The race has begun in Turkish politics for this year’s most critical election. In March, 36 parties will vie for seats in municipal elections in 81 provinces.

A test of popular support for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) and the opposition in the aftermath of last May’s general election, municipal elections will show whether the opposition may regain momentum and if the AK Party is still popular despite challenges.

Some parties rushed to declare their candidates, while others, like the AK Party, were in no hurry. In most municipal elections, the ruling party invariably wins a majority of mayoral seats or, at least, the majority in municipal assembly. So, the AK Party appears ahead of its rivals, though the 2019 elections proved otherwise. At the height of its popularity, the party lost seats in big cities, namely Istanbul and the capital Ankara. This time, it pursues a meticulous process to pick the candidates.

Defeated by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in last year’s general election, the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) seeks to recoup losses in the municipal elections in March. The party is set to announce more candidates on Thursday, but media reports say the candidate for Izmir is still uncertain.

Izmir is a stronghold of the CHP, but incumbent Mayor Tunç Soyer will likely not be nominated again. The CHP was confident in the incumbent mayors of Istanbul and Ankara and renominated them, but Soyer reportedly fell in opinion polls. The candidate for Antalya, another big city where the CHP has winning potential, is also uncertain. Media reports based on anonymous sources from the CHP point out that the party may field Filiz Ceritoğlu Sengel, mayor of Izmir’s Selçuk district, for the top seat in Izmir, Türkiye’s third largest province. If nominated and successful, Sengel will be Izmir’s first female mayor. Since 2003, the city has been ruled by CHP mayors, and Soyer won the 2019 elections.

The AK Party is determined to win Izmir this time, something it has failed to do repeatedly despite its impressive record of wins in other elections for more than two decades. The party hopes Izmir voters can stop the CHP streak amid criticism of Soyer’s record, namely, failures in improving infrastructure and wasting the municipality’s budget on billions of Turkish liras paid for public concerts.

The CHP has so far announced 353 candidates, including those for mayor’s seats in seven big cities. The party’s assembly will convene again on Thursday to pick new candidates under the leadership of Özgür Özel, the chairperson who succeeded Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu last November after the latter’s defeat by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the AK Party in the May elections. Media reports say Thursday’s meeting will result in the announcement of the candidates for some districts of Istanbul and candidates for the provinces of Aydın, Mersin, Adana and Hatay.

Ekrem Imamoğlu, nominated again for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) seat, will be introduced at a major event on Friday by the CHP. A supporter of Özel’s race against Kılıçdaroğlu, Imamoğlu was a rising star before the general elections. He was even considered as a presidential candidate by the opposition before Kılıçdaroğlu stepped in. Imamoğlu’s unprecedented win in the 2019 elections was largely due to support from other opposition parties. It remains to be seen whether the same support will resurface in the March elections, especially after the six-party opposition bloc of the general elections parted ways after their defeat. Imamoğlu’s less-than-impressive record since 2019 also slims his chances of another victory, but the AK Party will still need a high-profile name against the mayor.

The AK Party is expected to announce its candidate for Istanbul in mid-January. President Erdoğan, who devotes most of his time nowadays to work to determine candidates with fellow AK Party members, was scheduled to convene the party’s committee to determine candidates in Istanbul later on Wednesday. The party has already held several elections among its members to learn the candidates its members favor for most cities.

The Good Party (IP), which was the main ally of the CHP in the general elections, is pursuing a risky path: An election without an alliance. The party rapidly lost support among its members when it severed ties with the CHP following the May defeat and the insistence of Chairperson Meral Akşener not to endorse the CHP in the municipal elections. Many prominent IP lawmakers and other top names resigned in the last months of 2023. But Akşener and those loyal to her in the upper echelons of the party charted their path to the elections and announced candidates in more than 100 municipalities. But like most other parties, it has shied away from announcing candidates for Ankara and Istanbul.