Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro has been convicted of attempting a coup to remain in power after losing the 2022 election, marking the first time a former leader in Latin America’s largest economy has been found guilty of trying to overturn a democratic vote. Bolsonaro has consistently denied wrongdoing.
On Thursday, four of the five justices on a Supreme Court panel voted to convict him, sentencing Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison, though he will not be incarcerated immediately.
Prosecutors charged Bolsonaro with five crimes: attempting a coup after losing the presidential race to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, participating in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, damage qualified by violence, and deterioration of listed public heritage.
Evidence presented by the attorney general detailed how Bolsonaro allegedly convened Cabinet members and military officials to discuss issuing an emergency decree that would suspend election results under the guise of investigating unproven electoral fraud claims.
The ruling underscores Brazil’s judiciary taking decisive action to defend democratic institutions in the wake of challenges to electoral legitimacy.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case, said Bolsonaro carried out a series of acts from 2021 through Jan. 8, 2023, that constituted the attempted coup.
These actions included casting doubt on Brazil’s electronic voting system, drafting a decree to annul election results, and encouraging the Jan. 8, 2023, riots that aimed to force a military takeover.
Bolsonaro will not go to prison immediately but will remain under house arrest.
With the sentence announced, the court panel has up to 60 days to publish the ruling.
Once it is published, Bolsonaro’s attorneys have five days to file motions for clarification.
His lawyers have said they will attempt to appeal both the conviction and sentence before the full Supreme Court of 11 justices, although some experts consider acceptance unlikely.
"It’s unlikely, but not impossible, that there will be appeals to the full Supreme Court,” said Rafael Mafei, lawyer and law professor at the University of Sao Paulo and ESPM University. "But of course, the defenses will try, because they should,” he added.
The Supreme Court’s press office told The Associated Press that, under court jurisprudence, the full court can accept an appeal only if there are at least two dissenting votes in a ruling. In this case, only one of the five justices disagreed and called for Bolsonaro’s acquittal.
Once a firm sentence is issued, Bolsonaro could be sent to prison.
However, it is unlikely he would be transferred to a regular prison. As a former president, he is entitled to special incarceration, which could take place at the Federal Police’s main building in Brasília.
Bolsonaro’s trial drew renewed attention after U.S. President Donald Trump linked a 50% tariff on imported Brazilian goods to Bolsonaro’s legal situation, calling it a "witch hunt.”
Observers said the U.S. might announce new sanctions against Brazil following the trial. Trump said he was "very unhappy” with the conviction, and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio posted on X that the U.S. government "will respond accordingly to this witch hunt.”
Government officials or Supreme Court justices could be targeted by sanctions, including Justice de Moraes, who was sanctioned in late July, said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.
"The reaction could also involve broader visa restrictions for government officials, or more tariffs,” Stuenkel said. "It’s quite unpredictable.”
Despite his legal troubles, Bolsonaro remains a powerful political figure in Brazil.
The conviction could pressure him to designate a political heir to challenge Lula in next year’s general elections, potentially.
It could also push allied lawmakers to seek amnesty for him through Congress.
Bolsonaro had previously been barred from running for office until 2030 in a separate case.