The last days of summer, with almost the whole of September, will be packed with a slew of key data for the Turkish economy, alongside a closely anticipated economic road map that is set to outline new priorities and targets.
Türkiye faces a busy economic agenda starting as of this week, with markets focusing on growth, exports, inflation and the new Medium-Term Program (MTP).
On Aug. 31, all attention will turn to second quarter growth figures, which will be released by the country's statistical institute. The Turkish economy grew by 2.5% in the first quarter of this year.
Economists participating in the survey conducted by Anadolu Agency (AA) forecast that gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 2.8% on a yearly basis in the second quarter.
On the same day, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will also release labor market data for July.
Exports, inflation data
Meanwhile, the provisional foreign trade data for August are expected to be released on Sept. 3 by the Ministry of Trade and the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM).
The foreign trade figures are expected to be announced in Ankara by Trade Minister Ömer Bolat and TIM President Mustafa Gültepe.
Exports reached a record $25.6 billion in July, marking the highest July export figure in Türkiye's history and the second-best monthly performance on record.
Inflation figures are also expected to be announced on the same day.
In July, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.78% month-over-month, while the domestic producer price index (PPI) increased by 1.52%. Annual consumer inflation stood at 31.75%, while producer prices increased 27.83% year-over-year, according to official data.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, in his earlier remarks, said that the stickiness in services inflation had eased as a result of the measures taken and the ongoing disinflation process. He added that Türkiye would not compromise on fiscal discipline or its goal of achieving lasting price stability while effectively managing risks arising from geopolitical developments.
TurkStat is also set to announce other monthly statistics, including industrial production for July. In June, industrial production increased by 0.1% month-on-month but declined by 1.4% year-on-year.
Focus turns to interest-rate decision
Markets will also be closely watching the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).
The committee, which will meet for the sixth time this year, is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Sept. 10.
At its most recent meeting, the committee decided to keep the one-week repo auction rate – the policy rate – unchanged at 37%.
While it is unclear would the bank move to cut its rate after keeping it on hold since the start of Iran conflict, with decision to resume its weekly auctions, markets and economists see it a step toward easing of monetary policy.
On Sept. 11, the central bank will also release balance-of-payments data for July.
Türkiye recorded a current-account deficit of nearly $4.2 billion in June, while the current account excluding gold and energy posted a surplus of $1.46 billion.
Budget, property sales data
The second half of the month will also see critical data, including central budget figures for August on Sept. 15, as well as housing and commercial property sales statistics for August, on Sept. 17.
In July, a total of 123,603 homes were sold across Türkiye, marking a contraction of 17% from the same month a year earlier. Commercial property sales also declined by 4.1%, to some 16,733 units.
MTP, new targets
In addition to macroeconomic indicators, the details of the Medium-Term Program, which serves as a three-year road map for the Turkish economy, will be closely monitored next month.
The MTP will establish key macroeconomic targets for the 2027-2029 period, including economic growth, inflation, employment, exports and the current account balance.
"In the first week of September, we hope to share the updated MTP with our society," Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said regarding the work on the program.
"Our primary priority is, of course, price stability, while at the same time continuing to improve our growth, employment and investment."
Following the work on the program, preparations for the 2027 budget are also expected to pick up pace. The budget proposal will be submitted to the Parliament by Oct. 17, as per the AA report.
The fresh data comes amid renewed optimism following recent figures that showed that economic confidence climbed above the 100 threshold in August.
The cost of insuring exposure to Türkiye's sovereign debt also declined to its lowest level in about six-and-a-half months, with CDS hovering at around 217 basis points.