Türkiye on Monday revised its estimate of natural gas reserves in the Black Sea upward by nearly a third after a new field was located and after appraisal work at a previous site, as it plans to make the first delivery to the national grid by the end of the first quarter of 2023.
The total volume of gas Türkiye has gradually discovered in the offshore fields now amounts to 710 billion cubic meters (bcm), President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said, a find that is estimated to have a market value of $1 trillion.
Speaking after a Cabinet meeting, Erdoğan announced Türkiye’s first drillship Fatih had discovered a new reserve of 58 bcm in the Çaycuma-1 field, in addition to revising up an estimated volume in the Sakarya field to 652 bcm, from the previous 540 bcm.
"As a result of the analysis of the data, we have revised the previously declared 540 billion cubic meter reserve to 652 billion cubic meters," Erdoğan said, adding that Türkiye had drilled 13 wells in the Sakarya field.
"With our new discovery at Çaycuma-1, our gas reserve in the Black Sea has risen by 170 billion cubic meters to 710 billion cubic meters," he said.
The ultimate goal, Erdoğan said, is to declare energy independence from foreign oil and natural gas as soon as possible.
Türkiye is almost completely dependent on imports to cover its energy needs, which leaves it particularly vulnerable to rising costs that skyrocketed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
1st delivery at end of March
The first natural gas from the Black Sea field will be delivered to the national grid by the end of March, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Fatih Dönmez said on Tuesday.
In a press briefing on the new reserve, Dönmez said the Fatih drillship had started drilling in the Çaycuma-1 well on Oct. 29.
"We finished two months of work there with a discovery. We calculated recoverable reserves (in the Çaycuma-1 well) to be 58 billion cubic meters," the minister said, adding that the well is located in the northwest of the Sakarya gas field.
Türkiye announced its first gas discovery in the Black Sea about two years ago in the Tuna-1 well, which was then estimated at 405 bcm and was the world’s largest offshore find in 2020. It made another discovery in 2021 in the Amasra-1 well, which was at the time said to be holding around 135 bcm of gas.
Ankara has been working with DeGolyer and MacNaughton, a leading independent consulting firm focused on the petroleum industry, on the Black Sea reserves’ re-evaluation after it completed drilling works in 13 wells and 3D modeling of the Sakarya gas field, according to Dönmez.
"Our teams are working at full speed in accordance with the (latest) business plan. In the 100th year of our republic, we hope to bring this gas (to our citizens). Hopefully, we will have supplied the first of the gas to the system by the end of March."
Erdoğan said that the newly discovered Çaycuma-1 field would be connected to the Sakarya field and from there to the national grid.
Türkiye, which has little oil and gas, is highly dependent on imports from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, as well as LNG imports from Qatar, the United States, Nigeria and Algeria for its supply.
Last year, 45% of the gas used in Türkiye came from Russia and the rest from Iran and Azerbaijan.
Türkiye’s annual gas consumption has risen from 48 bcm in 2020 to a record 60 billion in 2021, according to official figures.
Erdoğan earlier this month said this year's consumption is expected to stand at around 53.5 bcm. Earlier estimates had put the figure at up to 63 bcm, but the power generated from renewable resources this year drove the gas consumption downward.
Gas processing facility almost complete
Energy has driven price increases in Türkiye in the past year, before they moderated last month, signaling that inflation pressures that have been plaguing consumers for about a year and a half might be finally easing.
Annual inflation dropped below 85% last month after touching a 24-year high in October. It is expected to decline sharply in the period ahead as a result of the base effect and falling energy prices globally.
Meanwhile, Türkiye has also been running exploring works for hydrocarbon resources in the Mediterranean.
It officially boasts a fleet of four drillships, after Abdülhamid Han, the latest and most advanced of the vessels, arrived in mid-May. The seventh-generation vessel joined Fatih, Kanuni and Yavuz, all sixth-generation ships purchased in recent years.
In addition to Fatih, Yavuz and Kanuni are also on missions in the Black Sea, while the Abdülhamid Han is in the Mediterranean.
"This new discovery will pave the way for similar explorations in other geological fields adjacent to the region. We will launch new drillings as soon as possible," Erdoğan said on Monday.
Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin has floated the idea of setting up a "gas hub" in Türkiye following explosions that damaged Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea and halted its direct gas sales to Germany.
Erdoğan backed Putin’s idea and both countries instructed authorities to work on a road map.
Türkiye has almost completed the pipelaying process of the 170-kilometer-deep (105-mile-deep) seabed pipeline that will feed the Black Sea gas into the national grid.
Dönmez said the onshore gas processing facility that is being set up at the port of Filyos in the northern province of Zonguldak is 85% complete.
Türkiye looks to transfer 10 million cubic meters (mcm) of natural gas per day in the initial phase, while Dönmez said the infrastructure was set up to enable this figure to peak at 40 million cubic meters through 2026.