By investing in renewable energy rather than continuing to rely on fossil fuels, Turkey could create more than 300,000 new jobs by 2030, according to a newly published United Nations report.
Turkey could reap huge economic benefits in shifting new investments from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, said a joint analysis released Tuesday by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Labour Organization (ILO).
Turkey could increase its GDP by as much as $8 billion per year, create more than 300,000 new jobs by 2030 and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% compared to the 2019 level – all by investing in renewable energy rather than continuing to rely on fossil fuels, the report said.
Titled "Social and Employment Impacts of Climate Change and Green Economy Policies in Türkiye," the study said investing in wind and solar power to satisfy future energy needs would thus yield not only environmental benefits but also strong economic ones, in terms of growth, job creation and the trade balance.
‘Win-win scenario’
"Discussions of climate policies tend to focus on the costs, suggesting that there is a trade-off between protecting the planet and safeguarding the economy," said Louisa Vinton, the UNDP resident representative in Turkey.
Calling green energy "a win-win scenario," Vinton said that is why there is room for the country’s leaders to take more ambitious steps in this regard.
For his part, Numan Özcan, director of ILO’s Turkey office, said climate activism will only work if a just transition can be ensured.
"In our view, the green economy could be the model that Türkiye needs to achieve its vision of high-income prosperity," he said, adding that fast-tracking green and low-carbon policies could also address challenges that the Turkish economy is currently facing.
To conduct the study, an independent Norway-based research company, SINTEF, used a macroeconomic simulation called the "green jobs assessment model," which was developed for the ILO and has so far been applied in 15 countries, according to the report.
For the report, the simulation compared a "business as usual" scenario for Turkey with a "green" scenario to discover the potential outcomes of transition to all new energy investments from fossil fuels into renewables like solar and wind power.
Range of positive outcomes
In addition to the significant numerical gains in employment, the green shift would yield a range of other positive outcomes, the report said.
It highlighted that job gains would be widespread, benefitting all but three of 66 different Turkish economic sectors.
Renewable energy would create greater demand for higher-quality jobs, requiring investment in skills, it added. Since green energy is cheaper, renewables would leave aside funding for areas such as energy efficiency, it noted.
Investing in renewable energy would increase demand for Turkish products and services, the report said, adding that diversification would make the Turkish electricity system more resilient to climate and price shocks.
The fossil fuel industry is the main loser in the process, requiring preparations for a "just transition" for sector workers, the report noted. To ease the transition, the analysis recommends modernizing the technical and vocational education systems to supply the new skill sets required for renewable technologies.
Social protection systems will also need to be refined to shift labor power from declining industries like coal to new ones. To secure funding for these measures, the study proposes creating a "just transition fund" that could be financed through a tax on carbon-intensive households.