Brazilian Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, is set to be confirmed Saturday as the Liberal Party's presidential candidate, launching his challenge against incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva despite mounting political obstacles that have complicated the start of his campaign.
The 45-year-old senator has yet to name a running mate and has struggled to secure the backing of key centrist parties that supported his father's successful presidential bid. He is also expected to appear without his stepmother, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, at São Paulo's Arena Mercado Livre Pacaembu after the two recently exchanged public criticism.
The convention's biggest attractions will be Argentine President Javier Milei, who is expected to attend, and endorsements promised by several members of President Donald Trump's administration. Even so, the event is likely to draw as much attention for the influential figures who are absent as for those in attendance.
Flavio Bolsonaro has also failed to recruit a prominent female running mate despite efforts to persuade former Agriculture Minister Tereza Cristina to join the ticket. Her Popular Party, a powerful force in Congress that played a crucial role during Jair Bolsonaro's presidency, had been expected to stay out of the presidential race. Its decision to distance itself from Sen. Bolsonaro has emerged as another setback for his campaign.
Flavio Bolsonaro "has faced a problem each week, sometimes two problems," said political consultant Thomas Traumann, who is based in Rio de Janeiro. "This convention might be the moment in which he says what he thinks, what he intends to do as president. So far, he has been on the defensive, saying the campaign only starts in August."
Lula's Workers' Party will confirm the 80-year-old president's reelection bid at a convention Aug. 2, also in São Paulo, one of the key battlegrounds in October's election.
Many of the troubles Sen. Bolsonaro has faced are self-inflicted. Support for his bid began to wane in May after he admitted requesting millions of dollars from jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro to pay for a film about his father's life. The revelation shocked many of his allies.
Flavio Bolsonaro then visited the White House and the U.S. State Department days later, expecting to receive a boost from Trump. Instead, many voters, business leaders and politicians now blame him for the U.S. government's decision to impose tariffs of up to 37.5% on Brazilian exports, which took effect Friday.
Even as most of Brazil was glued to television watching the World Cup, Sen. Bolsonaro faced another blow to his campaign. His stepmother, who is popular with Bolsonaro's core base of evangelical voters, released a video saying Sen. Bolsonaro had been disrespectful to her during a phone conversation.
Then, last week, Sen. Bolsonaro drew further criticism after repeating debunked claims about the reliability of Brazil's electronic voting system, echoing allegations that led the country's highest court to bar his father from holding public office.
Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup. He is now under house arrest, spending his days with his wife.
As preparations for the convention continued, the senator and his stepmother sought to mend their relationship in separate videos. Sen. Bolsonaro made the first move during a livestream, apologizing and saying he was being "disproportionately persecuted" by others, just as his father had been.
Michelle Bolsonaro accepted his apology Friday in what could be the first step toward reconciliation within the family as the campaign begins.
"Let's sit down, let's talk, let's adjust details, and together we will build a great army of people who do good to rescue our Brazil," she said in a video published Friday.
Traumann said Sen. Bolsonaro now faces a much tougher challenge appealing to moderate voters than he did when he launched his campaign in December.
"He was presenting himself as the moderate Bolsonaro, the one who took COVID-19 vaccines, who is kind to his two daughters," Traumann said.
"He has lost voters who oppose the Workers' Party but are also more moderate. Now he has the radical core of his campaign, and his challenge is to keep even that group from abandoning him."