As Türkiye nears critical local elections at the end of this month, in which parties will race to make gains in cities and districts, the country's potent youth will again play a strategic role.
Local elections are slated for March 31, and Türkiye's main parties have already entered fierce competition. Much like in general elections, the young population is a paradigm shifter, and political parties have been adapting their campaigns according to this knowledge. Social media and using Gen Z-friendly language while addressing the youth's main concerns in daily life have become prominent during rallies and speeches.
Around half of the Turkish population is under 30, yet the country's youth boasts a large variety of socio-economic, religious, ethnic and educational differences. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the highest number of young people who will vote for the first time are mostly concentrated in the southeastern provinces, with Hakkari, Şırnak and Siirt topping the list. In contrast, western provinces have a lower ratio of young population. The country's youth is far from a homogenous structure and thus difficult to generalize. That is why diverse factors are influential in their voting behavior.
One way to analyze this is to divide young voters into big and small cities. The youth in big cities is primarily concerned with more general issues. Thus, factors such as the economy, transportation, earthquake resistance and realistic promises and solutions to these will be important in their voting tendencies. It is a known fact that the economic situation, future anxiety, unemployment and uncertainty have become the main agenda of the youth in the past years as inflation remains high and consumer prices have gone up while the lira has lost significant value. The candidate who can convince the youth of real solutions, especially Istanbul's traffic and urban transformation challenges and inadequate transportation in Ankara, will win the upper hand. Conversely, in smaller cities, young voters associate themselves more with the candidate's image and character, background and relation to the local community. Continuing to vote for the candidate preferred by parents or the family is often the choice of young voters in small cities.
Other criteria increasingly voiced by the new generation are "younger candidates who can better understand today's needs," "the candidate's education level" and "experience in providing services."
The new generation is also concerned about newer phenomena such as climate, nature, technology and animal issues, while human rights and social justice continue to be decisive.
In general, the youth in Türkiye feels closer to the main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP), due to their statements of greater freedoms and seeming orientation toward the West. However, the CHP's failure to reach its voters in the general elections last year and its entering a tumultuous era where a change in chairmanship occurred damaged the party's trust. While the new leader, Özgür Özel, has not managed to shine as the new leader CHP voters hoped for, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu still stands out as a strong candidate and is seen as a potential future leader for the main opposition. The ruling Justice and Development Party's current strategy is to use the disarray within the CHP, arguing that the party would considerably fail in giving services and undertake the huge duties Türkiye's cities need right now, such as transforming urban areas into earthquake-resistant places. Yet, more must be done to reach the younger generations.
The last local elections were held on March 31, 2019. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's AK Party won 39 out of 81 provinces, while the CHP won 21 provinces, including the capital, Ankara, and the metropolis of Istanbul.
Social media and Gen Z
Although youth seem apolitical, they still believe that politics and politicians are the answer to the country's woes. They are just distancing themselves from old politics, awaiting new approaches and solutions.
Besides traditional rallies and election banners, the opinion of young voters is shaped increasingly by social media. According to the Reuters Institute's 2022 Digital News Report, which was attended by 93,000 people in 46 countries, including Türkiye, young people aged 18-24 generally consume news through social media platforms, and only 23% use news applications or websites. Thus, social media has already taken its place ahead of traditional television. YouTube, Instagram and TikTok become prominent in following what is going on in the country. The youth perceives these as platforms that provide a more democratic area where they can discuss everything openly and show solidarity. The tweets, videos and speeches of candidates on these social media platforms have a far greater impact.
According to a poll of ORC last month, Gen Z voters were asked which deputies of Parliament were most influential, and their answers were respectively Mustafa Sarıgül, known for his short and funny videos criticizing current issues, Ceyda Bölünmez Çankırı, AK Party Konak candidate followed by the CHP's Malatya candidate Veli Ağbaba. Ağbaba and Sarıgül boast around 1 million followers on Twitter.
Looking at the Twitter followers of the main contestants, it can be seen that Imamoğlu has 8.9 million followers. In contrast, AK Party's candidate Murat Kurum has less than 1 million and in Ankara, CHP's Mansur Yavaş boasts 7.5 million compared to around 127,000 followers of Turgut Altınok. Still, one has to bear in mind that the CHP and left voters usually use Twitter more than conservative voters and a correlation between the number of followers and the number of votes is inaccurate.
It is not possible to categorize Türkiye's youth as a whole and determine the criteria that will affect their voting behavior. Yet the new generation has new concerns in a changing world and expects new mayors to answer the challenges that Türkiye's provinces will face in the upcoming future – be it the outcomes of climate change, pandemics, earthquakes or new vital technologies.