties – taking 45% of the vote share. However, the first few days following the election have shown that the opposition lacked a concrete strategy for the second round.

"In terms of putting forth a strategy, the opposition had already begun failing before the first round. It was impossible to lay out a clear strategy if we consider the communication blocks following the intra-Table for Six crisis," said Şuay Nilhan Açıkalın, associate professor at Ankara Hacı Bayram Veli University.

Açıkalın underlined that the opposition, without any concrete strategy apart from being against Erdoğan and the presidential system, meant "instability and unpredictability" for voters.

Being asked whether Kılıçdaroğlu could withdraw before the second round due to the unexpectedly poor performance in the elections, Açıkalın said that she thought of it being highly unlikely.

"If we consider the Akşener crisis, the disputes around names included in the Republican People's Party (CHP) lists and later incidents, it can be said that it is highly likely the opposition will splinter following the elections. Moreover, a renewal process may occur not only among the six parties but also within these political parties," she added.

Misleading polls

Kılıçdaroğlu appeared ahead in opinion polls before Sunday's first round. But now political analysts see little chance of Erdoğan being beaten in the second round, especially because his alliance won a separate parliamentary election.

"The voter base had been consolidated with polls aimed for perception in favor of Kılıçdaroğlu," Hilmi Daşdemir, head of Optimar research company told Daily Sabah. "However, as the perception and surveys turned out to be untrue, besides the vote gap between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu, these voters may not even go to the polls in the second round."

Around 64,190,651 voters were registered for the May 14 elections, yet only 54,919,932 of them went to the ballot boxes while 1,029,000 votes were deemed invalid. Questions arose among the public about whether these votes, besides those of Sinan Oğan, could tilt the balance in favor of the other candidate.

"I believe that the tendency of those not going to the polls in the first round will continue substantially. Furthermore, the rate of not voting will increase in the second round," Daşdemir pointed out.

"The candidate that manages to convince his voter base to go to the ballot box will win the election," he added, indicating that the prospect of this seems unlikely in the case of the opposition, taking into consideration the disappointment that resulted in the first round.

Açıkalın added that the fact that the CHP’s Istanbul and Ankara mayors announced their candidate leads in the elections as vote counts were just coming in on election night, and the uncertainty of voting data were other factors that led to distrust among the public.

"The tensions and baseless claims during their press conference showed that the opposition is not ready yet both in individual terms as well as on institutional level," she highlighted.

"The polls of the opposition caused it to believe it had already won the elections weeks before May 14. Additionally, the fact that social media users are to a large extent opposition voters led to the illusion that the whole of Türkiye reflected similar sentiments, Açıkalın said.

Public sentiment

On the other side, both Açıkalın and Daşdemir emphasized that the failure of the opposition has been rooted mainly in being unable to read and understand the Turkish public.

"We once again witness that the West and the opposition attempts, to read Türkiye from a Western perspective, is stumbling," Daşdemir said, citing the example of the opposition partnering with the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), accused of having links with the PKK. "Having the support of terrorist organizations will grant you victory, but hand you defeat among Turkish masses."

Daşdemir added that Kılıçdaroğlu will have a hard time preserving his seat as chairperson of the CHP following the May elections.

"They build a political system without understanding the Turkish masses – and the result was a fiasco."

Açıkalın similarly said that while many reasons added to the opposition's failure, the most important one was being unable to understand the reflexes of the people and presenting a picture far from reality.

"In fact, this is not a phenomenon unique to the 2023 elections, but represents an opposition that is far from the Turkish public and tries to view it through the West’s motives and approaches."

Prior to the election results, Western media and officials had spurred anti-Erdoğan rhetoric and openly voiced support for Kılıçdaroğlu. One example was The Economist conveniently ignoring the democratic process in Türkiye and urging Turks to "kick Erdoğan out" on May 14. Nonetheless, the tune changed rather quickly.

Barely hours after it began to become clear Türkiye’s elections would stretch into a runoff, Western media outlets backpedaled in their biased rhetoric toward incumbent Erdoğan whose polling success in the first round has been broadly described as a "surprise."

Mentioning prospects for the runoff vote on May 28, Açıkalın said that Erdoğan enters the second round stronger as he delivered the message, "Everyone to the polls for great Türkiye's victory," and "no one loses when we win."

On the other hand, a vital factor for the second round is a third player that emerged as a possible kingmaker. Sinan Oğan, a nationalist candidate, picked up 5% of the vote and his support could be crucial in the second round.

He is a secular nationalist, which separates him from conservatives who have rallied around Erdoğan.

But he has also campaigned strongly against terrorism. Oğan is expected to announce which side he will be back on Friday.

Açıkalın however warned that his voter base might not follow his decision. "This discourse that his voters would vote for whomever he chooses personally is too assertive and a communication error," she said and elaborated that Turkish voters do not give credence to impositions.

"We will see whom he personally chooses, yet it is difficult to say that the choice of his 5% voter base will be the same."