The Central African country of Gabon has become the latest victim of a rising trend of military coups in the region. If successful, the Wednesday's coup in Gabon would be the eighth in West and Central Africa in just three years.

The recent wave of military intervention in civil rule and coups started in Mali in 2021, before hitting Guinea and Sudan the same year. A year later, Burkina Faso fell and was followed by a similar takeover in Niger this July.

When a group of military officers claimed to have overthrown President Ali Bongo – right after a national election – it practically ended his family’s 55-year dynasty, backed by Gabon’s former colonial ruler, France.

France, although at the receiving end, appears to be the common thread with all the military coups mentioned above taking place in its former colonies, where Paris has long maintained a strong military, business and political presence as part of a discredited post-colonial policy known as "Francafrique."

However, there is seemingly a fundamental difference between the coup in Gabon and others, particularly ones in Western Africa and the Sahel region.

According to Tunç Demirtaş, a researcher at the Ankara-based Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), "Although they (the recent coups) seem to have created a ‘coup ecosystem’ in the continent, the development in Gabon should not be considered the same as the one in Niger."

"The Gabonese military intervention emerged due to political turmoil, while security concerns and poor governance drove the interventions in Niger and some other countries," wrote Demirtaş in a recent piece for SETA.

Huriye Yıldırım Çınar, co-director of the Istanbul-based TASAM African Institute, pointed out: "Despite being recognized as one of the top five richest countries in Africa with a GDP per capita of $6,440, a significant portion of its population struggles with deep poverty. This is largely attributed to the extensive corruption of the ‘Bongo Dynasty’ and its close associates."

As a member of OPEC, Gabon produces approximately 181,000 barrels of crude oil a day while French uranium mining companies operate in the country due to its uranium resources.

Ali Bongo's continued rule in Gabon since 2009 has failed to provide the prosperity and stability that the Gabonese people had hoped for, according to Çınar.

There has also been reports of political tension between the Gabonese closely related ruling elite.

For instance, military coup leader Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema is President Bongo's cousin. An accomplished military officer, Nguema was assigned to diplomatic posts in Morocco and Senegal for approximately 10 years after Bongo came to power in 2009.

Some sources interpret these assignments as a form of exile due to disagreements between Bongo and Nguema. Nevertheless, in 2019, Nguema was recalled to Gabon and appointed the head of the Republican Guard.

It is known that Nguema has amassed significant wealth, particularly abroad, including in the United States, Morocco, and France, said Çınar.

Foreign links

The coup has been condemned by most foreign powers, including Gabon’s former colonial ruler France, as well as Russia, which has been alleged to have links with some of the recent coups on the continent.

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova expressed concerns, saying: "Moscow received reports of a sharp deterioration in internal developments in our friendly African country. We continue to closely monitor the situation and hope for a speedy return to stability."

Çınar also dismissed any link between the coup and a third country, but rather pointed fingers at the Paris-backed ruling elite while also holding colonial power France responsible.

"Firstly, due to recent coups in Sub-Saharan Africa and France's diminishing influence in the region, it could be argued that France might be behind the developments in Gabon."

"While these coups are claimed to be against local political elites who are guarantors of French interests, the Paris government is aware that its interests in Gabon are threatened by the Bongo regime."

"Protests against Ali Bongo in recent years have jeopardized French presence in the country, and anti-French sentiment has been on the rise. As a result, around 450 French troops are stationed in the country to ensure security. French officials may believe that Bongo is unlikely to relinquish power."

She added that the administration of Emmanuel Macron has recognized that one of the main factors eroding France's power and prestige in Africa in recent years is the backlash from young African populations against its long-standing relationships with aging political elites.

"Therefore, the Macron administration might be looking to maintain its influence in Gabon through new political elites outside of the Bongo family," said Çınar.