The world’s stockpiles of nuclear weapons are expected to increase in coming years, a Swedish arms watchdog said Monday, reversing a decline seen since the end of the Cold War.
Despite a slight reduction in the total number of nuclear warheads to an estimated 12,705 worldwide, the peace researchers predict in their annual report published Monday that this number will probably grow again in the course of the coming decade.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, said that all nine nuclear-armed countries are increasing or upgrading their arsenals.
"There are clear indications that the reductions that have characterized global nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War have ended," said Hans M. Kristensen, a researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Program and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists.
The new SIPRI data refer to January 2022, the month before Russia invaded Ukraine. It is still a little too early to draw conclusions about how Russia's war will ultimately affect the nuclear situation in the world, Kristensen said.
"If the nuclear-armed states take no immediate and concrete action on disarmament, then the global inventory of nuclear warheads could soon begin to increase for the first time since the Cold War," his colleague Matt Korda said.
NATO, meanwhile, is reacting to the Ukraine war by emphasizing the importance of its nuclear weapons.
The risk of a nuclear confrontation has increased as a result of the Ukraine war, Kristensen also said. The danger is that the war could escalate into a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO, he said.
The ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan, growing hostilities on the China-India border and North Korea's ongoing nuclear efforts also play a role.
The United States and Russia, which hold 90% of the world’s atomic weapons, saw their inventories decline in 2021 due to the dismantling of warheads retired from military service years ago. Their useable military stockpiles remained relatively stable and within the limits set by a nuclear arms reduction treaty, SIPRI said.
Both countries have extensive and costly programs underway to replace and modernize nuclear warheads, delivery systems and production facilities, according to SIPRI.
The research institute said that the other nuclear states – Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea – are either developing or deploying new weapon systems, or have announced their intention to do so. Israel has never publicly acknowledged having such weapons.
"All of the nuclear-armed states are increasing or upgrading their arsenals and most are sharpening nuclear rhetoric and the role nuclear weapons play in their military strategies," said Wilfred Wan, the director of SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Program. "This is a very worrying trend."