President Donald Trump enters the fourth week of the war with Iran confronting a crisis that appears increasingly beyond his control.

Global energy prices are surging, U.S. allies are reluctant to join military efforts, and thousands of additional American troops are being deployed to the Middle East despite Trump’s early promise that the campaign would be a "short excursion."

On Friday, Trump declared the conflict "Militarily WON,” a claim starkly at odds with the reality on the ground. Iran continues to restrict Gulf oil and gas exports and has launched a series of missile and drone strikes across the region.

Vital infrastructure in both Iran and neighboring Gulf states has been targeted, contributing to a 50% spike in oil prices and triggering fears of a global economic shock.

Analysts say the president’s ability to control both the war and its narrative is weakening, leaving him exposed politically.

Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations, said, "Trump has built himself a box called the Iran war, and he can’t figure out how to get out of it."

White House officials insist the campaign has been a military success, pointing to the elimination of Iran’s top leaders, significant losses to its naval forces, and damage to its missile arsenal.

Diplomatic isolation and NATO friction

The limits of Trump’s power, diplomatic, military, and political, have become evident over the past week.

NATO allies and other partners resisted deploying forces to secure the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the U.S. largely alone in a mission critical to global oil transit.

Some White House aides reportedly advised Trump to seek a diplomatic "off-ramp” to limit the scope of military operations, though it remains unclear whether the president is considering such a course.

Analysts say the reluctance of allies reflects both caution over entanglement in a war they were not consulted on and frustration with Trump’s belittling of long-standing alliances since returning to office 14 months ago.

Tensions with Israel also surfaced. Trump claimed he was unaware of the Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, but Israeli officials confirmed the operation had been coordinated with U.S. forces.

With Operation Epic Fury now in motion, Trump faces stark choices: escalate further, potentially seizing Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or deploying troops along the coast to target missile launchers, or declare victory and withdraw, risking a Gulf region left vulnerable to a hostile, Iran that could still control critical shipping lanes. Iran has denied any intention of developing a nuclear weapon.

Economic shockwaves and domestic strain

The war has sent energy markets into turmoil. Oil prices have jumped 50%, while natural gas prices in Europe surged up to 35%.

Airlines, including United, have already cut flights by 5% in anticipation of sustained high fuel costs.

Republican strategist Dave Wilson warned that rising gas prices could weaken Trump’s domestic support: "People will start to ask: 'Why is the Strait of Hormuz determining whether I can take a vacation next month?'"

Trump’s grip over the MAGA movement is showing cracks.

While his base remains largely supportive, prominent influencers are publicly questioning the war. Analysts warn that continued troop deployments and rising living costs could erode loyalty, particularly if the conflict drags on with no clear outcome.

Military miscalculations and Iran’s resilience

Trump’s administration is grappling with miscalculations over how Iran would respond to what Tehran perceives as an existential threat. Iranian forces have countered with ballistic missiles and armed drones, striking neighboring Gulf states and largely shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, the channel through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows.

Former U.S. ambassador John Bass said, "They failed to think through the contingencies around ways in which a conflict with Iran could go sideways."

Despite claims of military success, Trump has struggled to control the narrative. He has publicly accused the media of "treason" for reporting on the war in ways he perceives as undermining his strategy.

Brett Bruen, a former Obama administration adviser, said, "He seems to have lost his mojo on messaging. He can’t explain why he’s taken this country to war or what comes next."

Escalation in Israel and Lebanon

The regional conflict intensified Saturday.

Israel struck targets in Beirut and Iran, claiming to hit Hezbollah positions in response to the militia’s support for Tehran in early March.

Over 1,000 people have been killed in Lebanon, and more than a million have been displaced in Israeli attacks.

Air raid sirens in Israel forced millions into shelters, while Iranian missiles fired at the U.S.-British base at Diego Garcia demonstrated Tehran’s reach, though no hits were reported.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, largely absent from public view since the initial Israeli attacks, issued a message claiming national unity and resistance, declaring the population had "dealt a disorienting blow to the enemy.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised concerns over Iran’s leadership, noting the supreme leader’s long public absence.

The Strait of Hormuz and global implications

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most shipping. U.S. allies such as Germany and France have called for a halt to hostilities before committing naval forces.

The Trump administration has temporarily eased sanctions on Iranian oil to allow shipments aimed at stabilizing global markets, but the path forward remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is deploying 2,500 Marines along with the amphibious assault ship Boxer and accompanying warships to the region.

No decision has been made about sending troops directly into Iran, though potential targets include the Iranian coast and Kharg Island.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows nearly two-thirds of Americans expect Trump to escalate into a large-scale ground war, while only 7% support such a move.