German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats took an early lead over their coalition partner SPD in a key regional vote in Rhineland-Palatinate, signaling a political rebound after a recent electoral loss.

The first forecast on the ARD broadcaster after polls closed showed ​the CDU at 30.5% of the ​vote, ⁠ahead of the SPD at 27%, pointing to a likely victory for Merz after his party narrowly lost an election in the neighbouring state of Baden-Wuerttemberg on March 8.

For Merz, battling to shore up Western support for Ukraine and facing the looming threat of an energy shock caused by the Iran war, victory in Rhineland-Palatinate would be a relief after the narrow ⁠loss ⁠his party suffered two weeks ago.

The result would be a heavy blow to his Berlin coalition partners in the SPD, still reeling from a disastrous score in Baden-Wuerttemberg, where they won just 5.5% of the vote, barely scraping over the threshold to enter parliament.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now clearly established ⁠as Germany's second strongest party at the national level, was set to take 20% of the vote, in line with ​the result they scored in Baden-Wuerttemberg.

Depending on the final outcome, ​the CDU and the SPD may form a coalition at the state level on the lines ⁠of ‌the coalition ‌in Berlin, with CDU candidate Gordon Schnieder ⁠on course to replace the sitting ‌SPD premier, Alexander Schweitzer.

The Rhineland-Palatinate election was the second ​of five state elections this ⁠year, ahead of closely watched races ⁠in September in Berlin and the eastern states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ⁠and Saxony-Anhalt, ​where the far-right AfD is hoping to win its first major election.