Disunity among Türkiye's opposition parties has boosted President Tayyip Erdoğan's hopes that his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) can regain control of Istanbul in this month's municipal elections, pollsters say, following his victory in last year's presidential vote.
The outcome of the March 31 election in Istanbul, Türkiye's largest city, is seen as key in deciding the political fate of its mayor, Ekrem Imamoğlu, 52, long touted as a potential leader of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and possibly a future president.
Five years ago, Imamoğlu and the CHP dealt the AK Party a blow in municipal elections by narrowly winning control of Istanbul, the president's home city, and the capital Ankara, after years of rule by the AK Party. But Erdoğan, who has dominated Turkish politics for nearly a quarter of a century, beat off a strong opposition challenge last May to win reelection as president, while the AK Party and its allies secured another parliamentary majority.
The alliance that helped propel Imamoğlu to victory in Istanbul has since collapsed, and his nationalist and pro-PKK allies are fielding their own candidates this month.
Recent polls point to a close race, with pollsters MAK this week showing 41.5% support for Imamoğlu, just 1.5 points ahead of AK Party candidate Murat Kurum. But, according to pollster Murat Gezici, Kurum had 44.1% support, ahead of Imamoğlu's 43.5%.
"The race is neck-and-neck, on a knife's edge," Özer Sencar, chairperson of pollsters Metropoll, told Reuters, emphasizing the importance of Istanbul for future national politics. "If Ekrem Imamoğlu wins the election in Istanbul and this election is not canceled by objections in some way, he will become the president in 2028," he said. Imamoğlu has implied his presidential ambitions in the past but it is CHP's new leader Özgür Özel who is apparently more enthusiastic to see him as the next president. In remarks to a pro-CHP broadcaster earlier this week, Özel said they needed to "change this regime through Imamoğlu." Özel told Halk TV that he would do "all he could" for the presidential candidacy of Imamoğlu if the latter appears ahead in preelection polls before 2028.
Fragmented opposition
Imamoğlu's hopes in Istanbul have been dented by the decision of the pro-PKK Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), a successor of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and the nationalist Good Party (IP), whose voters supported him in 2019, to field their own candidates. Sencar said the damage that both parties can do to Imamoğlu must be taken seriously. Metropoll's latest survey showed support for Imamoglu among voters (of YSP) had declined to 32% last month from 35% in January. Support among IP voters fell to 45% from 64%.
Discord within the CHP itself, which elected Özel as its new leader last November, has added to Imamoğlu's challenge, with many in the party unhappy with the choice of election candidates.
"The biggest risk for the opposition in Istanbul is that it is becoming more fragmented than ever," said Ertan Aksoy, head of Aksoy Research, whose survey conducted 40 days ago showed Imamoğlu to be 3-4 percentage points ahead of his AK Party rival.
Imamoğlu has accused the central government of hampering his delivery of services in Istanbul since 2019. Campaigning is now focused on solving traffic problems in a city of 16 million and the need for urban transformation, given earthquake risks in the region. In election campaigning, Erdoğan has made the opposition's difficulties the focus of his speeches. "No change has been able to cure the political exhaustion of the CHP. Everyone who comes and goes just makes things worse," he told a rally this week.