Sudan conflict deepens as al-Burhan, Hemedti's foreign backing soars
A screen grab shows black smoke and fire at Omdurman market, Omdurman, Sudan, May 15, 2023. (Reuters Photo)


As Sudan grapples with a devastating conflict, its military factions have turned to foreign backers in a bid to gain an edge, potentially prolonging and escalating the war between the Sudanese armed forces under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti.

The involvement of external actors has cast a shadow over Sudan since the ousting of former leader Omar al-Bashir during a popular uprising five years ago.

Al-Burhan's support

Al-Burhan's clearest ally has been Egypt, which shares a border with Sudan that more than 500,000 people have crossed since the fighting began.

In both countries, the military has assumed a dominant role in the decades since independence and has intervened following popular uprisings – in Egypt when former army chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi led the ousting of democratically elected President Mohamed Morsi a decade ago, and in Sudan when al-Burhan led a military takeover in 2021.

Since the war started, Egypt has received al-Burhan and his representatives on visits and has launched a peace process involving Sudan's neighbors that ran in parallel with mediation efforts led by the United States, Saudi Arabia and the African regional grouping IGAD.

It has joined calls for an effective cease-fire while saying it considers the conflict an internal matter for Sudan.

Another country that neighbors areas of Sudan controlled by the army and where al-Burhan has sought to shore up regional support is Eritrea, one of his first stops when he resumed foreign trips last year.

Since late 2023, sources say the army has also drawn on material support from Iran, including Iranian-made drones that helped it make significant gains in Omdurman, part of Sudan's wider capital.

Sudan's acting foreign minister, who is aligned with the army and visited Tehran this year as diplomatic ties that had been cut in 2016 were restored, denied weapons had been received.

From further afield, Ukrainian special forces have intervened on the army's side to counter alleged support for the RSF from the Russian mercenary group Wagner, according to several reports in Ukrainian and international media.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held an impromptu meeting with al-Burhan in Ireland in September to discuss "illegal armed groups financed by Russia."

Hemedti's support

For several years, Hemedti's most important ally has been the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Sudanese sources, analysts and diplomats said.

The UAE has aggressively sought to roll back extremist influence across the region, intervening in conflicts in countries including Libya and Yemen. Hemedti has presented himself as a bulwark against extremist-leaning factions that established deep roots in the army and other institutions under al-Bashir.

U.N. experts said reports that the UAE has sent arms to the RSF through eastern Chad are "credible," and that sources in Chad and Darfur reported cargo planes had delivered weapons and ammunition several times a week.

The UAE has denied making any such shipments and has said its role in Sudan is focused on humanitarian support and calls for de-escalation.

The UAE has also provided Hemedti, who grew rich through the gold trade, with a platform for channeling his finances, as well as public relations support for the RSF, according to Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King's College, London.

In a report published in January, the U.N. experts said the RSF, which has fostered tribal alliances stretching across Sudan's western borders, brought weapons into Sudan from Libya and the Central African Republic, and fuel from South Sudan.

Before the war broke out, Hemedti had cultivated ties with Russia. Western diplomats in Khartoum said in 2022 that Russia's Wagner Group was involved in illicit gold mining in Sudan and was spreading "disinformation." Hemedti said he advised Sudan to cut ties with Wagner after the U.S. imposed sanctions on the military contractor. Wagner said last year that it was no longer operating in Sudan.

Other influences

Saudi Arabia had close ties to al-Burhan and Hemedti dating to before the war. Both men were involved in sending Sudanese troops to the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen.

As it steps up its diplomatic ambitions across the Middle East, Riyadh has asserted itself in mediating over Sudan while also looking to protect its economic ambitions in the Red Sea region, said Anna Jacobs, senior Gulf analyst with Crisis Group.

"Saudi Arabia is focused on Red Sea security, which is integral to Saudi Vision 2030 and investments along the Red Sea like Neom," she said, referring to the futuristic city backed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS).

Saudi Arabia and the United States led unsuccessful efforts last year to negotiate a cease-fire in Sudan.

East African powers Ethiopia and Kenya also hold some sway due to their prominent role in regional diplomacy and previous mediation in Sudan.

South Sudan hosted peace talks between the Sudanese state and rebel groups in recent years, and was designated as one of the countries that could host talks over the current crisis.

Israel, which had been hoping to move forward in normalizing ties with Sudan, has also offered to host talks.

West's position

Before the war, Western powers had belatedly swung behind a transition toward elections as the military shared power with civilians after al-Bashir's overthrow, offering direct financial support that was frozen when al-Burhan and Hemedti staged a coup in 2021.

Led by the United States, Western powers supported a new transition deal after the coup that ended up triggering the eruption of fighting by creating a standoff over the future structure of the military.

Critics say the U.S. was too lenient with the generals.

"Their strategy was stability and their basic misconception was that they would get stability by backing the apparently strong and decisive and cohesive players who happened to be in power," said Alex de Waal, a Sudan expert and head of the World Peace Foundation at Tufts University.