UK inflation shoots up to 6.2% to hit fresh 30-year high
People shop next to the clubcard price branding inside a branch of a Tesco Extra Supermarket in London, Britain, Feb. 10, 2022. (Reuters Photo)


Inflation in the United Kingdom shot up faster than expected in February to hit a new 30-year high, worsening a historic squeeze on household finances.

The reading comes as Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is under pressure to ease the cost-of-living squeeze in a budget update later on Wednesday.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said consumer prices rose by 6.2% in February after a 5.5% rise in January, its highest rate since March 1992.

Britain now has the second-highest annual inflation rate among G-7 countries, behind only the United States as global commodity and energy prices soar, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of 5.9% and only three of the 39 respondents had expected such a strong reading.

The ONS highlighted household energy bills – up almost 25% compared to the previous year – and petrol as the biggest drivers of February’s price jump.

In a blow to poorer households, the ONS said food prices were rising across the board, unlike in normal times when some prices typically go up and others fall.

"Inflation rose steeply in February as prices increased for a wide range of goods and services, for products as diverse as food to toys and games," said ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner.

"The price of goods leaving U.K. factories has also been rising substantially and is now at its highest rate for 14 years," he added.

Sunak has come under increasing pressure to announce further measures to help consumers facing what one economist has called "the biggest year-over-year fall in household incomes in a generation."

Utility bills are set to rise by more than 50% in April, on top of a planned income tax increase and an acceleration of consumer prices for everything from fuel to food at the fastest pace in decades.

Countries across the world are battling surging inflation fuelled by rocketing commodity prices over the Ukraine war and after nations exited pandemic lockdowns.

Sunak will aim to show at 12:30 p.m. GMT that he is helping Britons through the worst cost-of-living squeeze in decades.

Options include a fuel duty cut, pushing up the threshold at which people start to pay into the social security system and ensuring welfare payments keep up with inflation.

Economists now estimate inflation will peak at close to 9% this year as the war in Ukraine boosts food and energy prices. That’s double the 4.4% forecast government advisers made in October.

Accelerating inflation is also likely to curtail economic growth and squeeze government finances.

Some economists now suggest the gross domestic product (GDP) will grow less than 1% next year, compared with the 2.1% forecast by the Office of Budget Responsibility when Sunak released his fall budget.

Politicians and consumer advocates have suggested that the government could help ease the cost-of-living crisis by delaying a planned 1.25% income tax increase set to take effect next month.

Other suggestions include cutting taxes on gasoline and diesel fuel, raising benefits for low-income households and doing more to help people pay utility bills that are set to rise by 54% next month because of the soaring costs of natural gas.

Yael Selfin, a chief economist at KPMG U.K., said the figures would also put pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to keep on raising interest rates, but she said it was still likely that price growth would peak before long.

"Provided inflation expectations can be managed and global commodity prices stabilize by next year, we should see inflation returning to the Bank of England’s 2% target by mid-2024," Selfin said.

"This may require fewer rate rises than markets currently anticipate," she said.

Dan Boardman-Weston, chief investment officer at BRI Wealth Management, said raising rates at a time of high household bills and rising taxes could stifle the economic recovery.

"The Bank will need to carefully balance the need to try and tame inflation whilst not tipping the economy into a recession," he said.

The ONS said consumer prices rose by 0.8% in month-over-month terms, marking the biggest February rise since 2009.

Last week, the BoE raised its forecast for annual inflation to peak above 8% – more than four times its target – during the April-June period.

Core inflation, which excludes the direct impact of food and energy costs, rose to 5.2% from 4.4% – also its highest since March 1992.

Inflation pressure ahead continued to build as manufacturers increased their prices by 10.1%, the biggest annual rise since September 2008.