Ankara and Baghdad are adding a new front to their energy partnership, moving beyond pipeline transit and toward upstream production after Türkiye's state-run company took a stake in a major consortium developing oil fields in Iraq's Kirkuk region.

The agreement, announced on Tuesday, will see the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) acquiring a 15% share in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk Limited (BPECKL), a consortium including BP and ConocoPhillips, to develop several of Iraq's largest oil fields.

The deal was signed ahead of a meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who was in Ankara for talks on security, trade, energy, transportation and water management, as well as joint infrastructure projects between the two neighbors.

The consortium will work to increase production at the Baba and Avanah domes, as well as the Bai Hassan, Jambur and Khabbaz fields in Kirkuk.

The fields currently produce around 300,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd), according to the latest publicly available field-level production data from Iraq's Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI).

Bai Hassan accounts for approximately 133,000 bpd, followed by the Baba and Avanah domes with around 107,000 bpd, while Jambur and Khabbaz produce roughly 38,000 bpd and 25,000 bpd, respectively.

Erdoğan called the agreement "historic," while Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said TPAO will work together with BPECKL partners to bring the approximately ⁠3 billion barrel reserve potential into production.

BP confirmed the deal and said it welcomed the partnership with TPAO.

The British energy major estimates the contract area could ultimately hold resource potential of up to 20 billion barrels.

Partnership expands beyond pipeline transit

The agreement comes as Ankara and Baghdad seek to broaden their energy relationship beyond crude oil transportation through the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline, whose 1973 bilateral agreement expired on Monday.

The neighbors are soon expected to sign a deal to keep the Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline open for another year.

On Tuesday, Erdoğan said Türkiye aimed to sign a comprehensive energy cooperation deal with Iraq as soon as possible.

He also said Türkiye could get up to 1 million barrels of oil a day under a cooperation plan discussed on Tuesday with al-Zaidi.

Al-Zaidi, who emerged as a consensus candidate in Iraq after months of deadlock over the premiership following last year’s parliamentary elections, was visiting Ankara in the wake of trips to Washington and Tehran.

Following his talks with U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this month, U.S. companies signed agreements and partnerships worth around $60 billion with Iraq, including deals intended to create alternative routes for shipping oil out of the Persian Gulf.

Minister Bayraktar has said Türkiye and Iraq are negotiating a new framework that would cover not only crude oil but also natural gas and wider energy infrastructure cooperation.

As part of the transition, Türkiye has proposed allowing state pipeline operator BOTAŞ to continue transporting Iraqi crude for one year while negotiations on a new long-term agreement continue.

Bayraktar said Iraq requires transportation capacity of around 750,000 bpd. Although current flows stand at roughly 180,000-200,000 bpd, Türkiye is prepared to make the full capacity available once exports resume.

One project under consideration is a pipeline that would connect southern Iraq’s Basra to western Iraq’s Haditha and from there to the Ceyhan port in Türkiye and the port of Baniyas on Syria’s coast.

The Kirkuk partnership, meanwhile, is seen as a key step toward TPAO's long-term goal of producing the equivalent of 1 million barrels of oil and natural gas per day.

Analysts see strategic significance

Kate Dourian, a non-resident fellow at the Washington Institute for Arab Gulf States, said TPAO's participation is closely linked to ongoing negotiations over the future of the Iraq-Türkiye pipeline.

Following the expiration of the previous agreement, both sides are working toward a new framework that is expected to include oil, natural gas and electricity flows, she said.

The interim arrangement would allow Iraqi crude exports through Türkiye's Mediterranean port of Ceyhan to continue while negotiations proceed.

Dourian said raising pipeline throughput from around 220,000 bpd to the targeted 750,000 bpd would require further development of the Kirkuk fields, making TPAO's investment strategically important.

She also noted that partnering with BP and ConocoPhillips could position TPAO for future upstream projects in Iraq and potentially in other countries where the two international energy companies operate.

Mehmet Öğütçü, chair of the London Energy Club, said the partnership represents a milestone in Türkiye's strategy of becoming not only an energy importer but also a producer and developer of energy resources.

He said energy security is strengthened not simply by purchasing oil but by participating directly in production, adding that Iraq's estimated 145 billion barrels of proven reserves make it one of the world's largest holders of oil resources.

According to Öğütçü, TPAO's presence alongside BP and ConocoPhillips in one of the world's most productive oil basins will strengthen Türkiye's position in international energy markets, expand the company's overseas production portfolio, increase foreign currency revenues and contribute to the country's long-term energy security.

He added that restoring the strategic role of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline would also support Türkiye's ambition to become a regional energy trading hub.

"This agreement should not be viewed merely as a 15% equity stake," Öğütçü said. "Its real value lies in TPAO joining global energy companies in one of the world's most important oil provinces. Over the long term, the project represents a strategic gain for Türkiye's energy security, international production capacity and regional energy hub ambitions."