Turkey's battle for al-Bab: Goals and risks
The Syrian town of al-Bab, which was devastated for a long time at the hands of Daesh terrorists, is now in a strategic position that will shape the Middle East's future
It has been 172 days since Turkey started Operation Euphrates Shield, the ongoing cross-border operation in northern Syria. The Free Syrian Army (FSA) supported by Turkish troops first entered Jarablus aiming to cleanse the border of Daesh elements, and then enter al-Rai stretching the Daesh-free zone on the Turkish border to 60 kilometers. In fact, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) already initiated an operation against Daesh long before Operation Euphrates Shield last year, pounding Daesh targets with artillery shells. But in a short time, Turkish troops and the FSA captured the "prophesized" town of Dabiq and started to march to the strategically important town of al-Bab. The TSK-backed FSA now controls a territory approximately 2,000 square kilometers square in northern Syria, and it is obvious that the operation is going successfully from a military point of view.
However, it is not a piece of cake. It was expected early on that the fight will get tougher while the troops go deeper into the country; capturing al-Bab would not be as fast as the other towns, such as Dabiq, and some complications might emerge as proximity to players on the ground other than Daesh increases in the approach to al-Bab. Urban warfare is not as easy as a two-front war, so slow progress was to be expected. The troops have cared as much as they can for the civilians in the region who have unfortunately been used as a shield by Daesh. The operation has been going ahead checking streets, houses, and even rooms one by one. On the other hand, the U.S.-led coalition forces have not provided worthwhile support to the operation. As a matter of fact, after the fall of Aleppo, Russia has filled the vacuum and supported the troops on the ground several times, when Russian air forces bombarded Daesh positions in the south of al-Bab in coordination with Turkish forces. Such moves take place
in the framework of the promised joint struggle against Daesh and al-Nusra in parallel with the cease-fire in Syria brokered by Russia and Turkey, and started at the end of 2016.
Turkish forces launched an intensive operation last week, and entered the city from the west side. It is a sign that the end of the seige of al-Bab is near, and the town will be liberated soon. But in the meantime, the Syrian regime is marching towards al-Bab as well. While the Turkish-backed FSA seized the city from western, northern and partially eastern sides, the Syrian army is getting closer to the south of the town.
Turkey had no plan to march to the south of al-Bab under Operation Euphrates Shield, as this would mean confronting the Syrian regime. But it definitely has no intention of leaving al-Bab to the Syrian regime as well. Right from the beginning, Turkey's goal has been to create a safe zone as it planned and prevent threats targeting Turkey from the Syrian border. Sooner or later, Daesh will have to flee from al-Bab to Raqqa, and al-Bab will stay at the border between Russia and the Iran-backed regime and the Turkey-backed FSA. Now, the question is where and how that border will be formed.
On the morning of Feb. 9, something that sheds light on the current situation on the ground happened. A Russian jet taking off from the Khmeimim Air Base struck a building in al-Bab in which Turkish soldiers were located. Russian authorities defined the incident, where three Turkish soldiers died and 11 others were injured, as an accident. Russian Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov called his Turkish counterpart Gen. Hulusi Akar, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, and Russian President Vladimir Putin called President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan without delay – strengthening the possibility that it was really an accident and the idea that Russia did not intentionally target Turkish soldiers. It is within the bounds of possibility that there might be a lack of technical coordination between Turkish and Russian military systems, and that there would be some complications that cause friendly fire during operations in such a narrow zone.
However, Russian Presidency Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov's statement on Feb. 10 saying that the Russians took the coordinates of that building from the Turkish Army was confusing. Then the Turkish General Staff stated that the Turkish troops did not just go to that building, but had been there for 10 days. Turkish government spokesman Numan Kurtulmuş said it was an accident that occurred as a result of a coordination mistake, but did not give details.
Without knowing the technical details, we cannot reach a conclusion regarding the incident. However, even if this grave incident was an accident, it represents the significant risks of multiple operations trapped in a confined space just like the situation around al-Bab. Turkish forces confronting regime forces, reportedly two kilometers away from al-Bab, depend on sound coordination with Russia. If the coordination problems between Russian and Turkish forces are not resolved soon, more unwanted incidents might be inevitable.
