Gaza truce talks at 'impasse' despite international efforts
Palestinians wade in rainwater as they walk past a destroyed mosque on the first day of the Eid al-Fitr festival marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, Deir el-Balah, Gaza Strip, Palestine, April 10, 2024. (AFP Photo)


Earlier this week, both Hamas and Israel set a 48-hour deadline for agreeing to a truce in Gaza; however, as of Thursday, no signs of agreement had emerged despite international mediators' efforts.

The U.S., Egypt and Qatar collaborated on a framework for a potential deal, which would involve a six-week cease-fire, the exchange of approximately 40 hostages for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, and the return of displaced individuals to their homes.

These proposals are aimed at securing the release of all 129 hostages from Gaza and the eventual withdrawal of all Israeli troops.

However, negotiations are currently deadlocked, according to Hasni Abidi from the Geneva-based Centre for Studies and Research for the Arab and Mediterranean World.

No side has yet given up.

"Hamas is studying the offer ... It has not responded yet," a Hamas spokesperson in Doha, Hossam Badran, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Hamas wants a permanent cease-fire in Gaza, which at this stage is unacceptable to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to "eliminate" all Hamas members.

He said Hamas continues to operate in Rafah, their last stronghold in southern Gaza, where some 1.5 million Palestinians have taken refuge.

Netanyahu has vowed to launch a ground invasion of Rafah, ignoring an international outcry against it, including from the United States, Israel's strongest ally.

The war in Gaza broke out following the Oct. 7 Hamas' incursion on Israel.

That attack resulted in the deaths of around 1,200 people.

In retaliation, Israel vowed to destroy Hamas, and its blistering military campaign since then has already killed 33,482 people, most of them women and children, according to the Health Ministry in Hamas-run Gaza.

Tactical truce

Analysts feel that Israel would benefit from a truce, even if it was just a tactical move, given that it has reportedly lost 260 soldiers inside Gaza already with thousands more injured.

On Sunday, Israel said it had withdrawn all its troops from southern Gaza but had one brigade holding a central strip running across the territory.

Daniel Byman of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service said pulling out those soldiers, including from the city of Khan Younis, was all about preparing for an assault on Rafah.

As Israel is increasingly isolated diplomatically over the high civilian casualties in Gaza, Abidi said, the drawdown gives it much-needed breathing space, especially when it comes to handling Washington, which it "has failed to convince" when it comes to its war strategy.

While Washington is working to avoid an escalation in Lebanon, Syria and Iran, an April 1 strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus that was widely blamed on Israel risks "shattering" this strategy, he said.

Exasperated U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed to continue supporting Israel, but this is dependent on its military restraint and improvement in humanitarian assistance to Gazans.

Netanyahu is also under immense pressure from desperate and angry families of the hostages still being held in Gaza.

Catching its breath

However, a truce could "shatter" the ruling Israeli coalition because of opposition from its far-right members to any concessions to Hamas, said Byman.

This is a real dilemma "for someone like Netanyahu who is not known for putting the country before his political ambition," he said.

Abidi said, "I don't see how Netanyahu could claim victory if none of the top" Hamas operatives in Gaza are captured or killed.

Israeli officials are particularly targeting Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, and Mohammed Deif, the leader of the group there.

Sinwar has been accused of being the mastermind of the Oct. 7 attack.

But for Hamas, a truce would be a symbolic victory.

It would also allow it "to reorganize and carry out ambushes against the (Israeli) army," said Omer Dostri of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

"Hamas' goal is to catch its breath in the hope that international pressure will eventually bring about an end to the war," he said.

A truce would also make Hamas look better in the eyes of the battered and hungry population of Gaza, said Abidi.

He said that even if Netanyahu promises a future without Hamas in the small coastal territory, the Palestinian group is already preparing "for the day after."