The number of unemployed people in Türkiye rose slightly in October, official data showed Monday, after hitting a four-year low a month earlier.
The jobless rate rose 0.1 percentage points month-over-month to 10.2% in October, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) data showed. It is up from 9.8% in August, which marked the rate dropping to single digits for the first time since January 2018 and the lowest level since March 2014.
In October versus September, the number of unemployed people aged 15 and over increased by 57,000 to nearly 3.53 million, according to the data.
The number of employed people was up by 229,000 to over 31.2 million, placing the employment rate at 48% with a 0.3 percentage point increase from September.
Youth unemployment, covering those in the 15-24 age group, climbed nearly two points to just below 22%, TurkStat said.
Keeping unemployment low constitutes the key segment of the government’s new economic policy, which it says has helped save millions of jobs.
The government over the last 14 months prioritized low interest rates to boost exports, production, investment and create new jobs as part of an economic program, dubbed the Türkiye Economy Model, which aims to lower inflation by flipping the country’s chronic current account deficit to a surplus.
In response to a steep decline in the Turkish lira a year ago, authorities adopted a policy of tightly controlling foreign exchange, and officials expect the national currency to remain steady well into 2023.
In another relief for the government, annual inflation is expected to drop to about 40% by mid-June 2023, from 85% in October which marked a 24-year high.
It is expected to decline sharply as a result of the base effect at the end of the year and falling energy prices globally.
The government forecasts inflation will be near 20% at the end of 2023.
Much will also depend on what is expected to be a hefty hike in administered wages as of January.
The lira dropped 44% against the U.S. dollar last year and weakened a further 29% this year. Yet, it has held steady since early October.
Economic growth has remained buoyant but has been expected to have cooled down in the second half of this year.
The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.9% in the July-September period, which meant Türkiye still had one of the best performances among G-20 countries.
To counter the expected slowdown, Türkiye’s central bank embarked on an easing cycle between August and November, slashing its policy rate by 500 basis points to 9%.
Given the expected slowdown, economists expect full-year growth of 5%, according to surveys, after a strong first half of the year. Ankara expects a 5% growth this year and in 2023.