The importance of the coordination can be better understood given that it is not that easy for Turkey to have full confidence in Russia while the regime forces are moving toward al-Bab. The same goes for Russia, as Ankara has been visited by some critical figures, including CIA Director Mike Pompeo. According to reports, many things were discussed in his meetings with Turkish authorities, including the Raqqa operation. The status quo in Syria, which is already on very fragile ground, will be reshaped after the administration change at the White House. And al-Bab is at the very center of this very complex situation.
However, it is not a piece of cake. It was expected early on that the fight will get tougher while the troops go deeper into the country; capturing al-Bab would not be as fast as the other towns, such as Dabiq, and some complications might emerge as proximity to players on the ground other than Daesh increases in the approach to al-Bab. Urban warfare is not as easy as a two-front war, so slow progress was to be expected. The troops have cared as much as they can for the civilians in the region who have unfortunately been used as a shield by Daesh. The operation has been going ahead checking streets, houses, and even rooms one by one. On the other hand, the U.S.-led coalition forces have not provided worthwhile support to the operation. As a matter of fact, after the fall of Aleppo, Russia has filled the vacuum and supported the troops on the ground several times, when Russian air forces bombarded Daesh positions in the south of al-Bab in coordination with Turkish forces. Such moves take place
in the framework of the promised joint struggle against Daesh and al-Nusra in parallel with the cease-fire in Syria brokered by Russia and Turkey, and started at the end of 2016.
Turkish forces launched an intensive operation last week, and entered the city from the west side. It is a sign that the end of the seige of al-Bab is near, and the town will be liberated soon. But in the meantime, the Syrian regime is marching towards al-Bab as well. While the Turkish-backed FSA seized the city from western, northern and partially eastern sides, the Syrian army is getting closer to the south of the town.
Turkey had no plan to march to the south of al-Bab under Operation Euphrates Shield, as this would mean confronting the Syrian regime. But it definitely has no intention of leaving al-Bab to the Syrian regime as well. Right from the beginning, Turkey's goal has been to create a safe zone as it planned and prevent threats targeting Turkey from the Syrian border. Sooner or later, Daesh will have to flee from al-Bab to Raqqa, and al-Bab will stay at the border between Russia and the Iran-backed regime and the Turkey-backed FSA. Now, the question is where and how that border will be formed.
On the morning of Feb. 9, something that sheds light on the current situation on the ground happened. A Russian jet taking off from the Khmeimim Air Base struck a building in al-Bab in which Turkish soldiers were located. Russian authorities defined the incident, where three Turkish soldiers died and 11 others were injured, as an accident. Russian Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov called his Turkish counterpart Gen. Hulusi Akar, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, and Russian President Vladimir Putin called President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan without delay – strengthening the possibility that it was really an accident and the idea that Russia did not intentionally target Turkish soldiers. It is within the bounds of possibility that there might be a lack of technical coordination between Turkish and Russian military systems, and that there would be some complications that cause friendly fire during operations in such a narrow zone.
However, Russian Presidency Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov's statement on Feb. 10 saying that the Russians took the coordinates of that building from the Turkish Army was confusing. Then the Turkish General Staff stated that the Turkish troops did not just go to that building, but had been there for 10 days. Turkish government spokesman Numan Kurtulmuş said it was an accident that occurred as a result of a coordination mistake, but did not give details.
Without knowing the technical details, we cannot reach a conclusion regarding the incident. However, even if this grave incident was an accident, it represents the significant risks of multiple operations trapped in a confined space just like the situation around al-Bab. Turkish forces confronting regime forces, reportedly two kilometers away from al-Bab, depend on sound coordination with Russia. If the coordination problems between Russian and Turkish forces are not resolved soon, more unwanted incidents might be inevitable.
The importance of the coordination can be better understood given that it is not that easy for Turkey to have full confidence in Russia while the regime forces are moving toward al-Bab. The same goes for Russia, as Ankara has been visited by some critical figures, including CIA Director Mike Pompeo. According to reports, many things were discussed in his meetings with Turkish authorities, including the Raqqa operation. The status quo in Syria, which is already on very fragile ground, will be reshaped after the administration change at the White House. And al-Bab is at the very center of this very complex situation.