A 20% surge in global food prices could drive an additional 5 million middle- and low-income people in Arab countries into food insecurity, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia warned Thursday, citing mounting risks for fragile, import-dependent economies already under strain.

In a new policy brief, the agency labelled the risk as both immediate and escalating, particularly for fragile and conflict-affected states that rely heavily on food imports and have limited fiscal capacity to absorb economic shocks.

Titled "Conflict and its shockwaves: escalating impacts and risks for energy, water and food systems in the Arab region,” the report outlines how ongoing regional tensions are triggering interconnected disruptions across key sectors, with potentially severe consequences for economic stability and human security.

Energy markets have experienced the most immediate impact, according to ESCWA.

Gulf oil exports have fallen sharply – by as much as 75% to 90% since the start of the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict on Feb. 28, while oil prices have surged above $112 per barrel, driven in part by disruptions to shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

The resulting spike in transport and insurance costs is fuelling inflation and widening budget deficits across the region.

Water security is also under growing threat. Nearly 40 million people in Gulf countries depend on desalinated water sourced from the Gulf, leaving them highly exposed to potential damage to energy and desalination infrastructure or pollution linked to the conflict.

ESCWA warned that any prolonged disruption could quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis.

Food systems, already under strain, face further pressure as the region imports the majority of its cereals and maintains limited reserves – typically covering just over three months of consumption.