Fragile US-Iran deal takes shape to halt war, reopen shipping lanes
An Iranian woman walks next to a mural on a street, Tehran, Iran, May 11, 2026. (Reuters Photo)


A complex diplomatic framework is taking shape between the United States and Iran aimed at ending a three-month regional war and restoring global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as U.S. President Donald Trump says the outlines of a deal have already been "largely negotiated,” though officials stress that no final agreement has been reached.

The emerging plan, described by U.S. and regional officials speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of negotiations, links a phased military de-escalation with sweeping nuclear restrictions, sanctions relief and regional security guarantees. The talks are being conducted in parallel diplomatic channels following weeks of conflict that have drawn in Israel, Lebanon and Iranian-aligned armed groups across the region.

At its core, the draft proposal seeks to halt fighting across multiple fronts. That includes not only direct hostilities involving Iran and Israel but also the wider confrontation in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, which escalated shortly after the war began. Officials say the proposal envisions a coordinated ceasefire structure designed to stabilize multiple active theaters at once rather than isolate one conflict zone.

A second pillar focuses on restoring maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. The waterway effectively became a pressure point during the conflict, as shipping disruptions and threats to commercial vessels raised alarm across energy markets and triggered global supply concerns.

Under the emerging sequencing, reopening the strait would occur gradually and in tandem with the easing of restrictions on Iranian ports. The United States has maintained a naval blockade since mid-April, part of its effort to limit Tehran’s maritime exports and financial inflows. In return, Iran would regain limited access to global shipping routes and energy revenue streams.

Economic provisions are expected to be central to the deal’s viability. One official said the United States is prepared to allow structured sanctions waivers for Iranian oil sales, alongside negotiations over the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets held in foreign banks. These measures would not be immediate, but staged over a proposed 60-day negotiation window intended to convert an initial framework into a binding agreement.

The most sensitive component remains Iran’s nuclear program. According to officials briefed on the talks, Tehran would be required to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, estimated at nearly 1,000 pounds enriched up to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade levels. That material could either be diluted under international monitoring or transferred to a third country, with Russia discussed as a possible destination.

Washington has taken a firm position that sanctions relief would be contingent on verified removal of the stockpile. A U.S. official involved in the discussions said failure to comply would automatically block any economic easing measures.

Iran continues to insist its nuclear program is peaceful and rejects accusations that it is seeking nuclear weapons, but Western governments and the International Atomic Energy Agency have raised concerns about enrichment levels and stockpile growth in recent years.

Beyond nuclear and maritime issues, the draft reportedly touches on broader regional security commitments, including limits on interference in domestic affairs through allied militias. That references Iran’s longstanding network of partners, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and armed groups in Iraq and Yemen. However, officials say some of the most politically sensitive issues, including missile programs and the future of U.S. troop deployments in the region, remain largely outside the current framework.

Notably absent from the emerging agreement are provisions on regime change in Tehran or compensation demands tied to wartime damage, both of which had surfaced in earlier political rhetoric but appear to have been dropped from active negotiation tracks.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington is giving diplomacy "every chance” to succeed while warning that alternatives remain available if talks collapse. He described the framework as a structured opportunity to reopen shipping lanes, reduce nuclear tensions and enter a time-limited negotiation phase.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to the journalists before boarding his plane at Indira Gandhi International Airport, New Delhi, India, May 25, 2026. (Reuters Photo)

Oil markets have already reacted to the possibility of de-escalation, with prices falling on expectations that a reduction in risk could restore stability to global energy flows. Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz carried a significant share of global oil and gas trade, making it one of the most strategically sensitive waterways in the world.

Still, major gaps remain. Iranian officials have not confirmed acceptance of the framework, and state-linked outlets have accused Washington of continuing to block key demands, including the release of frozen funds. Hardline voices in Tehran have also signaled resistance to pressure-based diplomacy, warning against concessions made under military and economic strain.

For now, officials on both sides describe the process as an "in principle” understanding, with the next 60 days expected to determine whether it evolves into a binding agreement or collapses under unresolved disputes over verification, sequencing and enforcement.